UK Favourites
 

O.K. it's time to ask some serious questions now.
I've been putting up with this for months.

What's the deal with these U.K. favourites this year?

They are winning somewhere between 50% and 75% of races.
I thought this was just temporary, but now months later and it doesn't seem like letting up.

A purple patch of 11 months cannot be explained, last year was fantastic they won at the 30% expected rate, but all of a sudden - this.

Either the quality of opposition is poor or something sinister is going on.

Here's what I mean and this is going on almost every day...

14/1
5/6F
22/1
5/2F
15/8F
11/2
7/4
5/1
9/2
11/4F
2/1F
7/2
5/4F
8/15F
25/1
9/1

As 7 from 16 bookie favourites is 43%, the percentage of Betfair favourites makes it around 60%.

I think it's time to just back these ************s and rake it in!

BUT the last time I did this, was the one day that only 2 out of 22 races won :(

The trick to chasing favs is to have a cut off of 9 outs in a row for ones staking plan, then start again at the beginning once a winner is struck or 9 outs in a row is struck..

Target all that are $2.80+,anything under this amount, no-bet race.

If 9 outs in a row does hit, stop betting , then re-start once any Fav gets up to win.

This helps a lot in trying to avoid being part of any long run of outs which can & does occure.


I have been doing well with them using my staking plan.

Cheers.

Betfair favourites should typically be the same as Bookie favourites.
So the strike rate for both should be near identical.

A "Black Swan" year
 

Chrome

Have you read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable". I found it a sometimes laborious and over wordy read in which the author presents his arguments against the use of the Bell Curve as a useful statistical tool. If you sift through it Taleb's "Black Swan's" (because until Australia was discovered all swan's were white) may go some way to explaining what you've experienced. It may not too and perhaps I should go back to my navel gazing, but the book certainly does make you think.

Here's an interesting review I just stumbled across.

http://opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110009979

No they aren't, three of the non-bookie favourites ended up being Betfair favourites.
Typically they are the same, but you can have quite a few instances of a 7/4 and 7/2 being reversed on the exchange.
Betfair favourites have a higher strike rate than bookie or tote favourites.

Interesting read.

What is strange is that I had thought it was something to do with the quality of the horses on the flat, but we are now in the jumps season and it's the same.
The UK forums abound with ideas as to why it is, they've not seen anything like it.
Sure as eggs it will turn around, just have to hang in and reduce lay liability.

...but 11 months is a big ask in anyone's language ;)

I can hang in there, but what about the bag men?

I'm sure they'd have very unbalanced books and be taking a beating.

And the beat rolls on...

four favourites out of seven races.
57% win strike rate.

I'm jumping in the Tardis and going back to 31/12/2006, loading up the Betfair account to back every favourite in the UK.

5 out of 8 now

62.50% strike rate

This isn't funny anymore.

7 out of 11

63.63% win strike rate

:eek:

8 from 14

57.14% win strike rate.

time for bed.