Why Weekend Hussler will disappoint
 

WEEKEND HUSSLER, winner of 12 from 15 at an exceptional 80% strike rate that includes seven G1 wins from eight attempts....amazing no matter how you look at it, right?

This horse appears to have it all. An ability to take a position where it suits and then relax until jockey Brad Rawiller asks the horse to let down and KABOOM, watch him explode!

Weekend Hussler's breeding gives some insight into why the gelding is such an exciting thoroughbred with both sire and dam containing some of the world's most gifted racehorses and sires over the last century.

Sire Hussonet is by the influencial Mr Prospector while Hussonet's dam Sacahuista won the 1987 renewal of the US Breeders Cup Turf. Apart from being the dam of Hussonet she also produced Ekraar, a G1 winner in Italy over 11f and three time stakes winner in the UK. Go searching through Sacahuista's pedigree and you'll find champions Ribot and Man'O'War as well as a double cross of Nearco.

Plenty has been made of Weekend Hussler's staying influence on the side of his dam Weekend Beauty...and that's spot on. Hussler's damsire Helissio won the ARC in France as well as two other G1's over 2400m in France. Helissio carries plenty of staying blood via his dam Helice who has US Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew as her 2nd sire while her damsire Val De Loir sired Japan Cup winner Pay The Buttler. Other stallions of note among Weekend Beauty's bloodline are Northern Dancer, Grosvenor, Roberto, Star Kingdom and plenty of Nearco ....what more would you want in a racehorse ?!?!

The answer depends on what type of racehorse one wants.

Cont.....

I assuming you're asking the question ""Why Weekend Hussler will disappoint ?""
rather than saying this is why "Why Weekend Hussler will disappoint" ?

I've been looking for reasons to knock this horse for 9 months & have struggled to come up with one, the only query is how it'll deal with it's inexperience at longer distances but it's already shown that it's capable with still having alot in the tank, personally i hope Pompei Ruler & a few others give it a real challenge all spring, but it may well be that Weekend Hussler is just better than anything else going around.

He's also got At Talaq on the dam side -

Won: Grand Prix de Paris-G1 (FR), L.K.S. Mc Kinnon S.-G1 (AUS), Foster's Melbourne Cup-G1 (AUS), C. F. Orr S.-G2 (AUS)

2nd: Warren S. (ENG), Grosser Preis von Berlin-G1 (GER), Underwood S.-G1 (AUS), Craiglee S.-G2 (AUS), Foster's Caulfield Cup-G1 (AUS), Australian Cup-G1 (AUS)

3rd: Derby Italiano-G1 (ITY)

If WH wins the Cox Plate, a paddock should follow, not a flogging in the big Cups. Money will rule though and it will be onto the Cups.

Im really looking forward to this Saturdays race. It will answer alot of questions as to where these horses are placed for the big races this spring. God I love this time of year!!

WH last run wasnt that impressive as for me. Another word is that the longer it go, the less impressive I am. This weekend will end his great performance. I believe Tuesday JOy, PR or Littorio will impress.

As well, the 55.5kg(56.5kg in CC) is probably the reason he might still run in those. If he wins the Cox Plate and keeps winning next Autumn, he might get 59kg+ next year for the cups, so couldn't run. I reckon it's this year or never.

I don't think there's been a more impressive run this season from any horse. He was three wide on the pace the whole trip and, under those circumstances, was a sitting shot for any horse behind him to run over the top of him. He easily held PR to the line. TJ and Littorio are handicappers.
WH should clearly run odds-on and win the Turnbull. Here's the field:

PATINACK TURNBULL STAKE

4-Y-O & Up. SW + P No Claims. Group 1.

2000 Metres $502,000 4.20 PM

 1 Efficient (NZ) (John Sadler) S W Arnold 6 58.5

 2 Pompeii Ruler (Mick Price) C Newitt 2 58.5

 3 Zipping (John Sadler) 9 58.5

 4 Weekend Hussler (Ross McDonald) B Rawiller 13 57.5

 5 Master O'Reilly (NZ) (Danny O'Brien) V Duric 8 57.0

 6 Maldivian (NZ) (Mark Kavanagh) M Rodd 7 57.0

 7 Tuesday Joy (NZ) (Gai Waterhouse) D Beadman 11 56.5

 8 Guillotine (NZ) (David Hayes) C Williams 5 56.0

 9 Zarita (NZ) (Pat Hyland) G Childs 12 55.5

10 Alexander of Hales (USA) (Danny O'Brien) D Oliver 3 54.5

11 Extend (John Sadler) 1 54.5

12 Zagreb (David Hayes) D Dunn 10 54.0

13 Littorio (Nigel Blackiston) Steven King 4 53.0

Ive watched the race a few times and i can only see weekend hussler 3 wide from the 800 to about the 500. Pompeii Ruler to my eye was taking a fair amount of ground off the champ untill it got a fair check, then once he rebalanced was taking more ground off the hussler all the way to the line. I dont see in the race how he easily held P.R. watching the replay here http://www.horseracing.bigpond.com/ if there is another one showing the run differently please point it out.

By the way im definitely not bagging the horse, i dont know how anyone can. I just saw the run very differently.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skytrain WEEKEND HUSSLER, winner of 12 from 15 at an exceptional 80% strike rate that includes seven G1 wins from eight attempts....amazing no matter how you look at it, right? This horse appears to have it all. An ability to take a position where it suits and then relax until jockey Brad Rawiller asks the horse to let down and KABOOM, watch him explode!.............. ........The answer depends on what type of racehorse one wants. Cont.....

Before you go on, please excuse spelling, missed words of paragraphs or anything that appears gibberish as I have had a VERY EARLY morning and I'm all horsed out. I actually forgot to finish this except I saw a comment in my mail, so here it goes..............

(Deleted - shouting. Moderator.)

Starting from barrier 13 this Saturday at his first trip over 2000m will be his first big test. Flemington's long straight will give the field plenty of time to run him down, especially with the set weight and penalties working against him. The majority of the field are stayers aiming at the Cups and they'll be getting close to peak fitness. I have no doubt that should he fail (without reasonable excuse) on Saturday then he is no hope in the Caulfield Cup. Here's why....

Firstly I believe that the horses he'll meet in the Caulfield Cup have yet to show their best. Horses like Zagreb, Maldivian, Tuesday Joy, Nom Du Jeu, Red Ruler and Zipping have been running well over unsuitable distances and won't have any problems at the 12f. Futhermore, with the weights to be increased it will favour those genuine stayers and that isn't taking into consideration the chance of a wet track that would really see them slog it out.

While Weekend Hussler's breeding suggest he should run 2400m comfortably, I believe that won't be the case. The gelding's greatest asset is his turn of foot and I can see it being greatly diminished once he gets above 2000m. While Weekend Hussler does relax well in his races we've only seen him step above 1600m once (1800m at Caulfield) and that was at WFA. Running the 2400m of the hectic Caulfield Cup will be a completely different ball game with Weekend Hussler having to give a horse like Zagreb 5kgs !!!

I'm also concerned that connections haven't set the horse for one specific race, expecting him to back up seven days later over 10f. While it has been done before you'll find that those successful in their venture have usually been around the block previously (eg: Northerly had won the Cox Plate the year before taking out the Caulfield Cup x Cox Plate double.)

It's a major concern that Weekend Hussler has become accustomed to racing over the sprinter/miler trip which will work against him both physically and mentally as the race distance increase. Until last start all but one of his races were between 1200m - 1600m yet he'll be going up greatly in distance after this weeks Turnbull. It's extremely rare for a horse to race in the Caulfield Cup without having raced at 2000m + in a previous preparation and surely the Caulfield Cup is not the race to test a 4yr old's staying ability.

Remember, the opposition in this years Caulfield Cup has a great combination of class and potential. Maldivian, Tuesday Joy and Zipping (should he run) are more than capable of winning the race although it's the 4yr olds that I've targetted in the early markets. Littorio, Guillotine, Zarita and Zagreb will all be meeting Weekend Hussler this Saturday and I suggest that a close eye is kept on all.

When it's all said and done I simply see Weekend Hussler as a miler who may be able to get over 2000m on raw ability, but not against the best stayers in Australasia giving them weight....and I haven't even touched on the imports.

The Cox Plate is a completely different scenerio. The problems I see Weekend Hussler confronting are not so problematic one out but combined they are disastrous.

First we take a look at the track itself...insanity !!! For a horse like W.Husler the strathayr surface is a nightmare as it nullifies his greatest asset...a blistering turn of foot. The strathayr surface has plenty of give and the simple fact is that horses hit top speed quicker on a firm surface . What's worse for those exploding types is that they'll perform at their best when balanced up which can be difficult when letting down on the cambered turn that Moonee Valley provides.

The Cox Plate itself is usually run at high speed and come the 800m mark they start powering along. This compounds the problem for horses that like to be held back a little for one powerful burst as they find themselves way out of their ground rounding the final turn. Because of the fast tempo it's almost impossible to win the Cox Plate unless you're close to the lead on entering the straight which simply means that a horse must be able to sustain a long run at high speed. Acceleration is not a neccesity except for the rare occassion where there's no speed. Last year's renewal saw El Segundo race handier than usual, sprinting away to win a race devoid of front runners although that won't be the case this year if Maldivian and Devil Moon take their place.

The effect of the strathayr surface on certain types of thoroughbreds can't be underestimated. Horses like Tie The Knot, Lonhro and Shogun Lodge could run lightning fast sectionals yet failed in the Cox Plate, due in part to their inability to go early and sustain a run which caught them out. Since the reconstruction of the Moonee Valley track we've seen the race won by Octagonal, Saintly, Might And Power, Northerly, Fields Of Omagh, Sunline, Makybe Diva...all horses that could go early and work their way to within striking distance of the leaders (or lead themselves) but more importantly sustain that run from the 800m all the way home. Again, acceleration is not vital, in fact Northerly was often caught a little flat footed yet he won all three starts at the Valley.

I do not believe that Weekend Hussler fits into the latter group, if anything his ability to relax then explode is very much in the same mould of Lonhro, a champion racehorse who was lengths below his best on the strathayr track.

Like Lonhro, Weekend Hussler will never have raced on the track prior to the Cox Plate. This can be taken any way one likes yet I believe it's a mistake. In my opinion it makes sense to observe how a horse handles the track so any adjustments can be made or so the jockey can re-evaluate his race plan (eg: horse changes leg on straightening, drifts onto fence as Northerly used to or struggles to pick up speed...which would force them to ride the horse closer to the lead.) And so on and so on...I can remember the connections of Grandera saying how they would love to run the race over again due to the track's "unusual complexities". Or something like that.

What can't be overlooked is the fact that this horse has just turned 4yrs and coming into the Cox Plate will be having his 7th start for the preparation. Considering that he had never gone futher than 1600m in past preps there has to be concerns on him going over the top or burning out. Unlike other runners set solely for the race, their first few runs nothing more than barrier trials, Weekend Hussler has been racing hard ever since his first up loss. Forget the fact that he displays an appearance of a horse with plenty of condition, the trick is to keep him fresh enough so he can produce his brilliance while getting him fit enough to run out the staying trips.

The problem as I see it is training the horse to stay the 12f of the Caulfield Cup without affecting his speed required for the Cox Plate. Fred Kersley wouldn't have had the same problem as the qualities that saw Northerly win the Caulfield Cup made him the perfect type for the Cox Plate...just bowl along on pace at a high crusing speed. More importantly, coming into the 2002 Caulfield Cup x Cox Plate double, Northerly was a tough 6yr old veteran with six group 1 wins to his name, three of those at 2000m.

The one advantage Weekend Hussler does have with the Cox Plate is it's a smaller select field at WFA. The wild cards often come in the shape of the 3yr olds who need to have a combination of class and toughness to defeat the older seasoned superstars. More often than not it's a case of last 3yr old standing.

If Weekend Hussler was being set for the Cox Plate alone, passing the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, I would rate him as the horse to beat BUT the Caulfield Cup is a tough race for the best of them and I can't help but feel that when they roll into the Moonee Valley straight seven days later, Weekend Hussler will have had enough.

Because I doubt that Weekend Hussler will be anywhere but the spelling paddock come Melbourne Cup day I'll quickly say that Efficient is the horse to beat. Zabeels are like fine wine and the rise in weight should be offset by his overall improvement. Again the lightly weighted 4yr olds that scrape into the race will make it interesting as will the imports yet I like the fact that the Melbourne Cup has again been Efficient's only focus.

You're right there HW. He was posted 3-wide only in that part of the race where you don't want to be 3 wide, and at that stage he also had no cover and was sitting on a strong speed set by Maldivian. PR had the drop on him and would have beaten any other horse in Australia under similar circumstances.

I expect we agree that WH was the better run and better than the margin reflects.

.

My comments were only based on the fact i had read in so many different places that Weekend Hussler was 3 wide the entire trip but he wasnt. My thoughts were if Pompeii ruler hadnt come in on Weekend hussler and had to rebalance slightly it would have been a very good race between the two. This weekend will be the deciding race on how good this horse is stepping up to 2000m and against probably the best field he has faced. Im not a knocker of the horse but i would love to see it get beaten, just for the simple fact that im an aussie and i love to see the underdog get up :) Just like i was barracking for Hawthorne last week for the same reason

He did run the first part of the race outside of Indio Glorioso who in turn was outside of Maldivian...it's really a matter of perspective.

But both of those horses went around the outside of Weekend Hussler after they jumped?? He never went around Indio Glorioso untill the 800?

Try this -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4gzrusADoM

He doesn't get past Indio Glorioso until around 1:13 into the race. Before that he sits behind Indio Glorioso, and probably wider than that horse (which is one of the fence outside Maldivian).

There is a clear picture of him racing 3 wide between 0:47 and 0:49.

It is a matter of perspective as to whether he was racing 3 wide before that - you just can't tell with the camera angle.

What was impressive about the run was that he raced wide without cover on the speed for a significant portion of the race and was still too good for Pompeii Ruler, who had the sit on him.

Tomorrow should be much the same pattern - with Maldivian leading from Weekend Hussler and Pompeii Ruler sitting back 3rd or possibly 4th if Extend pushes up. The advantage to these three runners, compared to Caulfield, is that Indio Glorioso is not in the field. This takes some pressure out of the speed.

Barring some crazy track bias (remember this meeting last year) Weekend Hussler should win.

Your right Filante it is a matter of perspective. I also agree with you on where the horses will be placed tomorrow. Tuesday joy should be back around 6th or 7th and Littorio 12th or 13th. They come roud the turn and the Hussler kicks clear. pompeii ruler chasing hard and goes past him around the 100m with tuesday joy closing hard and littorio coming from the clouds. Tusday Joy and Littorio get past Pompeii ruler in the last 20m (ala the cox plate 2yrs ago :P) and a photo finish between Tuesday Joy and Littorio keeps everyone on the edge of their seats. The Hussler a galant 4th after being 3 wide on the fence the entire trip (your honor i retract that final comment)

No but in all seriousness I cant wait for this race tomorrow and if the Hussler i wont be to upset knowing i have finally witnessed one of these greats everyone talks about before i began following the GG's.

I fear there is an aweful lot riding on what really is a lead-in race..... it is a very good field but, IMHO it's really not a defining race for the "making" of a horse. It's more a good lead to where all these horses are at after their last couple of starts have been neither here-nor-there and also been on rather interesting tracks patterns and of course has lead to some interesting results....looking forward to a good race and for the record I'm on the Ruler, which for the place represent better value than the Huss for the win.

Theis meeting up until about 4 years ago was just a run of the mill lead in meetings, until Makybe ran through and the Media (and VRC) ran with it and all power to them.

Good Luck to those having a punt, or just watching and looking for their "thrill"

Peace

8 of the last 20 winners have started from barrier 12 or further out.

12 of the last 20 winners have started from barriers 1 - 11 :)

Touche !

if extend does what he did last start he might help set a real good tempo ,,,might suit the stablemates , littorio and Tuesdays Joy ..
could Loyd be using the pacemaker tactic ?? i've backed littorio and had a little on Zipping at the 81's ..

Proven!!!

wow.. nice work.. does this mean WH spring is finished? He got Pwned!

post21,
Aren't those tactics illegal under the Rules Of Racing?

WH's renowned flat spot just went on and on ! Is this the end?

Post 24
Not sure ?
might come under the rule "riding the horse different for previous start ect" Extend always leads or atleast takes off early ,, its only my opinion that thinks he was wasting his time and doing a favour for the stayers out the back.,,an opinion that was luckily right and very profitable.

With the track bias IN FAVOUR OF WEEKEND HUSSLER he still got his brains kicked in by opposition that are finally reaching their peak form.

Simply put HE WAS EXPOSED !!!

Until today Weekend Hussler had never done anything "OUTSTANDING" yet we had people talking him up in the class of Phar Lap....INSANITY !!!

How quickly we forget a horse like Octagonal who followed up his Cox Plate win in the Spring with four Group 1 wins in the space of five weeks against horses like Saintly, Nothin Leica Dane and some other class horse with a stupid name.....yet Weekend Hussler wins Group 1's against an EI ravaged field and some decent sprinter-milers and next thing we know he's installed favourite for the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup....

I honestly thought I was going mad, which is why I'm so glad he flopped today as it justified my original belief that I'm the only sane punter in the whole damn country.....snapping up the overs on horses like Zipping and Co. as everyone else got swept up in the Hussle...

C'mon, surely I earn't bragging rights on this one. In fact if any of you gave some long, objective thoughts to my post then there was plenty of value to be had on the Hussler's opposition.

That said I didn't back Littorio in the Turnbull and I don't have him in any of my futures at fixed odds so it may all be for nothing in that respect.

I did however snare;

Zipping 20 (Caulf. Cup) x Samantha Miss 16 (Cox Plate) @ 320/1 9th Sep.

Zipping 20 (Caul. Cup) x Efficient 10 (Melb. Cup) @ 300/1

and a few others that are in with a chace.

Hope you had something on him today or at least in the Caulfield Cup where he'll carry 52.5kgs.

My best Caulfield Cup bets revolved around Zagreb at 50's and even a couple at 60's and with 50.5kgs I still think it was a good investment but after watching today's performances I would much rather be on Littorio at half the price if I had the chance.

The first three over the line in the Turnbull all went super.

must admit i didnt think he'd be gone so early,,then again i suppose any other horse facing the breeze 3 wide the whole way around a flemington 2000m would have excuses...

anyone heard what the plan is for him ?? do they go the Cox ??

When you start talking Phar Lap and Kingston Town you expect a horse to do better than he did against the horses that belted him today.

Champions can overcome unfavourable circumstances when required and to be honest I didn't see Weekend Hussler's situation as any reason for him to be so soundly defeated.

It wasn't as though he got badly checked and almost fell....had to be pulled across heels and forced to start his run again with only 150m to go...in a race like the Australian Cup against Makybe Diva, Elvstroem, Mummify, Pentastic and Delzao.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R29N...feature=related

I doubt that McDonald would throw their plans on the scrapheap after one loss because he has such a huge opinion of him but if they were to change anything you'd have to think that the Cox Plate over 10f at WFA would suit him better than a handicap at Caulfield over 12f.

On NSW TAB fixed odds he's still favourite (just) at 5/2 while has lost favourtism to Littorio for the Caulfield Cup.

He is 25/1 for the Melbourne Cup....

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Content deleted ---- Members do not read these posts to be called idiots. Moderator.

Maybe the Hussle just had an off day, it happens to all horses. Having said that. I've never called the horse a champion ...yet.

Crash I agree...always allow a good horse at least one below par run.....

i hope he continues , as a punter i'll have a better chance at getting better odds for my selection . Littorio at 11's was incredible overs yesterday and Zipping at 81's ?

Now as a racing lover i couldnt help but be alittle sad the Huss was defeated so badly. The sport needs a champion. I must admit i've hardly backed him at all as he's always to short for me but i've enjoyed watching him win.

I,m with you Maverick .
I hardly ever bet the champs as their odds are generally prohibitive.

Cheers.
darky

If the odds are half decent i'd back him Next time out,

Hussler is still fav to win the cox plate @ around $3.50 ... what the??? i definitely cant seeing him winning it after the turnbull .. why is he still favourite?? Im with the the pomp ruler.

Weight of money. There would already have been a load of money bet on him. And also, as suggested, the thought that this was just his one bad run and he may be able to turn it all around.

I couldnt back anything against the hussler with confidence in the Cox plate. Even though its over 2040 its the sort of race in my opinion will suit him. Im happy with my bets on Littorio and Nom De Jeu in the Caulfield Cup, but i cant pick anything against him at the valley

....was he, dear I say, it the peoples E.I. champion........

Whilst I love racing, I am humbled by the wealth of knowledge here, but in my 45 years on the punt I could write a volume twice the size of War and Peace, full of Weekend Hussler type failures.

I have to take my hat off to Maverick........ outstanding stuff!! Crash didn't you have a bit EW on Zipping?