Trifectas
 

Hi everyone, I have a problem.

Im looking for a formula that estimates the trifecta payout based on the tab prices of the runners.. For example three runners, A at $2.50, B at $2.70 and C at $12.00.. You can say that by multiplying the prices together as A*B*C would give you a reasonable estimate, but the combination ABC will give you the same answer as CBA which would logically pay a greater dividend.. Im trying to work out how much more I should put on ABC as opposed to BCA and CBA etc. to return basically the same return.

Simply multiplying them together is not the right answer.. I can access the trifecta pool and the Win and Place Pool so I can work out how many "live" tickets there are on win or place bet, if that helps..

$20.00 prize money to the first respondent to give me a correct answer shown to be accurate to within 10% of the real dividend based on 10 randomly chosen Saturday races...Or a logically calculated formula that I can massage to get the results I want..

Respond to this if you think you have the right answer and Ill get in touch..

Hi the formula is as follows:

X[(XY-1)(Z+1)
X+1

3[(3*4)-1(9+1)]
3+1

3*11*10
4


So to your dividends
2.5 2.7 12 expected dividend $53


Cheers

I was working on this one, but gave up in frustration.

the formula i used:

(A x B x C) / (1 - A) / (1 - A - B)

where,
A = winning chance % of 1st
B = winning chance % of 2nd
C = winning chance % of 3rd

After doing the trifecta tables in Excel the file was up to about 39mb in size, which made it almost unusable, prone to freezing etc.

It may be more practical to base your bet size just on the exacta combo's with muliple runners to run 3rd, or some other variation.

The formula Ubetido put in is correct i have used it before works a treat, divis or normaly higher than the rated prices i will give an exaample from a race today.

The Oaks

Win div of the first 3 places from Unitab

1st $2.50 =a
2nd $2.70 =b
3rd $11.60 =c

take 1 from each price
1.5
1.7
10.6

(1.5x((1.5x1.7)-1)xC)/a)

Payout is $10.79

Trifecta payed $34.10

Trifectas
 

Thanks ubetido,

I'm not sure that I understand the formula so I'll have to play with it till I fathom it out.. It looks good.. Not sure how you derived this formula, but it looks interesting.

Thanks

OzPunter

Thanks Shaun,

I'm looking into this and I'll let you know.

OzPunter

Thanks brave chief

I also thought it would be easier that it turned out to be, so I asked you guys..

Hopefully I'll hit on the right formula and I'll share it around when I do..

Regards

OzPunter

This is the correct solution:

A: 2.5
B: 2.7
C: 12
D: =0.8/(E1*F1*G1/(1-E1)/(1-E1-F1)) expected Div
E: =0.84/A1
F: =0.84/B1
G: =0.84/C1


It matches Brave Chief's formula (oft-repeated according to the search function).

It assumes unbiased distributions, Win returns of 84% and Trifecta returns of 80%.

Thanks JFC, I'll be watching it closely.

Kind Regards
OzPunter

I plan on running this side by side with the formula i use, i am very happy with the results i get.