So who here is lay betting?
 

I've just discovered the wonders of lay betting and have been successful at least on paper so far.. After a brief dabble with it today after figuring it out.

From some old threads some chick apparently was quite successful at it and michaelg did it and saw some success.

Michael are you still doing it, how have you faired? Anyone else? From what I've seen it looks like a licence to print money. Tho I'm sure the long term always gets ya aye!

Time for me to have a dabble with it for a week (on paper), if it hasn't busted the bank, time to keep on doing it until I go bust!

It's not a license to print money. Laying is the same as backing, in reverse, no different. If you back a horse on Betfair at $5.00, it means someone has laid it to you at $5.00. Same thing as them backing it to lose at $1.20. There is no difference between betting and laying, they are the same thing. Is betting a license to print money?

Pengo go and have a look at the Daily Donkey and Tipster Proofing --- just google them. They will help you understand the implications, etc. and how difficult it is to succeed (both mainly to do with English racing, but the same aplies everwhere). GL

Mmm. Don't judge laying on paper trading today's results. Today was the best day on the lay for a while. I finished close to 40 points up. That is NOT an everyday occurance. Lay for real and post again in four weeks time and tell us whether you've gained your licence. ;)

Good luck

Well unlike win betting, all I need to do to win is for it to come 2nd-12th in a 12 horse race.. So I see that as being better odds for me in winning my bet where as trying to pick one horse to win. Granted I gotta risk a lot to win a little but still, smaller consistent returns is better than large inconsistent returns IMHO.

For instance I was risking 100 today to win 6 units as I was laying horses in the double digits. Tho from reading previous threads the sweet spot seems to be 5-11.

As they say proof is in the pudding and we will see over time how good this really is. Whenever I get onto a new "system" I always tend to have the beginners luck, for instance today happened to be an unusual day for laying as pixie has said....

Pengo you've failed to grasp the maths of it. Laying a horse at, say, $16, is EXACTLY (not similar, not related, but exactly) the same thing as having a BET, at odds of, roughly, $1.06, that it WON'T win, as opposed to backing horses who WILL win. When all is said and done, it's the same thing, because a bet is a bet. You bet a horse "will win" or you bet he "will not win", either way you take odds about a proposition.

I couldn't be f**ked typing as much as I should about this so you get it, but I'll leave you with one last thing to think about: how is it mathematically possible for all LAYERS to win, and all BACKERS to lose, at the same time? Investigate the maths of that one, and you'll have your answer.

Pengo

The other thing you should be aware of is that in general the odds available on Betfair favour the backer, not the layer. If your laying the double figure selections you're almost certainly offering over the odds. In many cases you'll have to offer big overs just to get matched. You don't see that when your paper trading. These horses do win. Don't think they don't!

Have a go though. Interested to hear how you fair for real.

PS: Tell us which ones you're laying so we can back a few ;)

Yeah I was laying them $1-$2 over the TAB price so as to simulate them being matched.

I won't be laying them for real, but I'll post my goings on once I begin. If only to give me an ongoing record of my success or failures.

Pengo,

You cannot reasonably simulate at the odds you got matched, hypothetical and real odds are often poles apart.

I leave you with this....forget about picking losers, that is the very first trap players fall into, pick the right price to lay at.

Laying at oods because you think a horse can't win plus commission will eventually undo even the most savvy player unless you get below or at TAB odds.

Laying a horse 20% 50% and 80% above TAB odds because you think it can't win, will probably provide a profit for quite some time, but the one winner you didn't count on will get you and you're paying $3.00 a litre for petrol instead of $1.50 - you cannot win longterm like this.

Getting the price right and having it matched is the secret, but not always so easy to do. As Chrome said, laying at over the odds will always lose eventually.
I remember a graph I had up on goggle once about English Betfair that showed layers and backers were about even in end results of profit or loss over a 12mth period.

Pengo,
Because a race has 12 horses it does not mean they all have an equal chance of winning or losing. That's just plain nonsense and setting your price to that theory would be suicide.