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-   -   Can any one test this please (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=17123)

Shaun 14th January 2008 10:52 PM

Can any one test this please
 
1) Horse must have between 80% and 99% place strike rate

2) Must be the only selection in the race

3) must have had atleast 5 starts

Chrome Prince 15th January 2008 02:20 PM

Not too good Shaun,

5063 selections

Win return $4,588.20
Place return $4,474.28

So it's a 9.4% win loss on turnover approximately.

That's as per your rules taking out multiple runners in a race.

partypooper 15th January 2008 10:25 PM

Chrome, as expected BUT, just as a matter of interest what was the % of places?

Shaun 15th January 2008 10:48 PM

Thanks mate, we will see what we can do with that.

One day i will have to make a good investment in that database then i can run my own tests.

Chrome Prince 15th January 2008 11:19 PM

5063 selections
2421 placings

Place Strike rate of 47.82%

partypooper 16th January 2008 12:03 AM

Chrome, thanks for that, but it sounds too bad to be true, is that the WIN s/r maybe?

Chrome Prince 16th January 2008 07:55 AM

Yes, it's the place strike rate.

It's actually 47.62% S/R, I included NTD horses by accident :(

partypooper 16th January 2008 09:47 AM

Chrome, I'm amazed then at the ave. divi and only a lot of 10%, considering that you'd expect horses with 80-90% place S/R to be fairly short, amazing!

Shaun 18th January 2008 10:48 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Not too good Shaun,

5063 selections

Win return $4,588.20
Place return $4,474.28

So it's a 9.4% win loss on turnover approximately.

That's as per your rules taking out multiple runners in a race.



Can i ask over what period did you run these stats as these are only about 15 selections per week this seams a lot of runners unless these stats are for about 10 years results.

lomaca 18th January 2008 03:20 PM

Hi Shaun,
it's amazing how one can be mislead by place percentage.
I would not have believed myself, that the result was so poor.
I quickly double checked it back to 2001 and out of 4424 races there were only 967 winners. A miserable 21.84%. Did not bother to check the place% after this.
Goes to show the fallacy of relaying on simple filters, doesn't it?
Good luck


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