Punters Sentiment Meter?
 

Need a bit of excel help here (walkermac, the maestro, where are you?)

This idea could be of interest to all and sundry though. In DNA of a Longshot Winner, I toyed with the idea of a pattern recognition theory using the flucs. It assigned a colour if on course flucs shortened, drifted or steady. This time I'm looking at all the Betfair flucs from Open to Close.

The Logic: If they're are more shorteners than drifter flucs, you could say that punters reckon the selection's got a chance and vice versa. Well the jury's out on that one! You could look at weight of money too, but I haven't seen anything conclusive there either. However if you included the price value into the equation, could that be more reliable?

In the attachment are the Betfair flucs of four runners in a race. The closing fluc is always the top of each column of flucs. Working from bottom to top, the Open fluc is assigned a positive number to begin each sequence. Any consecutive number higher than previous fluc remains a positive number. Any consecutive number lower than the previous is assigned a negative value (red text). At the end of each sequence, in col E, the sum of the positive and negative flucs is totalled. It's getting columns D & E to work in excel, is my bugbear, as it needs to recognise the change to next runner, as well as higher or lower value of cell under.

Once I've got that, I can Pivot Table the spreadsheet and see what values were place getters and whether or not there's a pattern emerging.

Thanks in anticipation :)

hehehe,
Your having a lend.

Might be, but check this out. Notice anything about the Sum of the first 3 placegetters compared to the rest?

All these sorts of things are building blocks that might not work stand alone, but combined with a few others might build you a successful system/method. So take off the blinkers and look around where no one else is looking. ;)

I have to make some assumptions here. Firstly this is not a one off. Secondly that you have noticed a trend. Thirdly it is a significant trend. Fourthly you have only looked a small sample and alerting us.
How many samples have you looked at and how many match your observations?
Furthermore this could only be done with Betfair as the oncourse flucs are a result of human manipulation. Similarly it could not be done on tote prices as the weight of money on any horse affects all prices.

The Betfair flucs are matching of a lay bet and back bet, and is a matter of accepting what is available at the time. Each and every matched bet creates a fluc. Hence this would need to be automated as some races must generate thousands of flucs. The Cup would most likely be the benchmark, so how many flucs occur in that event?

First and foremost, this thread is not a Gimme, no keys to the kingdom here, unless you're prepared to put in the time consuming effort of collecting data and analysing it. That'll cut out 98% of readers, sad but true. If it turns out to be successful, I certainly won't be spruiking about it, shhh!!

Just an idea based on a little logic and a spoonful of observations. The main purpose is to glean from others, more adept at excel, a formula so that I can test a large sample. Then, anyone reading this thread will have the IDEA and the TOOLS to test for themselves.

Just when I was getting the hang of the younger generation and their expectation of ask and you will receive because one has the God given right to anything one wants, you go and tell me to be Lieutenant Rowan. Besides "keys to the kingdom" implies that one would have to unlock the door. I was of the opinion that the younger generation expects the door to be already open.

Keep these left field ideas coming.

I,ll pass.
hehehe

Re-using some of those inelegant formulas again (though it has its advantages as well)


In D2:


In E2:


In F2:


In G2:



Fill Down.


Remember me when you earn too much money to spend... ;)

Works a treat, thanks again and again.

Don't worry walkermac, if I come up with something viable, I'll repay you in spades.

Cheers

Cheap fella. Spring for some Crownies at least