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-   -   Lay progressive staking (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=20057)

thorns 1st April 2010 04:55 PM

Lay progressive staking
 
Anybody got any ideas for a lay staking plan? Not a ultra agreesive one that recovers all losses in teh next race, probably more of a slower progression.
Currently am running at a 16.27% SR and a average div of 4.76.

Bhagwan 1st April 2010 09:13 PM

This is probable one of the strongest lay staking methods one will find, if the selections are OK.

Bet 1.00

If a loss go to 2.00 & stay there until all losses are recovered.

If bit again , go to 3.00 & stay there until losses are recovered.

ect. up to 10.00

Works best if prices are 6.60 & less



That is a very impressive SR
16.27 x 4.76 = 77.44 - 100.00 = +22.56
At level stakes , this means you have a 22.56% POT

It raises the question as to why one wishes to use a staking plan .

Have you thought about betting the Fixed Liability all upping over say 3-5 races?

Can you say what the selection method is?

michaelg 2nd April 2010 07:03 AM

Thorns, here's another one, its a loss-chasing plan.

I've been using it over the past four days with the method shown on the Horse Racing Forum as an accident has been struck on all four days.

I use a factor of 10 but any can be used.

If the accident loses an amount of $100 I then divide the loss by 10 giving a figure of $10. I then add this to my one unit, and the product of both is the amount I lay on the next selection. So if one unit is $5, I have a lay-bet of $15. I do this for the next 10 races, and if there are no accidents then not only would I have recouped the loss of $100 but I would have also won 10 units.

I use a factor of 10 because of the very high success rate (currently 81 from 85 selections since last Sunday).

Many variations of the staking plan can be applied to any method.

Edit - As a matter of interest I had been using this method with limited success laying the faves but when I devised the selection method as shown on the other forum I stopped. However, if the method crashes I will then return to laying the faves.

thorns 2nd April 2010 07:11 AM

Cheers for that guys. I have also played with the Staking Machine after realising that it has lay plans on it. Seems the smoothest ride is shown nby using either liabilty types, or the maria staking plan. Sme of the progresive ones on there showed great steady profits for a long time, until one bad spell could wipe out months of hard work which would really do my head in!

At this stage Bhags I'm not going to give out the rules, as it has been a ongoing 3 year project which started out as a back method, only to find a great lay method, and back method from it. One thing I will say is that its actually really boring, as you are required to sit there watching prices all day, and I can't see a way of automating it.

Cheers

Bhagwan 2nd April 2010 02:21 PM

Another approach after a loss is to multiply the total loss by .85 + ones initial stake to all races .

Target selections 6.60 & less.

Example
Initial bet on all races 10.00
10.00 L @ 6.60 = -56.00
56.00 x .85 = 47.60
47.60 + 10.00 = O/L 57.60

Restart at the first success.

Do this for a max of 4 outs max.
Then restart.

Have 2 banks of 500.00 / betting 1.00 initial bet.

It can get expensive, so make sure the bank can handle it based on the max div one is prepared to indulge.

Bhagwan 6th April 2010 09:10 AM

Here is another Lay method.
Target preferred runner, priced 4.50-5.50

Bet goes...
6 lots of...
1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 ect
3 --------
4 --------
5 --------
6 --------
7 --------
ect.
Win, lose or draw until all losses recovered then start again.

You will see that only a few win in this price range.
Often with long strings of outs.

Bhagwan 8th April 2010 06:33 PM

Here is a variaton of one of the other palns already metioned.

Betting to Liability.
Divide fractional odds of selection into the Liability figure.

We go up to the next level of betting after each loss.

We stay at that bet liability level after each success until all losses recovered.

1
2
3
4
ect up to 10

Bank needed 1 / 400 ratio

Mark 8th April 2010 08:43 PM

Make of this what you will...NEVER, EVER chase losses.

thorns 9th April 2010 03:20 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Make of this what you will...NEVER, EVER chase losses.
Well after trialling a few on paper, after today I may have to agree with you, had the worst run I have had laying, over 4 lays it went:

3.0
3.7
12.5
4.4

OUCH

michaelg 9th April 2010 04:17 PM

I wonder if Maria would have lost?


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