In-Form Distance Winners
 

This is a sure way to pick winners Glenno but I fear everyone else would see it too and ,consequently,drive the price down to the point where it MIGHT be hard to make it pay. Form at the distance (or thereabouts) is a great indicator but I find most horses so inconsistent that I'm loathe to bet on last-start winners unless........the price is right!!(ie the ones which DO salute make up for all those which let you down). Plus you've got the hassle with deciding on class rises or falls from that last start.
My niece won the 400 at the local school carnival 2 weeks ago but now she's racing Cathy Freeman: should I back her? At evens...no;at 50-1....maybe ;at a million to one....definitely for $1!!!!!
Much as I like these system ideas it's the rigidity that brings most undone.This is not to say that one can't win with a good pricing mechanism factored in as well.Anyhow keep us informed as it makes sense.Good luck and cheers.

I definitely agree with the point you make about this system.

Cathy Freeman is coming off a pretty lengthly spell and your neice certainly qualifies under rule 2. I think the 50 - 1 is worth taking.

System selections for 6/8/2005

Randwick
Race 4: Gallieni third NTD ($1.50 at 1/3 odds)
Race 8: Trick on Track unplaced ($18.00 at 1/4 odds)

Caulfield
Race 2: Speedy Rossa unplaced ($9.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 3: Maduro second $1.40 ($3.80 at 1/4 odds)
Race 6: Super Elegant second $1.90 ($2.60 at 1/3 odds)
Race 7: Madison Lane unplaced ($4.80 at 1/4 odds)

Eagle Farm
Race 1: Swap second $2.40 ($6.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 7: Cajun Steel second $2.70 ($10.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 8: Special Langfuhr unplaced ($16.00 at 1/4 odds)

Morphettville
Race 3: Sonic Lad unplaced ($15.00 at 1/4 odds, deductions of 25x19)
Race 6: Liberty Glen unplaced ($9.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 8: Abyssinian unplaced ($4.20 at 1/4 odds)

So a bad day with 12 selections for five minor placings (four of them paying a place dividend) but no winners.

Selections for 13/8/2005

Rosehill
Race 1: Above Deck second $1.40 ($1.95 at 1/3 odds)
Race 6: Dance Hero second $1.50 ($2.25 at 1/3 odds)

Moonee Valley
Race 1: Easy Plan unplaced ($6.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 2: Plans first $2.80/$1.50 ($3.50 at 1/4 odds)
Race 3: Spectacular Storm first $3.70/$1.60 ($3.60 at 1/4 odds)
Race 4: Freestyle third NTD ($6.50 at 1/3 odds)
Race 7: Robbo's Pal unplaced ($14.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 9: Shasta unplaced ($9.00 at 1/4 odds)

Eagle Farm
Race 1: Umaprince second $1.80 ($7.50 at 1/4 odds)
Race 2: Bridie Bow unplaced ($12.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 3: Spur Me On unplaced ($3.50 at 1/4 odds)
Race 4: Awesome Flash unplaced ($26.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 7: Teldawn unplaced ($6.00 at 1/4 odds)

Morphettville
Race 4: Bellanto first $4.30/$1.60 ($4.80 at 1/4 odds)
Race 5: Lady of the Desert first $3.30/$1.60 ($3.80 at 1/4 odds)
Race 8: Rainbow Fortune unplaced ($41.00 at 1/4 odds)

A better result than the preceding Saturday.

Selections/results for 20/8/2005

Randwick
Race 1: Monterrico unplaced ($3.50 at 1/4 odds)
Race 7: Media unplaced ($4.20 at 1/4 odds)
Race 9: For Valour third $3.80 ($19.00 at 1/4 odds)

Caulfield
Race 1: Radiant Star unplaced ($4.40 at 1/4 odds)
Race 2: Final Express second $2.30 ($4.60 at 1/3 odds)
Race 3: Pinezero first $4.60/$1.80 ($7.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 6: Our Smoking Joe second $2.70 ($8.50 at 1/4 odds)

Doomben
Race 1: Fires of Ireland unplaced ($13.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 2: Matinee unplaced ($5.50 at 1/4 odds)
Race 5: Words of Magic unplaced ($4.20 at 1/4 odds)
Race 7: Malta unplaced ($7.50 at 1/4 odds)

Cheltenham
Race 2: Red Hot Rose unplaced ($14.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 5: Tarnpir Lad third $3.10 ($9.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 8: Lesvos Lady unplaced ($41.00 at 1/4 odds)

RESULTS
Selections: 42
Wins: 5 (11.90%)
Places (1-2-3): 18 (42.86%)
Win return: $18.70 (SuperTAB); $22.70 (SP)
Place return: $33.10 (SuperTAB); $37.09 (SP)
Number of runners: 438 (9.59%)
Number of winners: 42 (11.90%)
Relative frequency factor: 1.2415
Expected number of winners: 7.8206
Actual-to-expected ratio: 0.6408

27/8/2005

Rosehill
Race 2: Taken at the Flood unplaced ($10.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 3: Barberton unplaced ($10.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 8: To Be Surprised unplaced ($41.00 at 1/4 odds)

Caulfield
Race 8: Party Pie unplaced ($4.00 at 1/4 odds)

Doomben
Race 1: Double Bis unplaced ($21.00 at 1/4 odds)
Race 2: Oliver's Magic first $4.40/$1.60 ($4.80 at 1/4 odds)
Race 5: Lord Rupert second $4.50 ($11.00 at 1/4 odds)

Morphettville
Race 1: Iggy first $2.20/$1.30 ($2.10 at 1/4 odds)
Race 3: Nozi unplaced ($3.60 at 1/4 odds)
Race 6: Royal Suit third $1.80 ($3.80 at 1/4 odds)

Apart from a usually lousy price, one of the big problems for a system using last start winners is that a large percentage of runners only win one race per preparation and a lot don't even manage that. Not much point backing them after they have had their win and especially if they have had 2 wins this prep. [or more] and at underlay odds to boot.