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-   -   Who Bets On Last Start Winners Only? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=22370)

marksto2 26th August 2011 06:28 PM
Who Bets On Last Start Winners Only?
 
I am thinking of doing this as the strike rate and profit can be good if selective.

Anyone else just back last start winners at certain tracks or as a unique strategy?

Chrome Prince 26th August 2011 06:43 PM
Yes, do pretty well on last start winners within 7 days, as long as they firm in the betting.
Very high strike rate.

marksto2 27th August 2011 09:02 AM
Thats interesting Chrome Prince.

By the way. What do you find the most accurate pre post market to be? Daily Tel or Syd Morn Her? Any thoughts as so many morning line markets seem to be different.

Bhagwan 27th August 2011 10:11 AM
I found last start winners perform well in 1000m exactly.

Taking the first one one comes to going down the list.

If no last start winners in that 1000m race

Then look for the ones that ran 2nd last start.

Ignore resumers.

Chrome Prince 27th August 2011 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by marksto2
Thats interesting Chrome Prince.

By the way. What do you find the most accurate pre post market to be? Daily Tel or Syd Morn Her? Any thoughts as so many morning line markets seem to be different.


I don't use prepost markets at all myself.
I use the bookies track prices to determine bets.

Bhagwan 28th August 2011 01:43 AM
The SR ends up being the same, no matter what pre-pot market you use, over 100 races.

So just use any one of them.

The online racingandsports is just as good as the newspapers & they take out the scratchings for you.

If you wish to re-frame the market percentage, then use the market re-framer as seen on Ozracingtools

An interesting observation is that if one where to back the first 5 in the pre-post, same amount on each , level stakes.

It only looses -5% LOT.

Which is less than backing the Fav outright, which looses approx -10% at level stakes.

So all you have to do is successfully delete one runner out of the five horses & you would then be in profit over 100 races.

Bhagwan 28th August 2011 04:22 AM
Just for interest sake.
These are the results for Sat 27 Aug.

RULES
<=1010m
Delete any odds on fav races. (<=2.00)

Won LS , first one we come to , working from top down list of runners.

If no LSW then target LS 2nds.

Delete resumers.

3 winners from 5 selections
6.40 + 8.80 + 4.80

Ret 20.00
O/L 5.00
Prof + 15.00

darkydog2002 28th August 2011 12:23 PM
Bgahwan,
Is that for ALL track conditions.
Cheers
darky

Bhagwan 28th August 2011 04:55 PM
Yes

marksto2 28th August 2011 07:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
The SR ends up being the same, no matter what pre-pot market you use, over 100 races.

So just use any one of them.

The online racingandsports is just as good as the newspapers & they take out the scratchings for you.

If you wish to re-frame the market percentage, then use the market re-framer as seen on Ozracingtools

An interesting observation is that if one where to back the first 5 in the pre-post, same amount on each , level stakes.

It only looses -5% LOT.

Which is less than backing the Fav outright, which looses approx -10% at level stakes.

So all you have to do is successfully delete one runner out of the five horses & you would then be in profit over 100 races.
Good stats Bhagwan. Maybe you could just dutch bet leaving the favourite out the other horses and a staking plan like Money Factory? This would turn a loss into a profit at these small POT loss figures you quoted.


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