Media Shortcomings
 

Are there others out there who feel that we punters are being short-changed by some so called media racing "experts?" These individuals are actually being paid to provide their "incisive" thoughts and let's face it, some are found wanting in their appraisals.
In recent statements by these "experts" we have heard comments, which, whilst not being word exact, the comments are as accurate as can be expected:
1) "if all the favourites won, nobody would bet"......duuuuh!
2) " the public are not entitled to know if there are to be a change of riding tactics in upcoming races"....duuuh!
3) After the recent Qld enquiry, another "expert" was heard to say something similar to: "doesn't matter if the punters have no confidence, they'll still back up next race, next day, next week.......
If you punters who actually keep this game viable think these comments are inappropriate then please share your views with the rest of we punting tragics.

Cheers.

There would be plenty, but i'm not one, as i only listen to a couple of certain melbourne tipsters and NO -ONE -ELSE , i then turn the radio off and do my own form, use to listen a lot in the past but some of the dribble that they spit out is UTTER CRAP.

i have never listened to the experts i assume they get as many winners or more than most but there is a trick in it.
back in the days of joe brown and frank obrien and bert bryant we used to marvel at the similarities of the selections and the first 3 in the market.
statistically these win the higher percentage of races.
a tipster must be able to say he scores 33% of first selections to be a good tipster and what better way than to stay with the market.
as for inane comments generally i think they sound okay.

i like larry olsen as he is a considered commentator and doesnt get clever in his remarks.

GM,who do you listen to?
I thought Shane Templeton was a pretty good judge but they have taken him off the Qld Tab station.
Do you know if he still tips?
And yes Xanadu I think they take us for mugs.

I think they're great, they give ****************house tips so the real chances odds are greatly enhanced, bring on more.

I dont mind brendan tupper. I always make my own decisions based on my own form study but occasionaly will have a small interest bet when tupper has tipped something for 1st or 2nd that is paying over $20. I agree with Ed, they do help in getting value for your horse when the herd is following them, its just a shame if they tip the horse you like. As far as those comments made I would take them with a pinch of salt. The average punter is a mug and probably deserve it.

check tuppers tips out today at Ballarat. 5 races, 2 trifectas, 2 out of 3 in other 3 races.... not bad.

I would suggest that your comments on so-called experts in the beginning probably spawned the thought that you should go with your own judgement.

I believe that if you follow the horses for long enough and immerse yourself in information for long enough there is very little someone else can tell you. Not to say that you should'nt be open to what other people say but there is so much information at your fingertips now that you can be become a so called expert yourself.

For starters I would never listen to a race caller for tips because his job is a race caller - duuhh. Similar vein for a journo.

I find in Sydney the thoughts of Dufficy and Lambourne worth listening to but ultimately my bets are my thoughts.

Is there anyone else who finds it a laugh that bookies give out free tips. Like they would want you to back winners with them.

punters must do some form to win at all over a period of time,those punters who rely on tab markets move will eventually be working for the goverment.

a punter should limit his or hers daily wages and bet when you think there is value.framing your own markets is a great head start and what joy it is when you price one at $2.75 then the tab or bookies offer $8.00 each way all day you then dont have to be right to often to show a cop.
some race callers often give good selections at odds that run well thats shows to me that they are doing there form as well as calling(how do they do it ?).
some callers tip 1.2.3 in most races mmm but all in order they do i fantastic job.
i like tippsters who can tell if they will lead easily,or there is so much pace in this it should suit those at the back of the pack.
be careful of early morning favourites on a saturday 10.00am media talk eg:6 tipsters,2 callers,all forms of tv,radio,paper all tipping no.3 in the first all of a sudden no.3 opens $1.60 but should be $3.80 pros have a field day when this occurs.
bet win only with the tote and each way with the bookies,treat trifectas and other forms of multi betting as a token bet.these bet types have higher take out figures and you will collect every pancake day,trifectas are good if you really hook in but you need plenty folding.
wet tracks are ok to bet in but they need to be class4 or better remember on a heavy track there will be 60% of the field who will not get through it that leaves 40% that have a winning chance.if any runners in that 40% are $9.00 or better and conditions suit then you step in and have a bet remaember bet when there is value if you rate one at $10.00 and they are offering $4.50 then ignore the race.
take note of your jockey he or she must have there eye in (nothing worse then watching a jock out of form these riders cannot hold there form all year round remember that most immportant.
good luck all.

Some great advice there Hawkeye ..good stuff.
personally i've never taken much stock in any media tipsters..

Today was good example ..Mr Kiseki was a risky e/w chance today at the Sunny Coast..Brasil tipped it a special and it jumped at around $4 ..for a horse up in class with poor form over rall...
the toppy was the better horse and won like it..
agree completely about trifectas..my strikerate has increased a huge amount largely due to an increased stake ..
same with 1st 4's..

Thank you all for the interesting and informative posts on this topic...Hawkeye, you mention value (which I hear a lot from other forum members) and I note that some members give selections but only on the proviso that the horse is paying a certain divvie and not to go below this...

I know that this has been asked before and excuse my ignorance...can I ask how do you determine what that minimum value should be (FYI, I have a rating system that Ive been working on) and if a horse wins then (as an objective viewer) would that not be considered good enough?....always hard to pick winners as it is...if one doubles one's $$$ is that an acceptable return?
And finally, if you mention win bets only on the TAB...is it safer to back each way and know that there is some return if your pick just misses out or does your experience suggest that there is a greater return in the long run?

Again thanks all for your contributions and have to say that I have a been on an accelerated learning curve these last 6 months...great stuff!!

Sorry, me again...Hawkeye, you briefly mentioned bet types and methods...I have had difficulty maximising the $$ benefit of my selections and find that at the end of long day that I end up slightly ahead or even or worse, way down...it seems that knowing when and what and how to bet has a major impact on one's $$$ (at the end of the punting day)...

I have found more success betting on smaller fields although good returns and value can be found in the larger ones and tend to avoid exotics as I agree (with you) that you need a lot of $$$ to be successful...however I have seen a few Quinellas (exactas also) go by but dont know how one bets on these to get maximum benefit...any thoughts please that might point me in the right direction?

Desi,

Win betting, in my opinion is overall the best option. unless your horse is double figures, then e/w or straight out place is acceptable. This is due to the greatly superior odds one can attain for win betting to the supposedly proposed 1/4 odds available the place, this is very rarely the case. e.g paying $3.00 win $1.30 the place. Value is extremely hard to evaluate, if you can do it, your a pro. But i feel you don't have to be an expert to bet smart. If you looks at enough races, betting changes etc, you'll start to get a grasp of roughly how much your horse should be paying.

I have not yet fully ventured into Multiple betting yet, but am keen to. I do video form, and analyse (ussually) every horse in the race, i feel my knowledge of a particular race could be used more productively using trifectas, exactas etc. As Mav and Hawkeye have stated, you can't be stinngy and leave viable selections out because they cost to much.

How do you determine value ?
 

Desi posed the question earlier as to " how do you determine value ?" . The answer is probably much like the perennial question of how long is a piece of string. There is no correct answer only personal preference.

In short though,value determines wherther or not you will make a profit over the long term . If you consistently back $2.50 runners and only win 33% of the time you will make a loss. If you invest the same money on $4 runners which you have assessed at $2.50 and you are right 33% of the time you will make a profit.The art is in identifying runners that are otherwise not considered winning chances by the general public. One must identify runners whose odds are not diluted due to mass media exposure, sky flashers, late mail tips on the radio etc .

Another method is to use work out the percentage chance of your horse and multiplying this by the decimal percentage odds of each horse. Where i have rated a horse showing $4.00 in the pre race market at 100 % ( or points) I invest 25 units ( 100% x 100/$4.00) whereas if I rate the same horse at 90 points I wager 22.50 units ( 90% x 100/$4.00) and so on. Hope this helps anyway.

John

Thanks John and Mr Ed for your input...

I listen to 2ky in the mornings and follow their racing programme for the week...I have noticed that while some of the pundits who offer tips are quite good (agree race callers can come up with useful picks...must record which ones are lol) generally the rest of them would appear to fall way below the success rate % of forum members (eg William, XPT, Mav, Mr Ed, etc.)


My observation though is (and has been pointed out by your posts) that having the data, information, tips or whatever is only part of the equation and perhaps I may be overcomplicating the whole thing but I think I can improve on not so much my strike rate but my $$$ profit if I have a different approach...

I will follow up on your suggestions- watching the markets...working out what I feel is value in relation to the markets...and calculating the appropriate amount to wager on selections...

Thank you again...

Desi,

You can't look for value unless you have a price for your selection/s. Alternatively if you have a system that returns winners 25% of the time, getting more than $4.00 for your selections may then be considered value.

Once you have your price you can then know if what you are getting is value or not.

You will find there are generally two types of people on this forum.
Ones that by whatever method, price their selections and then shop for value.

And then others (by far the majority) who have a system that selects a certain percentage of winners and they just accept whatever the best price is they can get, regardless of whether it is value. They then hope that the average of the prices they can get is enough to show a profit.

You will get arguments for one or the other and I am not here to say one is better than the other, the choice is yours, as it always is when gambling on the horses. Destiny is in your own hands.

gday desi i find quinella betting fun more collects more often,choose ideally one meeting no need to bet on every rcea at that meeting when you find a race with limited chances say 4 selections and are certain that they are the only hopes then box them $6 for the $1 unit you will be surprised how often you collect,you wont get rich but lots of fun to be had.exacta betting is ok i like to put the short price fav to run second alone with say 3 or 4 in the market to win $4 for the $1 unit shorties have a habit of running second.good punting desi

win only on the tab can give some great returns but when betting each way i suggest the bookies they return 1/4 ODDS THE PLACE WHEN 8 OR MORE STARTERS TAB NOT AS CONSISTENT EG.$9.00 WIN 8/1 and $2.10 PLACE10/9 bookies $9.00 WIN 8/1 and$3.00 PLACE 2/1 it doesnt sound like much but we back more plce getters than winners so overall better off thats if you can get to the track to compare odds good punting all.

i rarely bet at tamworth but there meeting on tuesday looks real good,take alook at these quinella suggestions and pretend you are working on the box four system.race1.1/3/4/5 race3.1/6/7/9 race5.3/6/7/9 race8.1/3/5/9 these bets would cost $24.00 for the dollar unit see what the return is at the end of the day.

16/08/05

Who Is Brendan Tupper
 

Brendan Tupper seems to go alright in his tips..... What is his background?

Naive aren't I !!??

I heard a "tip" from a prominent media commentator today(25.7.06):
MR8 5 Baltic Storm
guess what....? it ran unplaced!
If there is any obvious evidence that some of these "tipsters" should hand in their licence then this is the prime example!
The bloke who gave his "inside tip" isn't a bad bloke but he should give up the punt and stick to his on-screen career.
Truly, this bloke's moniker from now on is:
Most
Unlikely
Gain,.......
....punters, stick to your own selections despite the "push" these "e*****s" give the punting public!

Cheers.

?
 

BE FUNNY IF HE MARRIED A WOMAN WITH THE SURNAME WARE. HEHEHE

His nickname is "Whoppa."

Just on people getting married. Former good female tennis player Barbara Schett has married German champ Tommy Haas.
She has kept her own surname and added Tommy's. Quite a name, up there with Martha Focker from the Fockers movie.

LOL
 

LOL. THATS A CLASSIC. HEHEHE

Does anyone else share my longheld misgivings that some media tipsters may not necessarily back or support the very runners which they recommend to the broader betting public?
Accordingly, punters, trust your own opinion and do a bit of your own formstudy/research and support the runner(s) which your own calculations suggest have a real chance of winning or running well.

Cheers.

SR3 Wyong,

In the prelude to this race, I could not believe the logic of the commentator when evaluating the prospects of runners in the upcoming event!
He stated that No2 Nairobi won it's last start in a maiden and with the apprentice's claim(2kg) it held an advantage over the topweight, Twin Wing.
Twin Wing, the eventual winner(($1.6w $1.1plNSW) beat Nairobi in a close finish but on my calculations was an absolute certainty!
Any form student will confirm the most difficult rise in grade is from maiden class to class1. Yet, the eventual winner, Twin Wing(No1), had run a respectable race in Cl2 last start and was dropping back to Cl1 today!
Nairobi, had won a maiden last start carrying 51kg and was to carry 54.5kg today less the 2kg apprentice claim.
So,......I ask you ......where is the advantage for Nairobi? The topweight was always the class runner in the field and had a distinct advantage over Nairobi and proved this by winning, although the runner-up ran a respectable race!
Due to this "anomaly" I duly increased my bet on Twin Wing and duly collected.
Moral Of Story: trust your own judgment and wager accordingly!

Cheers.

The only time I take 'tipster' input into my calcs is when they tip something way outside my ratings. I usually collect much more than I would normally expect :)

Does anyone listen to the Saturday morning racing programs-whatever state that may be?
If you do then you would be going broke at an accelarating rate.
Some of these "tipsters".....well , what can I say.... their strike-rate would suggest that they may have to "get a real job!"
Why don't they get "fair dinkum" and tip the horses they feel have a real chance!
Any other sceptical punters out there....if so....please give us your views.

Cheers.

Well, the "Saturday crowd" as I personally describe these "tipsters" again failed to deliver. Their "specials" failed to salute the judge and one of their "lays" duly saluted, so, if they actually backed their own recommendations they would be broke in a very short space of time.....then again there is "arbitrage" isn't there?
Moral Of Story: Punters, please have faith in your own selections and support them accordingly........you will get better value!
On another note: I monitored a review program once and the panelist admitted that he rarely bets....well, what can I say.....it's like buying a motor vehicle from a used car dealer who had never driven a car!

Cheers

The affable commentator stated that "we did our money in the first(Syd) but I guarantee that we'll get it back in the 2nd: SR2 5 Memorisation.
Well, it ran like a dromedary!

Cheers.

MR5 1 Gorky Park ran unplaced,
kenchar is gunna give that anonymous tipster "heaps"
All in good fun!
Goodonya, cheers!
3:34p.m.AEDT
MR6 1 Polar Bear was a "MASSIVE" media push and hopefully no smart punters "fell" into this abyss-but, I am sure some "mug" punters did their money although all the signs were always there to "steer clear."
Some punters will never learn!

Well, there was a "goose" at it again the other day bringing out all the cliches and speaking on matters which are way beyond him considering, as he conceded himself- he does not bet.
We will call him "postage stamp" from now on because as a "wise" observer once noted:"his knowledge about punting could be recorded on the back of a postage stamp."

Cheers.

Oh dear.........,

Did anyone else hear the rant from a certain commentator berating the rule that connections are required to advise stewards and the betting public of a change in riding tactics?
He stated:..."why should they have to tell anyone....!" In his opinion if the stewards believe it was not ridden correctly they can take appropriate action.
Well, mate we punters live in the real world!
In this particular race the horse in question was ridden contrary to advertised tactics and duly saluted but the public were advised it was to be ridden in a completely different manner!
Yes, there should be a inquiry when such instances occur because the very people who pay your "fat" salary are those people/punters who should be protected from potentially dubious/suspect activities.
Now. go back to "Planet Zergon" or whatever planet you are living on because you definitely do not reside in the "real world!"

Cheers.

Within a very short space of time, twice, I have witnessed a well-respected long-term race-caller nominate the wrong horse in a close finish.
I acknowledge that race-calling is a particularly demanding job but equally, it is very disconcerting to those punters whose runner is being incorrectly called.
Perhaps it is time to give this "trouper" a gentle tap on the shoulder(NB. not NSW).

Cheers.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS A POSITIVE POST:-
Could I suggest that the ubiquitous Andrew Bensley be given his own program on TV. I have never witnessed a more informative "news-hound"/journalist, who provides the betting public with the absolute latest updates and information.
He is concisive, informative and does not resort to the "giggles" and cheap "white-anting" that some other less proficient commentators resort to, in attempting to "bring him back to the field."
Andrew, whose mobile phone must at times be in melt-down, continues to bring the pertinent news to the betting public, for which we will be eternally grateful. When does he get time to sleep............?
Could I suggest that other "hosts" take note and understand that the betting public do not want "pub comedians".....we want incisive, thorough reporting and there is none better than Andrew Bensley to provide the betting public with pertinent industry news.

Cheers.

I have never heard of him.
Where might i find his comments please.

Cheers.
darky.

He is a regular reporter on Skychannel and NSW racing radio 2KY! I presume he is also heard on 2KY's sister station in Victoria.
Have a good one.

Cheers.

Ok and thank you.

Cheers.
darky.