I certainly can't say for certain that a certain Chris Judd can certainly win the Brownlow Medal,But I can say for certain that $7.50 is certainly over the odds.
He is the best chance of about 4 chances which makes his true odds at about $3.00.
He's got $100 of mine riding on him.

AFL BROWNLOW MEDAL 100/1 & UNDER

TREDREA Warren (Port) $6.00
RIEWOLDT Nick (StK) $8.00
JUDD Chris (WCE) $8.50
BLACK Simon (Bris) $9.00
WHITE Jeff (Melb) $9.00
LAPPIN Nigel (Bris) $10.00
CORNES Chad (Port) $10.00
LING Cameron (Geel) $11.00
RICCIUTO Mark (Adel) $13.00
JONES Austinn (StK) $21.00
YZE Adem (Melb) $26.00
HASLEBY Paul (Frem) $28.00
HIRD James (Ess) $31.00
SCARLETT Matthew (Geel) $31.00
AKERMANIS Jason (Bris) $35.00
BELL Peter (Frem) $35.00
HALL Barry (Syd) $35.00
WEST Scott (WBdg) $35.00
POWER LUKE (Bris) $41.00
BRUCE Cameron (Melb) $41.00
VOSS Michael (Bris) $51.00
McPHEE Adam (Ess) $71.00
CORNES Kane (Port) $71.00
FLETCHER Chad (WCE) $71.00
KIRK Brett (Syd) $81.00
LAPPIN Matthew (Carl) $101.00
GREEN Brad (Melb) $101.00
HARVEY Robert (StK) $101.00

Apparently, there's already been about 10 different Brownlow favourites so far this year.

Mo, who are those 4 chances? What do you think about Jeff White? Melbourne's done well and he's been a pretty valuable player in most of their wins. Tredrea's played very well for Port too, although Cornes may have taken some votes off him. Anyway, I think I'll hold off betting on anyone until Round 22 is finished. I'll see what the odds look like then.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-08-11 12:17 ]

Four chances are

Judd
Tredrea
St.Kilda
Brisbane

Because there is no standout for St.Kilda or Brisbane,I don't favour any individual performance warranting maximum votes.
Haven't seen enough of Melbourne to know of Jeff Whites prospects,but it seems similar to above two teams.
Barry Hall could be a smokey,but does a bag of goals sway umpires more than a bag of possesions.
Work it out this way.
1 point in every round gives 22 points.Do that and you have a Brownlow medal around your neck.
Problem with Tredrea is,every time Port lose,he doesn't get any votes.Not so with Judd.
Gee,I've almost convinced myself to put more on him.

All punters should remember this is the "midfield medal" not the brownlow medal. Wayne Carey, the most dominant, game breaking chf couldn't win the medal and Plugger was the last forward to win the medal when he kicked 130 goals. I reckon Hall, Tredrea, Cornes etc have NO HOPE!!
There looks to be 3 hopes for mine Judd- he's had a great year, the press love him, he's explosive and he doesn't backchat.Also, cousins and kerr have been reasonably quiet this year so i can't see them pinching to many votes off him. White too has been the dominant ruckmen and I reckon he'll poll really well. The third hope as I see it is Nigel Lappin. He has been consistent from round 1 this year and wouldn't the umps love to see the last member of the FAB 4 win the medal.But if I had to have 1 pick it's Juddy.

My picks for every teams leading brownlow votgetter

Ade- Ricciuto (no contest)
Bri - Lappin
Car- Lappin ( a reliable carlton supporter tells me he's a lock)
Coll- Licuria or Ben Johnson
Ess- Hirdy
Fre- Hasleby (great start to the year, will lead the count at round 10)
Geel- Ling
Haw- Who cares? Maybe J.Smith
Melb- White
Kang- Simpson
Rich- Richo (lock)
Saints- Toughy, Harvey, Riewolt DelSanto or Hayes
Swans- Jude Bolton. Umpires hate big bad barry
Port- Tredrea/ Shaun Burgoyne
West Coast- WINNER Chris Judd
Western Bulldogs- Scott west

Yeah, I haven't done all that well backing the overall winner in recent years (missing out on Woewoedin and Akermanis), but I have done well with some of the other bets, like backing the leading votegetters from each team.

Last year I again made a small loss on the overall winner thanks to Buckley not winning outright, but I made a nice profit on other bets, because I picked 8 from 8 with my team bets. I think they are the ones I will be really concentrating on.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-09-20 16:09 ]

My season analysis reveals a surprise. Chad Fletcher has the same number of votes as Chriss Judd.

It also shows Tredrea losing votes to Chad Cornes and Gehrig (ineligible) to poll better then Riewoldt.

The analysis reveals two good value bets for me....Matthew Scarlett and James Hird.

Wouldn't surprise to see Melbourne's Brown do OK too.

Nice to see you delve into the archives Privateer.
Wish you luck,but get the impression you have over-weighted the form factors somewhat.
Fine backman Scarlett certainly is,but Brownlow medal is not won by backmen.
Hird tends to stand out as winning games,games when they were there to be won,rather than a consistently useful game.

N.Riewoldt has eased on sportstab $1.22-$1.28 and sports acumen $1.25-$1.33 for most st kilda votes,surely he couldnt lose, could he ?