An observation
 

2 weeks ago I ran for 7 days a live test on Unitab, 15 seconds before race start on the top 8 favourites (min 8 starters), mainly to see where our selections lay. As a by-product of this test I noticed that during this period the top 8 favourites produced over 95% of the winners.

To me, the obvious from this was the potential to lay those that were NOT in the top 8 favourites.

Today I did a test on this, with a 100% strike rate. However, the prices of those to be bet was VERY high!

When you are betting to a liability, the payout is the same irrespective of the price if failure strikes, however it is the return you get when successful which may be a problem for a viable system.

Anyway I throw this out there as an observation as there is very little supporting data on my part, but I thought it was still interesting and worthy of a post.

For interest, today it was an $84.70 return on a $50 bet liability (but with 100% strike rate) so not sure how this would stack up long term.

Food for thought only! .. good punting! .. fred

Fred
Just looked up my data breakdown. Adjusted to >=8 runners. 38317 races.
Fav 1 11585 wins
2 7206
3 5277
4 3979
5 2968
6 2352
7 1774
8 1230
9 787
10 512
11 312
12 179
13 85
14 43
15 17
16 10
19 1
from 9th fav up 1946 wins or 5% 1 win over 16th fav.
Beton

Thanks Beton - great feedback. I will re visit this when time permits and will let you know how I go.

Fred

Hi 4legs.
Hers a way to drasticly reduce the liability on those really high priced horses.

Lay bet all those roughies & at the same time have the 2nd Fav layed to break even if it should win.

If the 2nd Fav should also fall over , you will clean up.

Thanks Bhagwan - it is an interesting angle. It does need something like that to make it viable. I will re-visit it shortly and will let you know how I go. Fred

In another forum there is a participant who has below his signature:

"most winners come from the first seven in betting two minutes before they jump".

Don't know how true it is; but along the same lines as your observation.

Of course, how to profit from these observations is the question!!

Being new the racing game I thought it was an amazing discovery, and I was so surprised; and even more surprised when Beton posted his results!

So I would accept the statement ("most winners come from the first seven in betting two minutes before they jump") as being true - and it is nice to continue and get these confirmations.

But you are correct, how to profit from this is the question!

Even though they came from the first 7 if you backed the first 7 you would lose, but it is a good point to start from, maybe look at the first 7 and only back those above $7

In an 8 horse race 100% of the winners are in the first 8 favorites.
I pulled the results for 8 runners.
4334 races
Fav 1 1500 wins 34.6%
Fav 2 970 22.38%
Fav 3 654 15%
Fav 4 481 11.1%
Fav 5 304 7%
Fav 6 220 5%
Fav 7 132 3%
Fav 8 73 1.68%

Which probably only proves that in 98% of all races there is at least 1 horse in a race that has no possible chance of winning.
Regards Beton

Lol