Lay idea - Jockeys with poor strike rate
 

Lay any horse under $15 if its jockey has a less than 4% strike rate at the track.

Perhaps put a limit on the number of starters (at least 8 etc)

I've been going through the jockeys at various tracks and many of them specialise in 2nds and thirds.

Are the horses they are riding substandard, or are they just poor jockeys?

Do jockeys riding styles suit different tracks?

Food for thought and I'd appreciate any feedback.

Perhaps we lay only their runners between $10-30 as they would probably have little to no chance.

Two Shoes

I came across a UK Laying system that cost nearly $230

The Rules are.
The Jockey & Trainer must have a win SR of 10% & less for that track.

Must be 1600m+ (1 Mile)

Must be $15.00 & less.

Bet to 5% Fixed Liability.

I tried it & it does seem to work.

No need to spend $230, I'm pretty sure that bit is straight from Mark Cramer.

Some time ago I layed horses if their jockey had a poor career strike rate which also covered the past 12 months. I can't remember my maximum price but the method failed.

I seem to think the worst results came from minor race race meetings. I can only assume the jockeys may have had several races against better jockeys resulting in a distorted low strike rate. However I did not combine the jockey and trainer strike rates, nor any other filters.

Generally distances 1600m+ tends to favour the more experieced jockeys.

Just have a look at apprentice jockys SR in the longer distances where there is a max of 3 apprentices in the race.

Their SR is usually very low.

Heres a Lay betting angle thats showing promise.

RULES
Target 1600m+ races.

Target fields where there are 3 apprentice riders & less.

If there is more than 1 apprentice, selection is the lower price.

Max price 15.00

No bet race if its the Betfair Fav.

Bet 5% fixed liability
Good for 20 outs.

My 2 cents: it's my observation that just about any selection method or system is winner, not by BACKING but by laying, but the problem is very very few punters have the resolve of the bookmakers who know (without doubt) that the numbers will swing back in their favour, always always always!

that's how people like betafair EXIST, just take 5% regardless!

So why am I not living in 5 star accomodation in the Carrabean permanently,...... hmmmmm you've got a point there!!!!?

Hmmm ! Five of my favourite contributers on this thread.

Big Respect !!! to you all.

Thanks for Sharing -The Knowledge - & Shining the Torch -

For anyone who has ever tried to

--Deconstruct "Maria's" Selections--

Iam sure you"ll find that this SR -

Quote Originally Posted by Bhagwan

-was one of her criteria.
As well as Track -- Track Condition -- Distance & maybe even the Sire & Mare's performance over the relative conditions

Any further thoughts ???

Cheers

Ha haaaa

Thanks for your input partypooper!

It should be so very simple shouldn't it!! If only with these systems one could also purchase a 'steely resolve' to get you through the tough times!

My 2010 resolution is to focus on staking, staking, staking.....It's where I let myself down all the time.

I'm definitely going to analyse this 1600m+ theory so thanks Bhagwan. Over the last few days I've taken it a step further and have been focussing on jockeys with a 3% strike rate or less at the track and also going back through their overall strike rates.

I'm convinced there's a Lay system here just waiting to rear its head!!

I've read the Maria Lay system thread a few times OM SHARNTEE and it's helping me come to terms with winning a small percentage consistenetly over the year. It can most certainly be done!

Regarding track conditions, if a horse has failed 3 or more times in the Wet for example it's usually a good pointer. You have to be quite scrupulous and check that the class wasn't a lot higher or the distance unsuitable but maybe
start with this:

1600m+

The Jockey & Trainer must have a win SR of 10% & less for that track

Must not have won in today's track conditions

Must be under $15

Two Shoes

One thing I have found when looking to create lay systems, is the answer is can sometimes be the opposite of what you think.

In this case with jockey trainer SR's, the answer could actually be looking for the combinations with the highest strike rate. Yes they are going to win more often, but hopefuly they are overbet, and therfore value for lay betting.

This may not turn out to be the case with this method, its not something I have looked into before, but as a a general rule of thumb for me, is I look for stats that make a horse look favourable as a win betting proposition, and often find that so do most other punters, and therefore there is no value in backing them, however laynig them can be a goldmine. Most of mylay systems are based on ideas such as placed last start, good barriers etc etc.

Just a thought anyway.

Good luck!