Trying to win a buck
 

I've found that Form don't mean much in Football just the same as in many other types of Sport Gambling.
It usually boils down to who wanted it more on the day.
These selections are based on Gut Feeling more than Form Analysis.
I'm putting more money on the better bets and also betting in ways that will deliver higher prices.

St.Kilda has a chance of beating Melbourne and don't think they could lose by very much. 9.5 points in @ $1.90 for $80
Brisbane at the Gabba to beat Hawthorn comfortably. -10.5 points @ $2 for $70
Essendon should put in a good effort against Adelaide. 20.5 points in @ $1.90 for $60
Kangaroos will want the win more than Collingwood. Kangaroos for win @ $2.14 for $50
Fremantle should hammer Port Adelaide. Fremantle -25.5 @ $2 for $40
Western Bulldogs against Geelong. Bulldogs -8.5 @ $2 for $30
Sydney should win by a small amount. Sydney -10.5 @ $1.90 for $20
Carlton to beat Richmond. Carlton -7.5 @ $1.90 for $10

I am definetely going to get on

Brisbane to beat Hawthorn

&

Western Bulldogs to beat Geelong

Will probably put $200 on each just for the win.

I never screw around with line betting on AFL matches, never have and never will, seen people get burnt all too easy (after the siren goals/points, even when not affecting the outcome of the game).

Hoping to have a huge year on the AFL punt.

Can't wait.

Also there is no way Adelaide will lose to the Bombers @ 1.30

well the afl running true to form as usual
************ hell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dunno what your on about Rabbitz...Please explain!!

I got 3 out of my top 3 collects in and that makes it a certainty to have made a buck.
So that's good.I can now post a running record of how it's travelling.
It really does seem to show that you can study FORM too much.
Don't do that!..Listen to your guts.

And well done Kitch.Hope you didn't take the $1.30 ADELAIDE.
That's the trouble with the shorties.They can eat up all your hard work if they go down and add very little to it if they should win.

I mean Moeee, that i didnt pick any of the upsets and got a grand total of 1 out of 8...The Lions of course
Oh well early form
Well done with your selections
cheers

Because the type of betting I chose to use were more or less Even money type betting, then it would be assumed that a 50% strike rate is in order.Even if somebody hasn't a clue as to the Games.
As I did end up with slightly over 50% winners then it seems I know a little more than most.
But the key to making the profit is that the winners that I did select were in my Investments for the larger Stakes.
If a Punter is capable of picking 3 winners out of the top 4 selections then a Profit is guaranteed.As is 4 winners out of the top 6.
It's easy to dismiss these results as being beginners luck and expect the Profit to disintegrate in the coming weeks.
But St. Kilda and Essendon were clear winners and the Profit could have been higher as the Kangaroos only lost by a head or so prior to leading comfortably in the straight.
So it is looking forward to next week where hopefully the GUTS can continue to come good.
The slight concern now is that I rely less on the Gut Feeling and tend to look at the Form instead.
That is the good thing about making selections early before too much information is revealed.

And I found 2 Teams that have NO possible chance of winning the Premiership.
KANGAROOS and FREMANTLE

INVESTED $360
RETURNED $485
PROFIT $125
POT 34.72%

Haven't a CLUE on the Margin, but St. Kilda will beat Brisbane.Win @ $1.51 for $80
ADELAIDE are a lot better than last week.+16.5 @ $2 for $70
Essendon done well.Fremantle are CRAP.Win @ $2 for $60
CARLTON seem to enjoy winning.Win @ $2.12 for $50
Hawthorn to improve on their skills.+12.5 @ $1.91 for $40
Port Adelaide.-29.5 @ $1.91 for $30
Richmond to lose by a small amount.+13.5 @ $2 for $20
Collingwood didn't quit trying last week.+31.5 @ $2 for $10

Looking at the Odds , I couldn't understand why St. Kilda were so short.
Then me GUTS told me that someone out there must know something.
Obviously NOT!
Okay.
Lesson number one.

Don't change your mind!

I will now write down why my GUTS is saying what it's saying.
That way I won't be influenced to change my mind for no appropriate reason.

INVESTED $720
RETURNED $841.4
PROFIT $121.4
POT 16.86%

So Round 3 is on its way and here's what the GUTS is doin' at the minute.

Big Game of Collingwood versus Richmond and Fans expect to see an effort put in from the Players.
Especially the Tiger Fans.
Richmond to Lose by a small amount. $80

South Australian Derby.Don't think Port can win by very much $70

Frustrating Fremantle don't seem to have their act together.West Coast comfortably $60

Something tells me the Bulldogs can almost win against St. Kilda, but not quite.$50

Brisbane going along nicely.The Sydney Fans will put an end to that.Sydney easily $40

Geelong should have nice big heads after their win that just beg to be kicked in.
And Daniher will stand for nothing less.Melbourne by a reasonable amount $30

Carlton sure are hard to catch so You gotta go for the Bombers by some sort of reasonable Margin. $20

Kangaroos tend to play well against Hawthorn.Not here though.Hawthorn by a reasonable Margin. $10