Question to the best and brightest on here....
 

As a 1st poster on here, I wish to doffs my cap to the quality of posting here and also the dedication demonstrated in the search for the 'holy grail'... the perfect betting system, or even just a method that brings consistent returns over the longer term?

So out of respect to the best, the brightest and also the most generous - & honest members on here when it comes to what works, what doesn't (and sometimes what might?) - I wanted to start with a question or 2, rather than a contribution!

What in your opinion is a reasonable definition of the perfect betting system?

How will we know when we find one ie what to look for, how to measure?

Thanks in advance - any feedback here is greatly appreciated!

Lord G

I am far from the best/brightest here but here is my opinion.

I am looking for something which is conisistent. It doesn't have to win each day but it should win most weeks and most months. I am also looking for something that is logical. If I have a rule I want to have a reason behind it. For example wide barriers are underbet by the public so they usually are a good starting point for value.

As far as testing it I have seen many models but I think the only one worth using is a real live test period of several months with small stakes. If it has been consistent in the past then it should be consistent and win over a test period of 3 months.

If you can find the thread where I "revealed all" you're on your way.
Yesterday was my first losing day since posting it some weeks ago.

Hi Lord Greystoke and welcome to the forum!

The perfect betting system, hmmm....

1/ Relatively high strike rate (25 - 40%) to reduce length of losing runs
2/ Isolates value (or has a value/minimum price component locked in)
3/ Uses a sensible staking strategy relative to strike rate/return.
4/ Has a simple set of rules or is easy to automate selections.

I'd recommend having a play around with UB's system tester, it's opened my eyes to a few situations that deliver value and lay opportunities for the commodities that are overbet.

An interesting article posted by Mark a few weeks back stated that the average system lasted 2.8 days before being discarded. Make a promise to go for 3-6 months before making any type of decision on long-term viability.

This forum really is a Goldmine so dig deep, demand value and you're off and racing!!

Best of luck!

The Schmile

Well.Being one of the brightest sparks around and the "Battlers Friend"a majority of good priced winners are a must as is being OVERCAPITALIZED.
That way your not betting peanuts on Odds On Favs for the Place.
There are many useful things on the forum.Seek and you will find.

Hope that helps Tarzan and how is Cheetah these days.
Cheers
darky

I assume you are talking about this post :


I had a read and your followup posts but got lost.

Laying for $100 ? What do you mean by lay the fav to $110 ?
Is that your liability ?

For example if fav was $3.00 then you would lay it to profit $55 and lose $110 (disregard other horses for the moment). Or does it mean you would lay it to profit $110 and lose $220.

Or have I completely not followed this at all ?

Funny i missed that post, but anyways what he means is payout so if the fav was $3.00 you would lay $36.66 or closes and lay $37 so the lower the odds the more of your money you are risking.

How long is a piece of string? Everybody is going to give a different answer to these questions.

One feature of the "perfect" betting system is that it's returns must be relative to the amount of time spent producing them i.e. if I spend all of Friday doing form study for Saturday's meetings and then spend all Saturday working those selections, I'd expect my Saturday returns to be higher than if I simply employed a bot to pick all the selections and do the work for me.

The perfect system is one that doesn't lose money. Compounding does everything else. ;)

Perfect betting system?

Surely that is one that never looses and wins you a fortune from starting with a 1 dollar coin. That would be the perfect system in my books, but also totally unrealistic.

A method that picks winners not so favoured by the majority i.e. one that picks value selections that are over the odds.