Neural Selections
 

I have been tinkering with some Neural settings since 26th July on Saturdays only. As at 15th November there has been 109 selections for 36 winners (and another 22 placed horses). This gives a win strike rate of 33.0% and a 66.2 POT% (using Sportsbet citybest+ dividends).

There are 5 selections for today :-

Sandown R4#5 Sensational Toy
Sandown R5#1 Itsamonty
Sandown R8#4 Whitehaven Girl
Eagle Farm R4#3 Rezone
Eagle Farm R6#2 Borsh'a Mark

Let the Forum Curse begin!!!

Close but no damaged done - finished just in front for the day

Sandown R4#5 Sensational Toy 3rd
Sandown R5#1 Itsamonty WON $5.10
Sandown R8#4 Whitehaven Girl 2nd
Eagle Farm R4#3 Rezone 4th
Eagle Farm R6#2 Borsh'a Mark 2nd

Here we go for 22nd November!

Eagle Farm R7#15 Insistence
Eagle Farm R8#3 Satsang
Moonee Valley R6#2 Justsay Sumthink
Moonee Valley R8#5 Snappy Tom
Morphettville R6#7 Falvelon's Dream

A bit of value with several of these selections.

Nearly a great day with Satsang finishing 2nd in EF R8 after Insistence won EF R7 at $37.30!

Eagle Farm R7#15 Insistence WON $37.30
Eagle Farm R8#3 Satsang 2nd
Moonee Valley R6#2 Justsay Sumthink unpl
Moonee Valley R8#5 Snappy Tom unpl
Morphettville R6#7 Falvelon's Dream unpl

Update
10 bets 2 winners 6 place
Outlay $10
Collect $42.40
POT% 324.0 (Nice but won't continue!)

Absolutely brilliant. Thanks a lot. I backed Insistence. Yippeeeee!!

Hi Marcus

Glad to see you also backed Insistence. It was a great result. As with any day on the punt there will be bad days, good days and great days. A $37.30 winner was a unexpected but gratefully accepted!
Let's hope our success continues.

Here we go for 6th December!

Caulfield R1#4 Ulysses
Caulfield R6#1 Itsamonty
Caulfield R7#4 Boss It's Over
Caulfield R8#9 Snappy Tom
Doomben R3#1 Tariki
Doomben R7#13 Tour Guide

No luck today with 4 placings ($3.40, $2.20, $3.30 & $5.70) from the 6 selected horses. As I said last week you have bad days, good days and great days - this was a bad day!
Update:
16 bets 2 winners 10 places
Outlay $16
Collect $42.40
POT 165.0%

For anyone looking purely at the place bets
Outlay $16
Collect $34.64
POT 116.5%

Great thing about this game there is always next week!

Here we go for 13th December.

Eagle Farm R5#1 Red Sphere
Eagle Farm R6#5 Strat's Flyer
Eagle Farm R7#10 Satsang
Flemington R2#2 Ballack
Flemington R6#7 Jennings
Flemington R8#2 Dr Nipandtuck
Morphettville R7#6 Just Flipper

The only proviso for today is if Flemington or Morphettville is downgraded to a Heavy Track ther eis not bets at those meetings. Good Luck!

With Flemington being downgraded to a Heavy Track we finished with 4 bets.

Eagle Farm R5#1 Red Sphere
Eagle Farm R6#5 Strat's Flyer WON $2.60/$1.40
Eagle Farm R7#10 Satsang 2nd -/$6.40
Morphettville R7#6 Just Flipper

A short 1/2 head meant a "bad" day rather than a "great" day - isn't that the punter's lament. Satsang was paying a win dividend of $17.20 - so close yet so far!

Update:
20 bets 3 winners 12 places
Outlay $20
Collect $45.00
POT 125.0%

For anyone looking purely at the place bets
Outlay $20
Collect $42.24
POT 111.2%

The good thing is there is always next week. Good punting.

Selections for 20th December are :-

Doomben R3#3 Our Lucas
Doomben R6#3 Sir Breakfast
Doomben R7#10 Cocktail Supreme
Doomben R8#1 Mr Slick
Flemington R7#4 Immortality
Morphettville R3#2 Miss Razzle Dazzle

A mixture of a shortie and some longer priced selections.

Good luck and bring on the Christmas Turkey!

Again we are thereabouts but no doing any damage (either way)!

Doomben R3#3 Our Lucas 2nd -/$1.50
Doomben R6#3 Sir Breakfast 3rd -/$3.30
Doomben R7#10 Cocktail Supreme
Doomben R8#1 Mr Slick WON $1.50/$1.30
Flemington R7#4 Immortality
Morphettville R3#2 Miss Razzle Dazzle WON $3.10/$1.20

Update:
26 bets 5 winners 16 places
Outlay $26
Collect $49.60
POT 90.7%

For anyone looking purely at the place bets
Outlay $26
Collect $49.54
POT 90.5%

Bring on next Saturday!

Here we go for Saturday 27th December. Only 2 selections both at Doomben.

Doomben R7#1 Rags To Riches
Doomben R8#4 Borsha's Mark

Not quite the result we wanted today with both horses running 2nd. One (Rags to Riches) tried to lead all the way but got "nutted" near the line and the other (Borsha's Mark) chasing hard but didn't quite pick up the leader!

Doomben R7#1 Rags To Riches 2nd -/$3.00
Doomben R8#4 Borsha's Mark 2nd -/$1.70

Update:
28 bets 5 winners 18 places
Outlay $28
Collect $49.60
POT 77.1%

For anyone looking purely at the place bets
Outlay $28
Collect $54.24
POT 93.7%

As I am away for a week there will not be any selections next Saturday (3rd Jan). Bring on the 10th January!

Have a Great Profitable New Year to everyone.

Well we're back after a freshen up.

Selections for 10th January 2009 are :-

Caulfield R4#4 Annesong
Caulfield R5#3 Mind Your Head
Caulfield R6#1 Itsamonty
Caulfield R8#2 Go Missy
Cheltenham R5#7 Jest For Fun
Gold Coast R5#5 Satsang
Gold Coast R8#5 Voice Commander

Good luck to all!

Not bad today with 3 winners and a 3rd from the 7 bets (one race only having 4 runners so no place pool - fortunately we got the winner!).

Caulfield R4#4 Annesong WON $4.80/$1.70
Caulfield R5#3 Mind Your Head WON $4.40/npp
Caulfield R6#1 Itsamonty
Caulfield R8#2 Go Missy WON $2.40/$1.40
Cheltenham R5#7 Jest For Fun
Gold Coast R5#5 Satsang
Gold Coast R8#5 Voice Commander 3rd -/$2.60

Update:
35 bets 8 winners 22 places
Outlay $35
Collect $61.20
POT 74.8%

For anyone looking purely at the place bets
Outlay $34
Collect $59.94
POT 76.3%

Until next Saturday good luck to all!

Nice going mate!

Thanks Crash,

I know I'm a long way from the holy grail but maybe I'm at least heading down the right path! Time will tell. Small steps followed by small steps.

Mate, your strike rate and POT on place betting only is outstanding, based on the 35 bets. It will be interesting to see if these results continue once the data set becomes larger (hopefully it does!).

Hi Cairnspunter,

We would all be dreaming if we thought we could maintain those sort of return on investment long term. The figures I am quoting here are from the first day I put up the selections (22nd November 2008).

I have been following this Neural method of selections since 26th July 2008. the results since then has been:-

Selections 144
Wins 44
Win S/R 30.6%
Places 79
Place S/R 54.9%
Win Outlay $144.00
Win Collect $242.40
Win POT% 68.3%
Place Outlay $143.00 (one race had only 4 runners so no place pool)
Place Collect $174.14
Place POT% 21.8%

144 selections is still a very small data set but since it is currently paying dividends I'm enjoying the adventure!

Thought it was too god to be true! You are absolutely right though, the larger data set reveals the truer picture. It is interesting how the place POT drops significantly, yet its strike rate is still reasonably high (63% down to 54%). The win strike rate rises from 22% to 30%.

144 selections, while not large, is a reasonable size to have some confidence in. Let's see what the next 12 months bring.

Hi Try Try Again I ws interested I was interested in exploring the neural algorithm approach - can you steer me in the right direction in terms of any published articles or books on the subject?

Hi Cairnspunter,

As a starting point I would go to the Racing and Sports website,
go to Racing -Today
go to Free Daily Stats
Select a meeting to open e.g. Ballarat
Select Neural Algorithms
Go to Read Neural Explanation

Otherwise I would Google "Neural Algorithms Horse Racing".

I have not been as interested in the theory as more in the practice!

Good luck in your adventure.

Selections for Saturday 17th January are:-

Eagle Farm R2#3 Hunters Moon
Eagle Farm R8#1 Majorca
Flemington R4#1 Vigor
Flemington R5#11 Raffaello
Flemington R6#12 Silky Smooth
Flemington R7#3 Immortality
Morphettville R4#1 Merlot Now

Good luck to all!

Disappointing to say the least with only Vigor winning but we did get 3 other placings.

Eagle Farm R2#3 Hunters Moon
Eagle Farm R8#1 Majorca 3rd -/$2.00
Flemington R4#1 Vigor WON $1.90/$1.10
Flemington R5#11 Raffaello
Flemington R6#12 Silky Smooth
Flemington R7#3 Immortality 2nd -/$1.90
Morphettville R4#1 Merlot Now 2nd -/$2.70

Update:
42 bets 9 winners 26 places
Outlay $42
Collect $63.10
POT 50.2%

For anyone looking purely at the place bets
Outlay $41
Collect $68.64
POT 67.4%

Until next Saturday good luck to all!

Tough day at the office but place bets only would have got you slightly ahead. I do think that your selections (as places only) would provide steady, but unspectacular, profits in the long run. I'm going to keep following them from a place perspective.

Hi Cairnspunter,

Thanks for your interest in my Neural selections. The place dividends do keeping things ticking over when we have a day like last Saturday when winners were hard to find. However, with the win POT % is sitting at >60%, since July, I bet only for a win and wear the losses when they occur but also bask in the glory when winners come flowing in! (hope the latter continues!).

With Place strike rate of just over 50% I feel the frustration of some small dividends would not suit me. Obviously, you need to be able to get the "optimum" dividends (whether for a win or a place) to be able to survive in this industry.

I will still continue to list both win and place dividends.

Which ever way you decide to bet good luck to you and I hope success is but a bet away!

if you dont mind me asking how does this work?

Hi Jayjones1,

I'm not sure what you mean by how does this work?

If you want to investigate or play with the Neural options have a look at the Racing and Sports website,
go to Racing -Today
go to Free Daily Stats
Select a meeting to open e.g. Ballarat, Caulfield etc
Select Neural Algorithms

From here you can set the parameters (between 0 and 5) you think may influence the race whether it be Current Form, Jockey/Trainer combinations, $ earnt or any of the other settings. It is upto you.

I have my preferences and they seem to be working.

It is a bit of fun playing with all the variables, you should enjoy it.

Cheers

Try Try Again

Those are some very nice looking stats, have you tried other days of the week for this? Maybe even just a Wednesday with the Metrop meetings and high class provincial tracks?

It looks like almost the perfect amount of action for a saturday, nice work

Hi Schmucta80,

The restrictions I place on the races (I apply the Neural factors to) would eliminate most of the midweek races - I do not look at any restricted races except for Class 6 races.

My initial investigations showed the better class races give more consistent results. This may be a short term result, of course, but it has stood me well over the past 6 months.

The good thing about the neurals is the fun in getting the "correct" settings for the "right" races and distances.

Is it the thrill of the chase or the capture?

Try Try Again

I think you are well on the way to having captured something ;)

very nice profit levels

Selections for 24th January:-

Eagle Farm R7#4 Satsang
Morphettville R3#2 All About Annie
Morphettville R4#1 Idalou
Sandown Lakeside R2#1 Youthful High
Sandown Lakeside R7#6 With Apologies

Good Punting to all!

Finally Satsang has paid us back after several close finishes!

Results today were:-

Eagle Farm R7#4 Satsang WON $7.40/$2.30
Morphettville R3#2 All About Annie
Morphettville R4#1 Idalou
Sandown Lakeside R2#1 Youthful High
Sandown Lakeside R7#6 With Apologies 2nd -/$2.00

Update:
47 bets 10 winners 28 places
Outlay $47
Collect $70.50
POT 50.0%

For anyone looking purely at the place bets
Outlay $46
Collect $72.94
POT 58.5%

Until next Saturday good luck to all!

Thanks to Satsang, the win bets outdid the place bets today. Just a quick question, I have a crappy old computer with Windows 98 and can't seem to manipulate the equations on the website as you suggested previously. Do you have to be a member of Racing and Sports to do this, or is it a problem as I suspect, with my computer?

Hi Cairnspunter,

Thanks again for your interest in my Neural selections.

I suspect it is your computer as you do not have to be a member to access the Neurals. Saying that I have found at some "peak" times it can be difficult to access the Racing & Sports website. It maybe when they are uploading the next lot of race meetings but I am unsure of this.

Once I have access to the class of the race (I use Friday's Sportsman) I enter my settings, especially the likely track conditions, and when I have my selections I only need to check for scratchings and changed track conditions on Saturday morning.

Hope you have better success next time and the winners regularly start to flow!

Try Try Again

Yeah thought so, if my computer was a car it would be a Datsun 180B.

Selections for January 31st are:-

Doomben R2#3 Azzaland
Doomben R6#7 Three Chances
Doomben R7#4 Secrets Untold
Flemington R3#3 Ladies In Luck
Flemington R4#1 Cocinero
Flemington R8#2 Itsamonty
Morphettville R8#1 Merlot Now

Good punting to all!

Another winning day for the win bets although we were let down with the place bets (for those following these).

Results today were:-

Doomben R2#3 Azzaland WON $4.00/$1.90
Doomben R6#7 Three Chances
Doomben R7#4 Secrets Untold
Flemington R3#3 Ladies In Luck WON $5.60/$1.60
Flemington R4#1 Cocinero
Flemington R8#2 Itsamonty
Morphettville R8#1 Merlot Now

Update:
54 bets 10 winners 28 places
Outlay $54
Collect $80.10
POT 48.3%

For anyone looking purely at the place bets
Outlay $53
Collect $76.44
POT 44.2%

Until next Saturday good luck to all!

Neural Selections for Saturday 7th February are:-

Doomben R5#3 Growsir
Doomben R7#3 Dance Girl Dance

With Caulfield being put off until Sunday selections will be listed tomorrow.

Good Punting to all!