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-   -   Testing Barrier positions (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24859)

lomaca 28th August 2012 12:38 PM

Testing Barrier positions
 
Need help to confirm my findings.

Someone mentioned that certain tracks/distances/bPos combos are profitable in their own right.

I tested all tracks/distances/bpositions separately up-to BP 12 and found nothing of the sort.

If anyone found a track/distance/barrier position combination showing promise, doesn't have to win, just losing a little, without any other filters, and willing to let me know I'd be grateful and check it again and compare with my results in case I made a mistake, unlikely, but anything is possible.

No need for the distance or BP just the track name.

In return I'd be happy to offer my findings for all tacks.
Knowing the % advantage of different BP can tip the balance of choosing one runner over the other when all other things are equal.

I tested all races I have results for, since 2000 and despite over 11 years, some minor provincial and country tracks have few races once they are broken down by distance. Not surprising really some only have a few meetings a year.

If anyone interested good, if not, also good.
Thank you

kiwiz 28th August 2012 12:46 PM

Thoroughbred racing or red hots?

lomaca 28th August 2012 01:05 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiz
Thoroughbred racing or red hots?
At this stage gallops only but can test box returns for a year or so for dogs, but they are pretty much available anyway.
Thanks

kiwiz 28th August 2012 01:12 PM

Oh ok
Horse racing not harness racing

Vortech 28th August 2012 05:04 PM

Doomben 1010m barrier one

norisk 28th August 2012 05:43 PM

Also came up dry many years ago when investigating track/barrier relationships, so I just go with - the ranker the barrier posy, the longer the price, makes it harder but doesn't prevent them for winning on occasion.

Luxinterior 28th August 2012 06:40 PM

Happy Valley
Inside six gates 1000m and 1200m.
Don't know if data is easily available or not.

Also, rail placement could have an effect on your results on some tracks.

UselessBettor 28th August 2012 06:43 PM

There are some interesting problems when analysing this over such a large timeframe. Some tracks have completely been rebuilt in that time. Some have moved the finishing post which alters the starting position.

These changes can have a big affect on the barrier bias in that it may move the starting position closer or further from the first corner. The further the starting stalls are from the first corner the less affect barriers have.

These sorts of things can be frustrating at times.

lomaca 28th August 2012 07:27 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
There are some interesting problems when analysing this over such a large timeframe. Some tracks have completely been rebuilt in that time. Some have moved the finishing post which alters the starting position.

These changes can have a big affect on the barrier bias in that it may move the starting position closer or further from the first corner. The further the starting stalls are from the first corner the less affect barriers have.

These sorts of things can be frustrating at times.
I can do it year to year so any sudden change would show up.

Luxinterior,
I have the results for HPV and SHA for at least a year.
so far I can't see any difference to any other track anywhere.

That's why I asked if anyone has a half decent result for any track to let me know so that I can check if I have made a mistake. ( don't think I did!)

Sometimes an anomaly jumps up, like Pakenham Barrier 8 at a distance almost breaks even, yes until you check and find, that there were three longshot winners, but barrier 7 and 9 are not following suit.

So you have to ask what's so different about bp 8? Nothing as it happens only the long shot winners which may never happen again.

I can accept that the inside barriers are better, no doubt, but there can't be any glaring difference between three outside barrier next to each other.

UselessBettor 28th August 2012 07:59 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Sometimes an anomaly jumps up, like Pakenham Barrier 8 at a distance almost breaks even, yes until you check and find, that there were three longshot winners, but barrier 7 and 9 are not following suit.

So you have to ask what's so different about bp 8? Nothing as it happens only the long shot winners which may never happen again.

Perhaps we are looking at it from the wrong viewpoint. What makes a barrier better ? the Odds returned by the horse are probably irrelevant as the barrier is probably taken into account by the punters.

You should probably concentrate on strike rate to be purely objective. But this doesn't help you much if its already taken into account by everyone else betting on the race.


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