Early Cup Thought
 

Whats everyone thinkin about the cup? (Melbourne that is) Diva looks like she might not start but they might just be smokescreening. I like the look of the French horse Westerner but other than Vinnie internationals havent really performed well for a while. Whadaya u guys reckon

Hi all,

Any of you know how to get the qualification status for CC, Cox and MC?
I like :
For CC : Confectioner and Grey Song
Cox : FOO and Lad of the manor
MC : Xcellent, Grey Song and Confectioner.

As of today...

Hi Matilda,

Conditions for the major races can be found at .......

www.racingvictoria.net.au

As for the current order of entry, no lists have been posted to my knowledge.


dundas lane ..............

Caulfield Cup: Tick By

Melbourne Cup: Accumulate/Diva if she runs

Cox: Ace

Cox: Makaybe Diva
CC: Perlin. If Plastered is fit should grab this easy.
MC: Westerner

Good luck

Have a few multis on already, most I'm sure will be dead come race day , but the receipt always looks good showing ridiculous odds. My favourites I put with some roughies were Makybe Diva and Grey's Inn for the Cox Plate, Confectioner and Dizelle for the Caulfield and Xcellent and Plastered for the big one. The Cox Plate should be a great race but I don't think Makybe Diva shows great value at about $3 at present. Fields of Omagh at $9 should go well. Wondering if anyone else thought Stormhill could figure up there in either the Caulfield or MC?

As far as sydney stayers go, stormhill, railings and high cee are the pick og the crop IMO

Thanks Dundas Lane,

There is a ballot in CC and Mel Cup but not in Cox. Can the ballot be use as a guide?

Matilda.

As a rough guide. The club can include/exclude at their disgression. They left out Free at last last year which caused a huff. Also a few races allow horses excemption from the ballot so that can chane the ooe.

cheers

VOUVRAY for one of the silverware races.

I like Lad of the Manor for the Cox plate right now loved the way he toughed it out in the Dato Tan Chin Nam after an good 1st up run, He is by Zabeel so it would look that maybe the 2040m is going to hold no fears not to mention I wouldn't think he would be to far off the pace which for the most part you can't be in the Cox Plate.


Caulfield Cup: Vouvray is ready to win this this year IMO she has reeled off 2 great runs in her 2 starts this prep and regardless of whether she is being aimed at the race or not.

Melbourne Cup: Vouvray again if she doesn't win the other then she will go mightily close in this one another I do like is Hawkes horse Railings if these 3 horses win though it will be a trifecta to Zabeel that would be interesting.

excuse me raw

i think you are forgetting about a super mare by the name of makybe diva. to be 20 lengths back at the half way mark and to lose by the shortest of margins.. dont you think the extra 440m will suit her better??? if she could catch lad of the manor over the 1600, i think she will have a better sprint then lad over the 2040.....

Just noticed that the elimination order for both major cups are now available on the racingvictoria website.
The (xls) file is attached to the bottom of the news item, " Spring racing has an ace up the sleeve ".


dundas lane .............

For starters Bordi don't be surprised if there is about that much difference between them at some point in the Cox Plate She is probably going to have to come from a mile back where as I predict Lad of the Manor will most likely sit in the 1st half of the field. Every man and his dog wants to see Makybe Dive win the Cox Plate then the Melbourne Cup but I was looking for some value and took Lad at 13-1 I figured if he gets to the Cox Plate and actually races in it his form will most likely be to good for him to go out at those odds if he does though I will just load up again and have another shot.


Don't get me wrong I would not be against the Diva winning the Cox Plate but she will be running without mine on her mainly because her racing style is going to make it very hard for her to win the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley rarely do they come from very far back.

ur right raw i definitely think makybe isnt a good thing because the plate is run at moonee valley. at any other track she would win because of the room she would get in the straight. thats exactly why i backed lad of the manor on the weekend yet i reckon bordis right bout the extra 440m. my money would have again been on the lad but for the extra distance. it might just find it out against a horse with the class of diva.

I watched last Saturday's race a few times and am sure Lad o.t. Manor beat M. Diva as a result of a smart/lucky ride from Childs and poor/unlucky one from Boss.
Childs got a nice break at the top pf the straight, such a vital advantage at the Valley while Boss was 4 wide towards the back of the field.
I think given "equal" runs Makybe Diva would have won by 1 1/2 lengths going away.
I think Childs is a great Valley jockey and it suits his ability to ride at/near the front and judge the pace well. Pity they are planning to pull him off the horse - could be a huge difference in the Plate.
Commendable but expensive loyalty?

glenn boss will have learnt in regards to that ride. if makybe did not beat regal roller over 1400 a few weeks before than she will not have been the best backed coming into the 1600. the track is against her yes, however, the mare can do anything. boss has to sit just at the rear and not get too far back and if he does that she will win by at least 2 lengths. if ne1 wants to give me odds on 2 lengths ill take em lol. we must not forget a memorable run against one of the greatest horses in modern tym (elvstreom) where makybe smashed him over 2000m. the extra 40 is added bonus and as much of a super horse lad is, makybe is makybe.

does ne1 know if she is running in the caulfield? and if her melbourne cup run is certain yet? id lyk to jump on sportsbet if so. coz if she somehow doesnt win the cox, she will b quite hungry for the others..

Ha ha, suicidal pace in both the Feehan and The Australian cup set it up for her. Look at her runs the years before, Delzao outplugged her and she was smashed in the aus cup. She's a champ and been a great horse to me betting wise but I wouldnt get too carried away. If the pace is moderate she will find it very hard to win the cox. She needs it turned right on at that distance, I actually like FOO and Lad is racing in great heart and if plastered comes up this spring dont count him out. On weights and times he just about would have won the cox last year.

cheers

well if you feel lyk that then why does everyone state she needs wet tracks???? on good tracks the pace is naturally faster. it is her kick once she wants to go, doesnt matter what conditions, she usually finds the run. when a horse makes up 16 lengths to grand armee, who was one of australias greatest horses over the dist she beat him in, and 20 lengths over 800 against lad who is also a great horse, and unbeatable over track n dist, and we cant forget who she beat regal on his own track, conditions, and distance.


in my opinion, she will make up the ground from whereva she is in any race, however, being at the valley i feel the best ride for her would be boss to sit just off the 2nd last horse as king did against regal, bu i did lyk where she was against lad. she made he move b4 the straight n i personally thought she had him. give the extra 400m n i think she will snare him at the 200, maybe 100m mark n go on to win by at least 2 lengths. the only way she can possibly b beaten is by a front runner. and even then, she gets hungry.

ha ha, since when has grand armee been our best over 2400m. He's only had two starts over that trip smashed in the caufield then a super run against makybe.

elvstreom over 2000m? i think its fair to say that elv is rated higher then lad and makybe just about had him over 1600 and 1800m. we r now talking 2040. and regal over 1400m? not many better in modern time then him over that dist at that track and at those conditions.

if you feel so sure y dont u give me odds on makybe winning by 2???????? she in in the best condition shes been in and i believe she has barely pushed herself in this prep yet.

" when a horse makes up 16 lengths to grand armee, who was one of australias greatest horses over the dist she beat him in"

havent answered that.

I think she is a great chance to win just dont agree with a lot of your evidence or reasoning. Personally think foo might win again and just had a little nudge on studebaker at 200/1. Elvestrom does rate higher than lotm but dont get too carried away mate. She's no value @2/1. You'll get that on the day anyway.

This is in the response to the so called great ride by Greg Childs obviously he did alright cause Lad won the race but he lost position to FOO early on in the race when that horse went from being outside of him in the running to pulling back and going up inside of him and end up about 1 1/2 to 2 lengths in front of him. Coming to the turn Lad was posted about 4 maybe 5 wide at the 600 onwards with Makybe about 1 to 1 1/2 lengths behind him on the turn the margin was still similar until they straightened whne although you could see the Lad was ************ed he had opened to about a 2 1/2 length lead and managed to hang on for the win.

When comparing the 2 horses you are comparing 2 completely different type of horses Lad is one best ridden to take a bit of a position early and have one dart at them at the end where as Makybe always goes straight out the back and thunders home she doesn't know any other way. I amnot saying she can't win the race I just feel that at the odds she is right now which are extremely **** poor I could find better betting options. What is to say that these horses will even make it to the race nothing saying that either one of them can't get hurt and not even end up contesting the race it happens all the time which makes anything less than about 7-1 fort any horse I don't care who it is ridiculos.

Like I said I backed Lad at 13-1 and am glad I did his odds willnot be anywhere near that come the day of the race if he is there that is a gamble I felt was worth while at worst I think Makybe Diva ends up being an odds on shot and I doubt that happens so $3 isn't that great a value and I certainly would not consider it value under any circumstances.

she didnt just beat grand she smashed him. but i guess we will just wait and c. raw sed himself that lad was ************ed by the end and another 400m is a long way to go, especially wen at the point lad was ************ed makybe was just getting going. the only thing against makybe is the track but i feel she can overcome that. she will outsprint ne horse over a final 200m and that is evident as she came over the top of regal. odds are ridiculous but it only proves her worth. i have her at 3.20 and ill take it coz u may not see better. she may even hit that by the race if she runs the melb cup.

I will say one thing Bordi The Diva was gone at the 100 aswell if not she would have won the race I felt she had every chance to run the other 2 down nothing stopped her momentum at all and she wasn't put under pressure until after Lad of the Manor either.

perhaps u should read the article that freedman and boss spoke in that was posted on the tab website raw. they stated that makybe diva was just getting going at the 50m mark. lad was good enuff to get that extra kick, the kick that regal couldnt hold and many of the others. but 400m extra is one giant kick he will need.

I totally disagree Bordi I have watched the race about 12 times tonight alone and she was leveling out at the 100 reckon she was probably tuly gone at the 50 when I say she had every chance sure she had to put in a big run to get there but the horses up front had to sit on a very hot pace aswell FOO got the absolute run of the race and he was gone at the 125 and there are no doubts at all about his ability to run the 2040 around the valley. These 3 horses were all 2nd up and will all derive improvement from there perspective runs will be a matter of who improves the most from here on out either way I just hope it is a great race.

where do u watch these replays? is there a site u can download them from???

and i also think i would believe freedman n boss over you lol. but we all have our own opinions. as they also sed... she ran a soft and easy race n was not pushed by king against regal. thats saying something.

Mate because I have broadband I have access to the TVN site on line through bigpond which you have to be subscibed to aswell. I don't doubt what Freeman and Boss are saying but I would say in no way shape or form that she wasn't asked for an effort in either one of her races King was getting into her for all he was worth as he should have to it wasn't like he will ever get to ride her again.

I backed Lad of the Manor in the Cox Plate @ $26 a few hours before his first up win on NSW TAB. I was quite impressed with his performances last prep & his first attempts at WFA. If they put Johns back on though, it might cost them dearly.

I've also backed Binding @ $26 in the Caulfield Cup (looks a wasted bet now) @ $35 in the Cox. This horse has G1 wins in him imo, & I'm convinced he's a real stayer. Its obvious now Hawkes is aiming at the Epsom first, but hopefully he'll run in the Cox at least after that.

I wanted to back Vouvray in the Melbourne Cup on Saturday @ $15, but forgot to put my bet on before the Feehan. Stupid, stupid price now, so I missed the boat there.

I think that's the plan, and let's face it. One of the biggest races in Australia, who would you rather have your money on? Boss or Johns???

Yeah, I must admit I haven't really been a big Vouvray fan, but plenty of 'experts' are picking it, so I'm starting to look at it. At $15, it wasn't too bad I guess, but you'll probably be able to get $10 on the day, so I wouldn't touch that.

To be honest I love Vouvray as a Cups horse and I still wouldn't have taken the 15's about her she is very under appreciated by alot of punters and with a bit of luck some of the hype horses will be in there and jack the prices up for everything else.

I reckon she (VOUVRAY) will steal on of the drinking vessel races this year.
Should be a fair price too.

Caulfield Cup

1 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) (Lee Freedman) 7 m 58.0 [2.5] 02-Nov-2004 1st-G1-3200m Emirates-Melbourne Cup AUS
2= CHERRY MIX (FR) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 5 h 58.5 [0.5] 03-Oct-2004 2nd-G1-2400m Arc De Triomphe FR
2= NORSE DANCER (IRE) (David Elsworth) 6 h 58.5 [0.5] 23-Jul-2005 2nd-G1-2419m King George VI Stakes UK
4 BANDARI (IRE) (Mark Johnston) 7 h 58.0 wfa 18-Jun-2005 1st-G2-2400m Hardwicke Stakes UK
5 MUMMIFY (Lee Freedman) 6 g 57.0 1.0 15-May-2005 1st-G1-2000m SAI Cup SING
6= FIELDS OF OMAGH (David Hayes) 8 g 56.5 1.5 23-Oct-2004 2nd-G1-2040m W.S. Cox Plate AUS
6= GREYS INN (USA) (Mike de Kock) 5 h 56.5 1.5 24-Apr-2005 2nd-G1-2000m Queen Elizabeth II Cup HK
8= DIZELLE (John Hawkes) 4 m 51.5 2.5 30-Mar-2005 1st-G1-2400m AJC Oaks AUS
8= FIRST CHARTER (GB) (David Hayes) 6 g 55.5 2.5 18-Sep-2004 3rd-G1-2800m Irish St. Leger IRE
8= HOLLOW BULLET (John McArdle) 4 m 51.5 2.5 04-Nov-2004 1st-G1-2500m VRC Oaks AUS
8= PLASTERED (Lindsey Smith) 4 g 54.0 2.5 30-Oct-2004 1st-G1-2500m Victoria Derby AUS
8= SUPER KID (NZ) (John Moore) 6 g 55.5 2.5 30-May-2004 1st-$678,656-2400m Champions Chater Cup HK
8= XCELLENT (NZ) (Michael Moroney) 4 g 54.0 2.5 26-Dec-2004 1st-G1-2400m New Zealand Derby NZ
14 RAZKALLA (USA) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 8 g 55.0 3.0 26-Mar-2005 2nd-G1-2400m Dubai Sheema Classic UAE
15 FIGHT YOUR CORNER (GB) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 7 h 54.5 3.5 30-May-2005 1st-G2-3300m Henry II Stakes UK
16= DEMERGER (Danny O'Brien) 5 m 51.5 4.0 16-May-2005 1st-G1-3200m Adelaide Cup AUS
16= EYE POPPER (JPN) (Izumi Shimizu) 6 h 54.0 4.0 01-May-2005 3rd-$418,670-3200m Tenno Sho JPN
16= PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) (Neville McBurney) 5 m 51.5 4.0 13-Jun-2005 1st-G1-3200m Brisbane Cup AUS
16= SONGLARK (GB) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 6 g 54.0 4.0 19-Jun-2005 1st-LR-2400m Pontefract Castle Stakes UK
16= STELLA GRANDE (Lee Freedman) 4 g 52.5 4.0 26-Mar-2005 2nd-G1-2400m AJC Derby AUS
16= VOUVRAY (NZ) (Peter G Moody) 5 m 51.5 4.0 25-Jun-2004 1st-G1-2400m QLD Oaks AUS
16= WILD IRIS (Guy Walter) 5 m 51.5 4.0 14-Apr-2004 1st-G1-2400m AJC Oaks AUS
23= COUNT RICARDO (Stephen Theodore) 4 g 52.0 4.5 13-Nov-2004 1st-G2-2400m Sandown Classic AUS
23= ECONSUL (NZ) (Graeme Rogerson) 4 h 52.0 4.5 09-Oct-2004 1st-G1-1600m Caulfield Guineas AUS
23= IKE'S DREAM (John Hawkes) 5 m 51.0 4.5 18-Dec-2004 1st-G2-1600m Villiers Handicap AUS
23= IRISH DARLING (Tony Vasil) 4 m 49.5 4.5 07-May-2005 1st-G1-2031m Australasian Oaks AUS
23= PERLIN (NZ) (Graeme Rogerson) 6 g 53.5 4.5 28-May-2005 1st-G1-2200m Doomben Cup AUS
28= BATTLE MAIDEN (ZIM) (Grahame Begg) 6 m 50.5 5.0 03-Jul-2004 1st-G1-1600m Garden Province Stakes SAF
28= BAZELLE (NZ) (Paul Jenkins) 6 m 50.5 5.0 01-Jan-2005 1st-G1-3200m Auckland Cup NZ
28= CARTE DIAMOND (USA) (Brian Ellison) 5 h 53.0 5.0 06-Nov-2004 1st-$83,373-2400m November Stakes UK
28= DESERT WAR (Gai Waterhouse) 5 g 53.0 5.0 02-Oct-2004 1st-G1-1600m Epsom Handicap AUS
28= FANTASTIC LOVE (USA) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 6 h 53.0 5.0 06-Nov-2004 1st-G2-2500m Queen Elizabeth Stakes AUS
28= LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) (John Morrisey) 4 g 51.5 5.0 11-Jun-2005 1st-G1-2400m Queensland Derby AUS
28= MAHTOUM (Kim Waugh) 6 g 53.0 5.0 02-Apr-2005 1st-G1-3200m Sydney Cup AUS
28= NATURAL BLITZ (Doug Harrison) 6 h 53.0 5.0 04-Jun-2005 1st-G2-2400m O'Shea Stakes AUS
28= NEVIS (NZ) (David Payne) 4 m 49.0 5.0 03-Sep-2005 1st-G2-1600m Chelmsford Stakes AUS
28= SIR DEX (Gregory Hickman) 5 g 53.0 5.0 14-May-2005 1st-G2-2400m Prime Ministers Cup AUS


Melbourne Cup
1 MAKYBE DIVA (GB) (Lee Freedman) 7 m 58.0 [+2.0] $9,044,910 02-Nov-2004 1st-G1-3200m Emirates-Melbourne Cup AUS
2 WESTERNER (GB) (Elie Lellouche) 7 h 58.5 wfa $1,728,975 16-Jun-2005 1st-G1-4000m Ascot Gold Cup UK
3 CHERRY MIX (FR) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 5 h 58.5 wfa $898,643 03-Oct-2004 2nd-G1-2400m Arc De Triomphe FR
4 VINNIE ROE (IRE) 8H (Dermot Weld) 8 h 58.0 0.5 $1,660,209 02-Sep-2004 1st-G1-2800m Irish St. Leger IRE
5 BANDARI (IRE) (Mark Johnston) 7 h 58.0 0.5 $612,785 18-Jun-2005 1st-G2-2400m Hardwicke Stakes UK
6 YEATS (IRE) (Aidan O'Brien) 5 h 57.5 1.0 $631,742 03-Jun-2005 1st-G1-2400m Coronation Cup UK
7 MUMMIFY (Lee Freedman) 6 g 57.0 1.5 $4,184,020 17-Apr-2004 3rd-G1-3200m Sydney Cup AUS
8 GREYS INN (USA) (Mike de Kock) 5 h 56.5 2.0 $1,149,893 08-May-2004 1st-G2-2450m S A Derby SAF
9 DISTINCTION (IRE) (Michael Stoute) 7 g 56.5 2.0 $456,511 28-Jul-2005 1st-G2-3200m Lady O Goodwood Cup UK
10 SWEET STREAM (ITY) (John Hammond) 6 m 53.5 2.5 $723,622 12-Sep-2004 1st-G1-2400m Prix Vermeille Fouquet FR
11 SUPER KID (NZ) (John Moore) 6 g 55.5 3.0 $2,512,133 30-May-2004 1st-$678,656-2400m Champions Chater Cup HK
12 PLASTERED (Lindsey Smith) 4 g 54.0 3.0 $1,453,840 30-Oct-2004 1st-G1-2500m Victoria Derby AUS
13 HOLLOW BULLET (John McArdle) 4 m 51.5 3.0 $1,386,802 04-Nov-2004 1st-G1-2500m VRC Oaks AUS
14 DIZELLE (John Hawkes) 4 m 51.5 3.0 $688,040 30-Mar-2005 1st-G1-2400m AJC Oaks AUS
15 XCELLENT (NZ) (Michael Moroney) 4 g 54.0 3.0 $434,934 26-Dec-2004 1st-G1-2400m New Zealand Derby NZ
16 FIRST CHARTER (GB) (David Hayes) 6 g 55.5 3.0 $314,628 18-Sep-2004 3rd-G1-2800m Irish St. Leger IRE
17 RAZKALLA (USA) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 8 g 55.0 3.5 $992,916 26-Mar-2005 2nd-G1-2400m Dubai Sheema Classic UAE
18 SIMONAS (IRE) (Andreas Wohler) 7 h 55.0 3.5 $885,422 24-Oct-2004 2nd-G1-2400m Canadian International CAN
19 COLLIER HILL (GB) (Alan Swinbank) 8 h 55.0 3.5 $666,587 01-May-2005 1st-G2-2400m Gerling-Preis GER
20 FRANKLINS GARDENS (GB) (Mark Tompkins) 6 h 54.5 4.0 $280,559 13-May-2005 1st-G2-2800m Yorkshire Cup UK
21 FIGHT YOUR CORNER (GB) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 7 h 54.5 4.0 $267,958 30-May-2005 1st-G2-3300m Henry II Stakes UK
22 EYE POPPER (JPN) (Izumi Shimizu) 6 h 54.0 4.5 $2,197,945 01-May-2005 3rd-$418,670-3200m Tenno Sho JPN
23 PORTLAND SINGA (NZ) (Neville McBurney) 5 m 51.5 4.5 $774,700 13-Jun-2005 1st-G1-3200m Brisbane Cup AUS
24 VOUVRAY (NZ) (Peter G Moody) 5 m 51.5 4.5 $732,418 19-Mar-2005 3rd-G1-2400m Tancred Stakes AUS
25 DEMERGER (Danny O'Brien) 5 m 51.5 4.5 $674,000 16-May-2005 1st-G1-3200m Adelaide Cup AUS
26 STELLA GRANDE (Lee Freedman) 4 g 52.5 4.5 $604,175 26-Mar-2005 2nd-G1-2400m AJC Derby AUS
27 WILD IRIS (Guy Walter) 5 m 51.5 4.5 $585,460 14-Apr-2004 1st-G1-2400m AJC Oaks AUS
28 OSTANKINO (FR) (Elie Lellouche) 5 h 54.0 4.5 $395,710 10-Jul-2005 1st-G2-2800m Prix Maurice de Nieuil FR

VOUVRAY, VINNIE ROE. THE YEAR OF THE VEEEES!!!!!!

Vouvray

I would be happy to be proven wrong Luv2bet but I think Vinnie might just have had his chance last year geez that won cost me my biggest bet ever I have never been more confident even more so when all that rain came a tumbling.

Hope you guys can share with me info on Vouvray.
He has never race above 2400 before. Only won once out of 3 at 2400 and that was last year June at Eagle Farm.

Any opinion on Free at Last.
Like his run in Craiglee last up.

Matilda, VOUVRAY ran a slashing 4th in the CC last year and Peter Moody the trainer put her away after that with a view to this years cups. To give her time to mature. She won a Qld oaks over 2400m, which is a Group 1.
It looks like P Moody may have been right, as she seems to have come back better than ever.
Don't know a great deal about the other one sorry.