Interesting email
 

I received an email from a tipster the other day and thought it appropriate to make comment on the contents as I can prove the hypothesis within incorrect...


The figures tell a different story.
Steamers win far more races than drifters.
While it is correct that you can lose money by not getting the best odds available on a steamer, this is also true with any horse. Continuing to bet into high percentage markets, means poor value, whether the horse steams or drifts. Betting into low percentage markets, means better value.

It is also true that there are various reasons why a horse's price can tumble in the market, but overall the price tumble reflects statistically to be a very good indicator of it's chances.

Did anyone observe the price tumble yesterday from $51.00 to $3.00 something????

Even in smaller markets, the same is true, providing that movement is reflected generally throughout various betting establishments.
I have followed the money on South Africa's race meets, where there is quite small liquidity, with a fair bit of accuracy and success.



Of course there is a clear advantage to be at the top of the movement, but there is also very little likelihood of that happening, unless punters have some inside knowledge.
The only sucker bet is the poor value bet.
A horse can be value even though it's price has shortened, a horse can be very poor value even though it's price is long.
Going against the herd is not recommended, unless you have better information, or a handicapping technique which identifies different horses successfully.
The writer should have concentrated on the importance of getting the best return on investment from steamers, rather than avoiding them altogether.

By avoiding them, he is suggesting you shoot the goose that lays the golden eggs!!!

The proof....

I have layed 80 drifters in the last three racing days for a profit of 14.67 units
I have backed 82 steamers in the last three days for a profit of 37.15 units

Had I backed the drifters instead of laying them I would have outlaid 80 units for a return of $64.33 - a loss of 15.67 units.

Had I layed the steamers, I would have lost close to 36 units.

I noticed that yesterday, i think it was Dawn something, the first at Eagle farm. IAS opened it at 51.00 and it had come in to 6.00. I got on through betfair at 9.90, and it did come in further to around 3.00. I did OK out of it but somebody must have made a killing.

CP,

Good post. I would be interested to see the longer term results as I believe you are correct in your hypothesis.

Good Luck.

wesmip1,

The longer terms figures are extremely similar, I only picked the last three days as I had the spreadsheet open for the days betting.
Of course, if you get the worst price about any of them (TAB), then you struggle.

Interesting stuff. Has anyone got any verifiable actual figures, or is the 'proof' here personal opinion or hearsay? I have read that 'actually, more drifters than shortener's win more races' [I have no proof either].

It isn't going to pan out every time though, like today I lost 5.56 units, however, the trend is there and for every day like today, there are two more very positive days. I think it's probably a case of some punters having a bad day and abandoning it. The figures over the last 56,000 races are showing in excess of 20% POT.

crash, we must have posted at the exact same moment as I didn't see your reply, sorry.

More shorteners win more races than drifters by more than twice as much.

I have gone through 56,000 instances on all tracks, however, the bigger pools have more accurate a reflection and impact.
Over those 56,000 races backing the shorteners on Betfair and laying the drifters, has returned more than 20% POT at Betfair prices.
I've been doing a revised method of it this year only, with slightly better returns.
For example, my maximum lay price is $5.00 and no more.

EDITED: I mean the bookie shorteners, and backing them or laying them on Betfair, not necessarily Betfair shorteners.

Wouldn't it hold that a shortener (by definition) win's more races than a drifter i.e. in many cases it probably starts at shorter odds ;)

No it wouldn't mean that at all or odds-on favorites would have a better SR than 50% [explain that one], which they don't. I'm yet to see verifiable [TAB] figures that prove one or the other about drifters or shortener's.

Personally I hold no opinion either way as like I've said, we are dealing with hearsay, not checkable and viewable facts.

Crash, the TAB figures really don't mean much, because the market movements come from correction or late "flurry" rather than informed judgement, the other problem is that you don't know until the pool closes.

The facts are checkable, if you wish to put in the time.

It makes me wonder why people will believe drifters win, yet need proof of firmers being more dominant. why believe one fact without proof, yet need proof for another.

Anyone wanting to do the exercise will find the same as I found, I have no reason to post innaccurate information, as it's all checkable.

Chrome,

No mate, you sprooking assumptions based on what you 'feel' is logical. One thing I have learned in this game is that racing 'logic' [most punters follow it] often leads to the poor house.

Someone puts a big bet on and all the wallies [those following the 'smart' money :-) ] jump on board taking whacking big unders and we all know that taking unders leads to the Salvo's ...... Shortener's = [inevitably] Underlays!

The golden rule is : VALUE and most shortener's by their very nature, don't fit that bill.

Opening prices and final prices would be required to prove anything about drifters and firmers.

Crash,

With all due respect, you seem to be following the tone of the email that was sent to me, that I have proven to be false by making in excess of 20% by doing the exact reverse for almost four months. Apart from the months I have been doing it, I researched 56,000 races - not TAB data but actual bookmakers fluctuations before I even contemplated betting.

It's not based on an assumption, nor on a gut feel, but facts from the track.

If you look at tote fluctuations, that's pretty useless and you do get the worst prices overall.

I pose this question...if there is no value in backing the shorteners, how is it I'm making a profit doing just that. I'm not the only one doing it either. The main difference I'm not getting underlays is because I'm getting close to the best price on those shorteners.

Those "wallies" do not bet on the tote, they bet where the value is, so that process alone belies the fact they are wallies.

Stable money rarely goes on the tote - it goes on the bookies.

For the record I recorded opening price, first fluctuation, second fluctuation and final price of bookies markets - not tote markets.

All that aside, I'm not trying to convert anyone, just pointing out that the email I was sent was not accurate according to my Betfair balance ;)

You'd need to test it by comparing the strike rate of firmers and drifters that start at the same price. As an example, do starters that firm from 6/1 into 4/1 win any more races than starters that drift from 2/1 out to 4/1?

I also have no bias either way but do know from experience that when the big firm is on, that's the lay bet I want to stay out of.

AngryPixie,

That's actually how I started my investigation.
I kept getting beaten on my lay bets when a firm move was made. This happened on a regular basis and according to my records I couldn't ignore the hard facts any longer.

I lost all of yesterdays profits in two lays that went bad today. They were absolute last second big firmers. Private info still rules! :(

With all due respect Chrome,

I'd love a $1 for every punting fact/fallacy based on a punters 'personal' experience/betting records/whatever. Your falling into the same trap as the em writer, as I bet his assertions/facts are based on exactly the same 'proof' your basing yours on, which makes his/her claims just as valuable.

Like I said earlier about drifters and shortener's, I have no opinion either way but I do know that my wins are mostly drifters as that's where the value is as far as I'm concerned. Whether they win more races or less races than shortener's is all a bit academic as I don't bet on every race being run.

As for 'Steamers': Your 'proof' originally claimed by you in first post...

"By avoiding them, he is suggesting you shoot the goose that lays the golden eggs!!!

The proof....

I have layed 80 drifters in the last three racing days for a profit of 14.67 units
I have backed 82 steamers in the last three days for a profit of 37.15 units

Had I backed the drifters instead of laying them I would have outlaid 80 units for a return of $64.33 - a loss of 15.67 units.

Had I layed the steamers, I would have lost close to 36 units."


Proof = 3 days of personal punting results[?] lol lol :-))

The three days was an example crash,

the proof lies in 4 months plus 56,000 races.

I never said you or anyone else can't make money from drifters, I said that ignoring the steamers was killing the golden goose, and for me it lays golden eggs.

each to their own, I guess.

Following the money solely today - no form.

Out 50
In 70.66
Profit 20.66 Units
41.32% POT

No use skiting about following 'the smart money' here mate [I saw a good example of that in r2 in Bris., following that donkey down to $1.15!].

You should have just followed my money, as you could have almost added another zero to your profit percentage yesterday.

The real smart money went on with a whoosh in Brisbane [another in Melb. too] far too late for money watchers to follow.
34/1 down into 15/1 within seconds before the jump while your lot was too busy jumping all over the donkey to notice anything!

PS: Don't take me too seriously Chrome. Just a friendly ribbing! lol lol :-))

I layed Scattergun crash, as there was no smart money for it, from my sources it remained rock solid at $1.20 all through betting, unless of course you're talking about tote corrections.

One can't necessarily carte blanche just lay drifters and back firmers, there is a point where drifters become profitable and firmers become unprofitable, but it's probably the reverse of what is commonly thought.

Some examples of the shorter horses I layed that firmed:
Black Tom
Aerated
Delusion
Scattergun
Go Sequalo
Mashudu
Hy Dream
Paris Zero
Fire In The Night
Collodi
Hot Danish
Camarilla
Blutigeroo
Foxy Boy

Of that lot only Mashudu and Hot Danish won.

Some examples of the shorter horses I backed that firmed:

Devil Moon WON
Lord Of The Dance WON
Bonza Crop WON
Two Fingers
The Jackal
Jay Low Girl WON
Miss Kooch
Tipungwuti
Mi Casa

Then I have the drifters that I backed:

Striken
Mr Lovalover
Jestajeune
Danes Mystery WON
Scenes
Class Apart WON
Starbird
Classic Truce
Bitabiff WON
Schapelle WON
Elegant Roi
Tricky Belle WON
Rock Slide WON
Romsey
Lachlan Valley
Shouldawon
Love's Great WON
Amberino
Evilweb WON
McCloud
Bianomour
Bobadah WON
Hot 'N' Ready
Haradasun
Bentley Biscuit WON
Yaya Lad
San Simeon

Today, Sunday

44 units out
62.95 units in
18.95 units profit
43.06% POT

CP,

Your system seems very consistent in getting a profit.

Congratulations.

Thanks wesmip1,

I'll post the profit/loss until next Sunday to include the Saturday's events so you get some idea. It does have it's bad days of course, but I'm running in excess of 20% POT.

After that time, send me an email at racestats at hotmail dot com and I'll share the rules so you can track it yourself.

I don't want to post the rules on the forum, as it will get pilfered or in fact claimed by the seagulls ;)

Me too? :) :)

Sure AP,

I don't want to be inundated with emails, but I'm prepared to share it with forum regulars.
To ensure, we don't get flyby nighters, I'll compile a list:

So far we have:
wesmip1
Angry Pixie

Please include your forum username in the email and I'll send the rules to you on Sunday.

To give some indication of the performance for April thus far.

382 bets (backing and laying)
85.52 units profit
22.39% POT

Assuming 5% commission already deducted.

Worst day -12.01 units (Sat 7th April)
Best Day +21.66 units (Sat 14th April)

That's transactions everyday, but with the most transactions being on a Saturday.
I'm placing my turnover on Betfair within a few minutes to jump, so I dare say if you got on just a little earlier for better prices, the balance would be better, but I've been caught out by late price movements, so I stick with less than two minutes to go.

Interesting results Chrome, may i also have a copy of the rules?.

Cheers kiwi.:)

I'm intrigued :)

Chrome can you send me a copy pretty please :D chucky_s_3000 at yahoo dot com dot au

Yes, I'll post a copy to any interested forum regulars.

Just send me an email and I'll send you the method on Sunday after I've written a small tutorial explaining it all. It isn't straightforward to explain but quite easy in practice.

Today
27 out
28.88 in
1.88 units profit
6.96% POT

Quiet day today.

Tuesday

18 Out
20.08 In
2.08 Profit
11.55% POT

Another quiet day.

Wednesday Results:

40 units out
24.28 units in
15.72 units lost

A poor day yesterday - the biggest drawdown yet.

Total April Results

467 units out
545.47 returned
78.47 units profit
16.80% POT

Thursday results:

35 units out
41.46 units In
Profit 6.46 units
POT 18.46%

Brings April total to:

502 out
586.93 In
Profit 84.93
POT 16.92%

Sunday to Thursday it's 13.65 units profit for the week so far, with the worst recorded day ever falling yesterday.

Roll on Friday ;)

im guessing here but do the top 3 have bearing??? ie nos 1 2 3 today i had nr 3 no1 cr 5 no2 nr6 no2 this was waiting till 0 secs b4 jump ************ unitab is so slow to refresh

Hi ****************,

Nothing to do with TAB numbers or TAB fluctuations, although you're close with the timing of the bets.

Send me an email to racestats at hotmail dot com with your forum username and I'll send you the rules on Sunday.

My motherboard has fried today, so I'm trying to extract the spreadsheet from my drive, bear with me.

Friday was a loss

35 units out
15.84 units in
19.16 units lost

Now losing for the week, so looking forward to Saturday.

Saturday returned 7.35 units profit.

I have now sent the email to those who requested it, if you haven't received it, please let me know.

Got it. Thanks
 

Looks like an interesting read. Much appreciated.

18 units profit for Sunday guys ;)

April total profit 115.60 units including the Betfair commission taken out.

CP,

Just sent an email to you for the rules.

Thanks.