System for 2011
 

THought I would pass on a profitable system for the few who have the temperment to bet it.

Rules are :
1. Barrier 5 or wider before scratchings (removes the overbet inside 4 barriers)
2. Unitab 100 rated
3. Has only had up to 4 previous career starts

Thats it.

Selections : 1229
Return betfair after 5% commission : $1368.45
Strike rate : 27%

Lots of action and a profit. If you restricted it to $3+ bets :

Selections : 913
Return betfair after 5% commission : $1061.33
Strike rate : 20%

Thats a profit of 16% on over 900 bets.

There are a couple of other ways to make this more profitable but thats for you to work out.

hi wesmip,
what timeframe was your testing over?
thanks

sorry meant to post that. I only have betfair prices from Mid June. So it was over 6.5 months.

maiden races included or must have a win next to name?

as per rules .. maidens are not excluded.

Just these rules:

1. Barrier 5 or wider before scratchings (removes the overbet inside 4 barriers)
2. Unitab 100 rated
3. Has only had up to 4 previous career starts


You will lose on tote figures. It requires you bet with betfair odds.

I imagine barriers 1 to 4 didnt show a profit which would suggest extending the barrier filter would perhaps reduce the action and strike rate a bit but improve the overall POT.

correct.

Looks interesting, Wes. Thanks for that. Just went thru today's races, and if I have done things right there are only 9 qualifiers. Thought there would be more than that --- though that is plenty!!

Couple of questions raised their heads:

If there are more than one 100 in a race?

Have you any figures for place betting?

Thanks.

If more then one 100 rater in a race then you still include them. Its not often you will get 2 that meet the rules in one race.

I don't generally keep my place dividends up to date as I don't do place betting. But I would think place betting will show a loss. Place betting is very hard to profit from.

I get 7 selections today (after scratchings):

Echuca R3 : 12
Echuca R4 : 9
Mooney Valley R1 : 1
Mooney Valley R5 : 5
Sunshine Coast R4 : 13
Nowra R2: 8
Port Lincoln R4 : 11

You can double check your selections against those.

Thanks for that, Wes. Checked them all out. Had made mistakes with Gosford Race 3 No. 13; and Nowra 1 No. 3. Otherwise, as the Italians say Siamo d'Accordo.

Thanks for that it will be interesting to see how they go.

Is there a simple place to get the horse's last four runs? I have been using the Punters Paradise site which is pretty good; but does meana bit of to and fro work.

Good luck.