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CRASH'S PLACE PLACE
Boy, everyone knows here I am a win only man mostly. However, I'm a bit intrigued by efforts to bet the place and make a profit. Not so easy considering the SR required to beat the place due to odds paid.
Obviously the best place [no pun intended] to look is at the reasonable shorties as they seem to pay up to 50+% of the win price often enough to maybe make a go of it.I came up with a little bit of a system as guidance plus a bit of race reading, so lets see how we go for awhile. Concentrates on 1st to 4th PP favorites. Maximizing odds is definitely the go, so AIS is my preferred bet site [anyone know a better one for place bets?]. The system guidence is: I ignore all maidens, 2yr. olds, Cups, Stakes and Special event races and below C2. Distances between 1100m and 2050m on good tracks only [PP is for good tracks only]. First and second uppers are ignored as are 57+kg. carriers except on Sat. [57 1/2 kg. is OK] after claims. Everything else is race reading with a 'yes' or 'no' bet. Today I had 4 selections. 2 of them have already run with 2 to go in WA. Place only- Albury: R5/6 Paint box [unp] R8/7 Coolroom Candidate [W$4/$2 STAB and $2.07 AIS where I placed my bets]. York: R6/4 Under Attack R7/7 Old Value Outlay 4 units. |
Place only-
Albury: R5/6 Paint box [unp] R8/7 Coolroom Candidate [W$4/$2 STAB and $2.07 AIS where I placed my bets]. York: R6/4 Under Attack [2nd $1.43 IAS and $1.30 STAB] R7/7 Old Value [unp]. Outlay 4 units. Return AIS 3.5 units. Loss 0.5 units. 3 out of 4 to make a profit is a hard ask. Paint box started 2nd. fav. and Old Value Fav. Both had good Jocks. See what tomorrow turns up. |
Unlucky today crash.
You need to find some value runners rather than try to tip 75%. If you can get all your runners paying $2.00+ you only need to hit half of them. Good Luck Tommorrow. |
I had a big place only bet yesterday in Prince Rhubarb looking it had decent form and was meeting a field of only 8 hurdlers, got $2.25 with surebet and was just hoping that it would get run down in the straight, it did and that made me very happy, as there is nothing worse then betting place and it gets up and wins, other then running fourth that is.
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Crash,
My "turf" here (so to speak) as you know I have been heavily into place betting for a few years now (apart from my spell away) What I really want is BEST of 3 totes, I'm told it is available but I can only find it for the win NOT place only. My compromise is to back Half of the stake @ best of 2 totes (i.e. S/Tab + NSW TAB) and the other half @ Unitab, so at least I always have a taste of the best price. My S/R is still hovering around the 75% mark. Interesting though, my stakes have been spread around a bit so far (deliberately) so am more than a bit concerned about that OTHER thread regarding winning accounts being closed. |
Thanks punters for the input.
This place business really is an interesting exercise. Yesterday was my second go at it. The day before I had about 15 bets and broke even. If I had left the 'Newmarket' alone and the race before and after it [loss bets]. I would have made money. I was using a straight system approach. Something I made up that does produce a high SR but mostly too many bets [yesterday was an exception]. PLACE THE RULE-FITTING FAVORITE SYSTEM Any day except Sunday or night and public holiday meetings. Ignore below class C2 races. Cups, Hurdles, 2yr olds and Stakes races. Distances 1100m to 2050m only and in Good conditions only. 1, select the PP favorite. 2. must not be first or second up unless it has a very good record for 1st and 2nd up. 3. must not be carrying more than 57kg. after allowances. 57 1/2 kg. for Sat. Metro. 4.must be in barrier 9 or less except on big tracks. 5 must have raced within the last 21 days. 6 if the PP favorite fits the above it's a Place bet. 7 if the favorite doesn't fit the rules move on to the second favorite etc. 8 if more than 1 horse is on the 2nd fav. line, the lower TAB No. is 2nd. etc. 9 Ignore the race if one of the first 4 PP favorites doesn't fit the rules. 10.Do not back females against males [unless her name starts with Macka:-)] On Wednesday this produced too many bets. I back-fitted it over about 100 races from races with the PP odds I'd copied and pasted from the WAtab site [trying to build a PP databank but it's a bit of a drudge putting in all the results at the end of the day]. A very high SR of about 85% was achieved. SA last Sat. was 8 out of 8. Melb. lost [on every Stakes race]. NSW [lost on the stakes except 1] and Qld both won. I think the go is a bit of race reading and not too many bets. A few big bets is always better than small bets and lots of them [win or place]. The system needs another rule to reduce bets [last start 16 days?] or race reading anyway. Trying for $2+ odds gets into rocky ground. A place of $2.50 is often from a runner paying up to $15 for the win ! The $2 to $6 SP [they pay up to $3.50 the place] to win seems to be the best ground to find place bets with value I think [longer odds are too heavily backed for the place and $15 SP is often paying only $2.50/$3 P], but I'm not sitting in front of a monitor all day so I go on the PP odds only. AIS pays better than 2 Tabs [only]. Trap there is that often the 3rd TAB price is often better!! |
Well I'll I'll see how these go today. They are all the horses by the rules above.
I'll have a look at their form and decide which is a bet or not for myself personaly. Maybe all of them, maybe not. But for interest sake I've put them all in. Albury. R4/4 KING OF ILLAWARRA R6/7 PRETTIFY R8/1 DOWER [NZ] Port Macquire [DEAD] Rockhampton R2/5 RAINBOW DANCER R8/3 PEDREE Sale R7/3 OUR RAPHAEL R8/2 TWELVE OAKS |
Crash, try this one: must have a win in exposed form UNLESS 1st up over 1200m OR LESS, also no 3kg claimers, that usually sorts em out!!
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The win in exposed form is a good one Party. But jeez, there are a few good claimers around. Keen as mustard these kids. I do rule out 4kg. claimers though !
Sale R7/3 certainly deserves some more place dosh on it. Heck, I might even take it 1x6 each way ! Albury R8/1 might get a few more place pennies on it [has a claimer too]. They all look reasonable place bets after a look at the form. |
AIS Prices.
Albury. R4/4 KING OF ILLAWARRA [unp] R6/7 PRETTIFY [$2.06p] R8/1 DOWER [NZ] [unp F] Port Macquire [DEAD] Rockhampton R2/5 RAINBOW DANCER [$1.64p] R8/3 PEDREE [$3.33p]. $4.30 STAB ! Sale R7/3 OUR RAPHAEL [$1.63p] R8/2 TWELVE OAKS [$1.43p] Outlay 7 units. Returm 10.9 Profit 3.9 units |
I've put most races in but the ones marked * are stakes races [only 1 out of 7 placed last week].
I haven't looked at days since last ran so the list can be reduced further if you like [ For Saturdays I'm changing the Days since last start rule to 7 or 14 days to improve fitness and to make sure it was a Sat runner last start]. I'm also using a bit of race reading so the rules are bendable a bit for my selections. No point in just putting down only the exact system tips. Anyone can do that themselves but I would keep the barrier and 16 days since last start rules in if you do. The rules are guide only for me especially on Sat. I chuck in some handicapping. ROSEHILL R1/4*, R2/3*, R3/2*, R4/4* R5/4*, R6/2*,R9/9* R7/10 Prisoner of Love R9/9 Picket Fence DOOMBEN R1/5 Saints Glory R4/4 Leica Launch R5/7 Any Suggestion R6/2 Massai Pride R7/5 Video hits R8/8 Myndos MOONEE VALLEY [barriers are important here for a lot of horses. Also some just don't like this track] R1/4 Swinging Babe R3/2 Final Express R4/4 Miss Lyrebird R5/4 De Capo [Zipping should easily win this but looking for a bit better place odds] R6/4 Emerald Jack R7/3 Fullazz R8/9 Millie Rose MORPHETVILLE [trick track. Inside draw very important at almost any distance, except for VERY strong back markers] 3/2 Finness Sea [strong back marker with a bit of class edge on this lot and might beat Wildlife Girl the Fav. and win this]. R4/6 Solitas [If he jumps cleanly he might win this. Has trouble at the gate but the much better jock might help here] R7/12 The Hammer R8/7 Brocco and Ice We'll see how this little lot goes :-) |
Dump the Rosehill bets ....a SLOW track !!!
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DOOMBEN is 'dead'. Revised bets if anyone interested in Brisb.
R4/4 Leica Launch R5/7 Any Suggestion R7/5 Video hits R4 Melb. Original selection scratched. Replacement is No.2 Hillfa |
I did not include rain affected tracks in my own bets [would have been a bad betting move after just checking results, especially the stakes races in Syd.]
I supplied the info for those interested only. Wet tracks and PP odds just don't go together. MORPHETVILLE 3/2 Finness Sea [w $9.41 / p$2.37] R4/6 Solitas [p $3.22] R7/12 The Hammer R8/7 Brocco and Ice MOONEE VALLEY R1/4 Swinging Babe R3/2 Final Express R4/ 2 Hillfa R5/4 De Capo [p$2.17] R6/4 Emerald Jack R7/3 Fullazz [w $10.95 / p$3.03] R8/9 Millie Rose Moonee Valley proved very tough. Some close 4ths. all over the meetings. I did take Finness Sea and Solitas e/w though but not Fullazz, so not a bad day [wins not included in totals]. Outlay today place 11 units. Return 10.79 units. Loss 0.21 Overall outlay 22 units. Return 25.19. Profit 3.19 units. Can have a lot of fun with this method and not do much damage it seems. I'll wring a profit out of this I think with a bit more experience. |
These are just straight handicapped place bets as it's a system rest day.
Cranbourne R5/1 Itsamonty R7/1 Palias R9/7 Governor Macquarie R10/7 Generals Command [might be worth an e/w bet]. |
Should have left Sunday a rest day:-)
R5/1 Itsamonty [p$1.63] R7/1 Palias R9/7 Governor Macquarie R10/7 Generals Command [Lost by a nostril. p$1.53]. Won 3.16 units. Loss 0.74 |
After going over about 100pp race results again. I'm ignoring the weight rule and first up rule but keeping the no second up rule. If the PP fav. doesn't fit I ignore the race. Moving to the 2, 3rd, or 4th. fav. for a fit looked good, but in practice isn't.
Only 'good' track meeting from the 2 today is: MON. 27TH. TATURA R5/1 GENERAL MACKJOSH R6/2 SHERBORNE R7/5 CHIMINERA R8/6 DONE AND DUSTED |
MON. 27TH. TATURA
R5/1 GENERAL MACKJOSH [w $1.96/ p$1.11] R6/2 SHERBORNE[unp] This is the one I would have left out. 3 tries at this distance for zero. I just wanted to go back and stick to some set rules and take things from there so I left him in]. R7/5 CHIMINERA [p$1.21] R8/6 DONE AND DUSTED [p$1.64] Total return 3.96 units. Crap odds today for a loss of 0.04. We'll improve on that I think and start making money soon, rather than treading water. |
Only one 'good' track today.
TOWNSVILLE R2/1 ZIPSNIP R7/7 DANCING NIGHT The R3 selection has been removed at 11.50am. [r3 only has 6 runners]. |
For those who picked up the scrubbed tip, you did well.
------------------------------------------------------------------------ BR3 RACE 3 HANSON BRICKWORK CLASS 6 1630m 12:13pm [PP prices yesterday morning] 1 2041 EAGLE REIGN ta 3 B YOUNG 58.5 $2.80 * 2 8x64 SETO STAR td 1 N DAY 58.5 $3.00 3 6425 STRIDERITE t 6 A COX 58.5 $3.80 4 7353 GIVE AND TELL 4 MS T BANNON 57 $8.00 5 1472 POWER OF NOW tcm 2 I TOWARD 55.5 $4.20 6 4321 WINAQUA c 5 D GREEN 52.5 $7.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Eagle Reign was obviously unwanted [weight?] and won paying: IAS [w$11.11/p3.32]. R2/1 ZIPSNIP [w$2.27/p1.40] R7/7 DANCING NIGHT [unp] Loss today 0.6 units. Overall Outlay 32 units. Return 33.38. Profit 1.38 units. Needs a bit of a lift. |
No pp odds for Devonport except R2 and no pp odds Ipswiich.
DEVONPORT R2 AT ST. GEORGE GEELONG R6/6 CONISTON GEM R7/1 FEARLESS WATERS* R8/5 STRADDLES* *Might be worth a win bet too. |
Better late than never:
DEVONPORT R6/2 SAHARA STAR R8/1 ACTIONPACKJACKSON IPSWICH R4/4 DANERIDGE R5/2 COMANACA R6/1 SWEET RANSOM R7/1 DISCOINTICA |
Overall Outlay 32 units. Return 33.38. Profit 1.38 units. Needs a bit of a lift
Crash, that's 4.31% POT, and would be considered by a lot of "clever people" as VERY GOOD!! i.e. 1000 bets a year of $2000 = $2,000,000 x 4.31%= 86 grand not bad.......... |
Thanks for the votes Party :-)
Not a good result today. I should have included Ipswich R1 and R2, both winners. DEVONPORT R2 AT ST. GEORGE R6/2 SAHARA STAR [w$6.50/p$2.80] R8/1 ACTIONPACKJACKSON GEELONG R6/6 CONISTON GEM [w$4.50/p$1.90] R7/1 FEARLESS WATERS* R8/5 STRADDLES* IPSWICH R4/4 DANERIDGE R5/2 COMANACA [p$1.42] R6/1 SWEET RANSOM R7/1 DISCOINTICA w11units. Return on p = 5.12 units. Loss on place 4.88 units. Starting to look good as a win system perhaps[?]. Anyway, it's wide open until I work out some rules that will increase the place SR for sure, not what I think will work. |
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Gday Crash the removal of a selection for the place because of 6 runners intrigues me.. Why is it not a bet... they pay a win and 2 places for a 6 horse field.. Isn't the dividend better when only paying two place divvies? The pool is divided by 2 instead of 3?.. This is a genuine question, coz I see lotsa people flick 7 and 6 horse fields, but to me that doesnt make lotsa sense.. To my way of thinking if you find a place getter in these circumstances the rewards are higher... |
Crash, Here's a place system that might be worthwile, I have been working on it for a while, and opened a seperate TAB account to run it on small bets to see how it goes, will keep you updated.
NO form odds only.
Cheers. |
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Yep, Yep. Yep XP, I [now] totally agree with all you are saying and am going to include these small field races. Thanks. |
Hi Kenchar,
Good results but what is the actual system ["Here's a place system that might be worthwhile"] your recommending, or are you just posting results? Cheers, Crash |
I have now adjusted the rules but as always they are a guide.
Considering the amount of races on Sat. I'm thinking of adding: Must have a win or place in one of the runners last 2 starts or perhaps a min. place SR [?] PLACE THE RULE-FITTING FAVORITE SYSTEM Any day except Sunday or night and public holiday meetings. Ignore Cups, Hurdles, Maidens, 2yr olds and Stakes races. Distances: any to 2050m only and in 'good' conditions only. 1. select the PP favorite. 2. must not be second up. 3. Ignore horse over 6 yrs. 5. must have raced within the last 18 days. 6. do not back females against males [unless her name starts with Macka:-)] 7. must have at least placed at the distance [or within 50m from it] 9. if the PP favorite fits the above it's a Place bet. 10.if the favorite doesn't fit the rules move on to the second favorite etc. 11.if more than 1 horse is on the 2nd fav. line, the lower TAB No. is 2nd. etc. 12.ignore the race if one of the first 4 PP favorites doesn't fit the rules. Interestingly I tried out the basic system last Monday night for awhile on the Greyhounds for something to do. AIS: GREYS GO WILD COSMO ANGLE PARK Race 11 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 37.00 W 27/03/2006 8:30:50 PM 340200D10A-2464449 GREYS BLACK FANTASY WENTWORTH PK Race 8 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD -50.00 L 27/03/2006 8:29:07 PM B402002191-2464435 GREYS RUBBER SOUL ALBION PARK Race 7 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 26.50 W 27/03/2006 8:27:34 PM 720200A29A-2464410 GREYS BRANDEEN NICK ANGLE PARK Race 10 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 10.50 W 27/03/2006 8:14:55 PM DAF10881E3-2464226 GREYS OUR BETTE WENTWORTH PK Race 7 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 31.50 W 27/03/2006 8:13:05 PM FAF10840EB-2464198 GREYS POSSUM JENKINS ALBION PARK Race 6 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 25.00 W 27/03/2006 8:03:08 PM 66F1005088-2464077 GREYS COBALT IZMIR ANGLE PARK Race 9 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 63.50 W 27/03/2006 8:02:04 PM D4F1005371-2464069 GREYS DOLLY MINT WENTWORTH PK Race 6 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 20.70 W 27/03/2006 7:56:58 PM 92F100A2E2-2464003 GREYS BITA CRAZY ALBION PARK Race 5 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 48.00 W 27/03/2006 7:47:08 PM 8EE1089202-2463871 GREYS BLACK REWARD ANGLE PARK Race 8 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 16.00 W 27/03/2006 7:45:07 PM 1EE108F002-2463850 GREYS FAITHFUL LOVE WENTWORTH PK Race 5 50.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 32.00 W 27/03/2006 7:28:07 PM 16E10083A5-2463681 GREYS ELITE LILLY WENTWORTH PK Race 4 70.00 IAS-SP Place AUD 30.00 W 27/03/2006 7:06:46 PM 40E100639E-2463503 GREYS ELVIS WENTWORTH PK Race 3 60.00 IAS-SP Place AUD -60.00 L A lucky night I think as I noted the bets for Tuesday Greyhounds for a few tracks but didn't bet them. I would have lost badly:-) Maybe Mobnday nights is the way to go[?] |
Crash,
Excellent results, but my own belief after a few years betting place is that you have to work to a minimum price of $2, if you want long term profitability. Those prices you have there are fine IF you can continue the strike rate, but as we all know it is racing after all and we all know what happens. Cheers |
Crash, what's good about this idea is HEAPS of action, so even if only a tiny profit can be made there's no problem at all getting to a decent turnover without placing very large bets on a few horses (which obviously can affect the divies)
My place plan only gives 5 bets a week on average so it has that built in weakness, another point is that if I miss a bet (has happened) it can be a disaster, whereas with smaller bets it doesn't matter (as much) Anyway keep it up, for that streak!! hahah! |
What got me Party was listening to about 4 or 5 of those greys win in a row !
About 7 winners overall !! Hard to take for a win man having place bets. The actions the thing. Safe and potential small profit [or loss]. I like to handicap my own choice horse races to win. I don't have many bets. Maybe 1 or 2 a day except for up to 5 on Sat. This place thing give me some action during the week. It's quiet out here in a small town [thank god the tourists have gone back to the city with their noisy power boats and jetskis after the School hols]. This place stuff is cheap pleasure although I'm naturally working on it to be profitable in it's own right. Kenchar I know what you mean. Problem I see is $2 to $3 place quickly gets you out to backing horse for the place outside the top 5 a lot. Where most place money is bet for the place. So small divvies for horses $6 to $15 SP. $2.50p for a $12 SP horse is common. SR in that price range becomes a lot harder and will be correspondingly lower. Serious handicapping, not a system would be required and at that stage. I would be thinking, stuff the place I can handicap for the win at much better odds and better profitability. You are probably on the screen watching prices and opportunities. That is the only way to chase $2 average prices for the win. I just haven't the time or inclination to bet like that. That's the problem for me and anyone else who can't, or doesn't want to watch last min. odds before betting. Of course, some people enjoy that type of punting and I'm not suprised it's more profitable than what I'm doing here. Cheers. THURSDAY 30TH MARCH TOOWOOMBA R4/1 OUT ON BAIL R5/4 ANABASCA R6/1 WHAT A TALE R8/ BIG KEA CRANBOURNE R5/1 MITEMAN R6/ CAPE BELLE R7/3 CONCLAVE R8/4 DIRTY DENIM GOSFORD R1/1 SUPER SWEEP R2/1 BEDCLOTHS R7/4 SOMTHIN LIKA JEM R8//5 GYPSY JEM |
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Crash, What you have quoted is so true except the divies, you do NOT have to go past the 4th fav in any bettable race, BUT you do have to be watching the screen constantly. It's the only way I know to bet and if I was made to bet any other way I would be back in the workforce super quick. Today another good day but got caught short with a couple after the jump when they crashed (no pun intended)
Cheers |
Kenchar,
I know where your coming from. When I look up results I see many selections I would just not back from the pp list. Today has been a good example [one 2 go before I post results]. Some winners but overall loss. Still, cheap thrills. |
THURSDAY 30TH MARCH
TOOWOOMBA R4/1 OUT ON BAIL R5/4 ANABASCA R6/1 WHAT A TALE [$2.05] R8/ BIG KEA CRANBOURNE R5/1 MITEMAN [$2.37] R6/ CAPE BELLE R7/3 CONCLAVE R8/4 DIRTY DENIM[$1.96] GOSFORD R1/1 SUPER SWEEP [NTD] R2/1 BEDCLOTHS [w$2.15 p$1.32] R7/4 SOMETHIN LIKA JEM R8//5 GYPSY JEM Outlay 12 units Return 7.7 Loss 4.3 Tomorrow I'm going to handicap some [few] selection and try and get on top of this place scene. This is boring. No system is going to do it it seems. Still. lots of fun without too much loss exposure in a quick system approach. |
Friday 31st March [HANDICAPPED SELECTIONS]
EAGLE FARM R6/4 HANDY RED R7/2 ANABRASCO R8/1 EPSON RACES R9/3 LEARNED LEO SANDOWN R3/4 PINSEMONT R4/2 JUGGLE THE BOOKS R5/5 VALKYIE DIVA GOLBOURN R5/4 BAZAARS R7/1 THE SLAM Check track cond't. Good tracks only. |
EAGLEFARM
R7/2 ANABRASCO R8/1 EPSON RACES BOTH HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED. Below is what the system picked [no bets just interest] in the above races where they differ from mine. I'll be able to see if the system beats my [quick] handicapping effort. I have replaced my scratchings with the 2 picks below from the system for betting purposes. EAGLE FARM R6/3 MR BAARDOT R7/1 ALEGRO SPIRITOSO R8/3 SUN SPINNER R9/2 RACE TRACK SANDOWN R5/1 MERRY DRINKER GOLBOURN R7/2 THERE IS NO DOUBT ALL GOOD TRACKS TODAY. |
Friday 31st March [HANDICAPPED SELECTIONS]
EAGLE FARM R6/4 HANDY RED [$2.48] R7/1 ALEGRO SPIRITOSO [W$3.14 P$1.64] R8/3 SUN SPINNER [$2.18] R9/3 LEARNED LEO [$1.64] SANDOWN R3/4 PINSEMONT [W$1.64 P$1.21] R4/2 JUGGLE THE BOOKS [W$1.95 P$1.11] R5/5 VALKYIE DIVA [$2.06] GOULBOURN R5/4 BAZAARS R7/1 THE SLAM [W$13.35 P$4.04] OUTLAY 9 UNITS. RETURN 16.36 UNITS. BEST DAY SO FAR. [OH BOY, I WOULD HAVE LIKED THE WIN BET [LOVE THAT LINDA MEECH ON THE SLAM !]. SYSTEM SELECTIONS EAGLE FARM R6/3 MR BAARDOT [$2.72] R7/1 ALEGRO SPIRITOSO [W$3.14 P$1.64] R8/3 SUN SPINNER [$2.18] R9/2 RACE TRACK SANDOWN R5/1 MERRY DRINKER GOULBOURN R7/2 THERE IS NO DOUBT OUTLAY 6 UNITS. RETURN 5.56. LOSS O.04 UNITS TIME TO CHUCK THE SYSTEM AND HANDICAP SELECTIONS INSTEAD? |
Today [sat] will be handicapped selections only.
By dropping the system selection method I should see a much better return. So far there has been a total O/L of 76 units for a return of 80.6. Profit 4.68 |
CAULFIELD ['DEAD', BUT I HAVE HADICAPPED FOR DEAD THIS TRACK]
R2/3 CHARMED LADY R4/3 ANNA'S CHOICE R5/2 KELTHORPE R7/9 MADISON LANE R8/5 CORRECT AMOONDO PERTH R4/8 IS AMAZING CHELTENHAM R3/3 EXALTED MADAM R4/4 HEADLAND R5/2 FAXED R6/4 DAME SEVEN R7/9 OBGLO DOOMBEN ['DEAD', BUT I HAVE HADICAPPED FOR DEAD THIS TRACK] R2/3 WESLEY MANOR BENDIGO R7/11 COSTA MARBELLA |
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