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- - Form Factor Ratings (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21357)

Form Factor Ratings

Each day i will post my top 2 runners for selected races, i will keep a running total on level stakes units based on prices from IAS.

Here is an example from today's races.

Code:


Geelong Synthetic		Race	6
5. Royal Dalton		$3.17
4. Hachiman		$3.97
Casino				Race	8
6. Darshan Joh		$2.91
2. Show A Lion Heart	$3.93
Canterbury			Race	5
6. Red Tracer		$4.25
11. Magita		$5.49

Here we go, i list the best class races from each state, these are the best for today all black type races.

Code:



Caulfield		Race	5
2. Elusive King		$3.94
1. Cuban Sunday		$4.66

Caulfield		Race	6
11. Dubleanny		$2.99
4. Lady Lynette		$4.61

Doomben			Race	7
2. Jasminka		$2.72
13. Geblitzt		$5.29

Morphettville Pk	Race	5
9. Triple Asset		$3.42
1. Cash Bound		$4.04

Morphettville Pk	Race	6
2. Giggleswick		$2.74
1. Precious Lorraine	$5.24

Morphettville Pk	Race	7
6. Believe 'n Achieve	$4.18
8. Budriguez		$5.01

Randwick		Race	1
6. Jackpot Queen	$2.60
7. Anise		$3.02

Randwick		Race	2
7. Needs Further	$2.50
5. Circle Of Power	$6.30

Randwick		Race	3
8. Older Than Time	$2.11
14. Anudjawun		$8.35

Randwick		Race	4
13. Lebrechaun		$4.19
5. Bold Glance		$5.21

Randwick		Race	5
7. Black Caviar		$2.17
11. Crystal Lily	$5.97

Randwick		Race	6
4. Do You Think		$4.00
8. Elite Falls		$4.36

Randwick		Race	7
1. Jimmy Choux		$2.15
3. Retrieve		$8.40

Randwick		Race	8
10. Ladys Angel		$3.67
2. Zingaling		$4.89

Randwick		Race	9
5. Raspberries		$2.88
9. Honor Net		$5.41

Randwick was a swoopers track, a few times i had runners in the lead to be rolled in the straight.

It is fun starting with a loss.

Code:


Caulfield		Race	5
2. Elusive King		$3.94 Scr
1. Cuban Sunday		$4.66 

Caulfield		Race	6
11. Dubleanny		$2.99
4. Lady Lynette		$4.61 

Doomben			Race	7
2. Jasminka		$2.72 5.14
13. Geblitzt		$5.29

Morphettville Pk	Race	5
9. Triple Asset		$3.42
1. Cash Bound		$4.04

Morphettville Pk	Race	6
2. Giggleswick		$2.74
1. Precious Lorraine	$5.24 2.12

Morphettville Pk	Race	7
6. Believe 'n Achieve	$4.18
8. Budriguez		$5.01 3.02

Randwick		Race	1
6. Jackpot Queen	$2.60
7. Anise		$3.02 6.45

Randwick		Race	2
7. Needs Further	$2.50 2.82
5. Circle Of Power	$6.30

Randwick		Race	3
8. Older Than Time	$2.11
14. Anudjawun		$8.35

Randwick		Race	4
13. Lebrechaun		$4.19
5. Bold Glance		$5.21

Randwick		Race	5
7. Black Caviar		$2.17 1.31
11. Crystal Lily	$5.97

Randwick		Race	6
4. Do You Think		$4.00
8. Elite Falls		$4.36

Randwick		Race	7
1. Jimmy Choux		$2.15
3. Retrieve		$8.40

Randwick		Race	8
10. Ladys Angel		$3.67
2. Zingaling		$4.89

Randwick		Race	9
5. Raspberries		$2.88
9. Honor Net		$5.41

Result 6/15
SR 40%
Outlay 29
Return 20.86
Loss -8.14

40% strike rate?

6 from 29 would return a strike rate of 20.69% when I went to school.

Gerry

It would be if it was per selection rather than per race.

Shaun,

How are you staing pre race ? Is it is just 1 unit on ech selection ? or is it dutched ?

I am dutching but for the results it is just 1 unit per selection.

I was ducting $10 per race yesterday and lost about $5 i went away from Black Caviar only because of the price and used my second/third picks.

In 90% of races i got better odds on betfair so that's a good sign.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

I was ducting $10 per race yesterday and lost about $5 i went away from Black Caviar only because of the price and used my second/third picks.

How could you bet against black caviar. That horse is amazing. I thought even at $1.14 which is what the bookies were paying she was over the odds. The only reason she was up that high was due to it being her first time running clockwise.

When will she get beat ? I don't see it happening soon unless they put her in the completely wrong race and become arrogant. ie too long a distance or a very heavy track. But I think the trainer is too smart to do that.

Yeah i know, i should have just stayed out and cheered her on.

Code:


Cranbourne		Race	6
5. Old Guard		$3.35
1. Reassemble		$3.57
Narrogin		Race	8
1. Lie In Wait		$3.54
7. Movie World		$4.38
Orange			Race	4
1. For Cruyff's Sake	$3.55
6. Hussonet Song	$5.85
Orange			Race	5
6. Dragon's Keep	$4.47
4. Chatterchic		$5.00
Port Lincoln		Race	4
2. Out For Lunch	$2.50
5. Hightom		$5.65
Port Lincoln		Race	5
2. Roll On Bai		$3.06
4. Dieselfuel		$4.27
Port Lincoln		Race	8
7. Yarterbery		$2.49
10. Bracken Blue	$6.68
Sunshine Coast		Race	3
1. Ima Joker		$3.45
4. Belletrist		$4.75
Wangaratta		Race	6
6. Nice And Neat	$2.64
8. Private Jeune	$6.39
Wangaratta		Race	7
17. Lordoftheparrots	$2.68
5. Becqu Adoree		$7.14

Orange races look like a bit of a joke today so i am removing them as selections