How to find an Edge!
 

Part 1.
This thread will be the first in a series of tutorials with the aim to find an edge in racing statistics. You could use it for Dogs, Trots or Gallopers. It is aimed at newbie punters, without the benefit of a searchable database of past results, and will arm you with both the discipline and techniques to improve your win strike rate, be it Backing or Laying. I am passing on everything I have learnt in the past six months since deciding I wanted to make an income out of punting.

You need to decide on a Price Range that you want to investigate. It might be odds/on, mid range or longshot prices. In my examples I am looking at 1st favourite odds/on gallopers, price range $1.00 ~ $2.00. The techniques I will pass on will empower you to exploit any price range of results and find if there are any profitable niches.
These niches are not found looking at a racebook or the racing sports page. Once armed with the knowledge gained from your examination of results you will be able to write your own filters and rules to guide you through each day of your punting life.

Firstly you need to gather at least 300 race results that included a horse within your price range. You can source all this information from Betfair & Racing & Sports, I have attached an excel spreadsheet view to guide you. The data you'll need:
Date of race
Venue
Race No.
Number of runners
Horse No.
Horse name
Betfair Start price
Last 3 starts recorded as: if first start 'FS', if 2nd start 'SS', if returning from spell 'RFS', if 2nd or more times returning from spell '2RFS'. if horse has had a min of 3 starts in current campaign then record numerical finish position of last 3 starts.
+ or - weight change of rider since last start in kgs
+ or - distance change since last start in metres
Class change since last race recorded as either 'up in class', 'down in class' or 'no' change in class.
Result of race recorded as 'Won' or 'Lost'
Maiden race or not?
2nd Favourite's Betfair Starting price
Win strike rate as a %
First up strike rate as a %

In the 2nd part of this tutorial we will begin to analyse what we have recorded for profitable filters.

Part 2
OK you've gathered your min 300 results. Now from the image attached you'll see that I have a sample of 11 results. I can tell you that from my stats the numer of races WON by an odds/on favourite is about 54%. So to simplify things for this tutorial, it works out to be about 6 winners to 5 losers hence the sample of 11 races I've shown.

Under the results I've sorted and displayed races "Won" at the top and races "Lost" underneath. You don't have to do this but it helps visualise what's going on. Now on the right of the sorted group we are going to enter a formula as if we were Backing the horses, and adjacent, a formula as if we were Laying the horses.
At cell Q18 enter this formula and then copy and paste it down to cell Q28:

=IF(L18="Won",(G18-1)*93.5,-100)

At cell R18 enter this formula and then copy and paste it down to cell R18:

=IF(L18="Lost",(100/(G18-1))*0.935,-100)

These formula will calculate the nett profit or loss based on whether our horse won or lost. Now enter =SUM(range) at bottom of the two columns to see the result.

If we were Backing Odds/On favourites we would have LOST $98.89 and
If were Laying Odds/On favourites we would have LOST $65.68.

Most punters don't even bother with this examination, they make a quid one day and it makes them feel good. Then another day they'll lose, have the irrates, but be back for more, absolutely mindless to the workings behind this Price range and none the wiser for their experience.

Still, for those of you that have just done this excercise, it doesn't look like a very profitable area of punting does it?
Well I'm here to tell you that by the time I've finished this tutorial and you go off and put it into practice, you'll be sending me a bottle of Moet every Christmas as a thankyou! .....RP

Part 3

One of the pluses with laying Odds/On selections is that because the odds are less than evens, we get a greater return than our original stake/liability. For the backers they get less back! The downside is that odds/on horses win more than they lose to compensate. This is not always the case, and will be detailed in another post.

So providing the horses keep losing and you keep Laying you're a long way in front of the Backers. Now this can be a double edged sword because if at the same time as we Lay the favourite, we Dutch Back the field, we can double our profit!

Look at the attached image of the Betfair results for a race won by "Pinpoint" @ $1.53 SP. Let's say "Pinpoint" lost, it makes no difference to the prices.

"Pinpoint" loses and our profit for $100 liability is (100/1.53-1)*0.935 = $176.41
At the same time we 'Back the Field' using a Dutching calculator (best done by a bot) that I've shown as well.

The result is a profit of $213.43 less commission = $199.55 on top of the $176.41........A total of $375.96

One qualification, your Dutching bot is placing SP bets so there is going to be slippage of stakes v final prices as the SP prices aren't known till after the race starts. Sometimes it can work in your favour, sometimes against. For the purposes of all future tutorials we will assume that your Dutch bet was successful and work on a total profit of 2 x Lay win as profit.

Hi RP. Very interesting stuff so far (thanks for that) but in your Part 3 you have not told the story of when the odds on fave wins. You then have to pay out on your lay bet AND you lose the $100 stake for your dutch backing bets. Granted you would ONLY lose $200 rather than winning $375 (in this case) so maybe that's where your system beats the odds?

Now you're getting the hang of it. There's still a way to go yet, it'll be worthwhile.
Thanks for recording your interest TO, I'd hate to think no one is interested! if I can help ONE person, it's been worth it.

More tomorrow.....RP

Thanks RP. I make it you are about $11 better off than just laying the odds on fave although does that take into account commission and turnover charges?

You would be up $76 if the odds on horse loses for just laying or up $87.50 for both laying the odds on horse and backing the rest of the field in this scenario. ($187.50 is half of $375 just to even it all out for $100). I hope that makes sense.

Don't be in too much of a hurry to think you've worked out the Edge! The Edge is in turning the tables on the win strike rate!
RP

RP
I am sure that everybody is interested but give us time to digest it and form an opinion. I know that I am.

RP
I'm reading, mind ticking over and will waiting patiently.
Thanks for sharing.
Just thinking I don't use bots but could dutch using fixed odds on other bookmakers site and just lay on the BF exchange.

Thank's Willy, but by the time you manually type in the odds for the field, the race has probably started. It has to be done within a few seconds. You could make enough money to pay for the bot in one or two bets. You need a bot that can place the Back & Lay bets at the same time, all staked correctly in the last couple of seconds before the close.
RP