A thought ...
 

While out walking this afternoon I was mulling over Beton's stats - especially the stat about favourites under $2.00 win 44% of the time.

Therefore if I layed ever favourite under $2.00 I must make a profit as 56% would lose and even at a 50% win rate a loss will always return more that a win would lose.

I will start trialing tomorrow and will post the results - they should be interesting.

It it works it will be "Inspired by Beton".

I am sure I have missed something major as it all sounds too simple! Any thoughts?

Fred

Hi 4legs. It sounds easy however I'm not sure if those stats are accurate. Wasn't there something like 80% winners under $1.50 or something? Anyway, I think if those stats were right, you would need to take a long term view maybe 6 months plus.

I remember on a UK forum there was one guy that was laying every horse under evens using a bot and he used 100% recovery of only the previous losses (not the loss plus the next bet as sometimes happens) and he went well for a while until the inevitable run of losses happened (the favourites actually won a lot in a row).

Maybe at level stakes it might have worked though.

Good luck Fred and keep us informed.

Fred
Those stats are from the tote. You are laying to betfair and thus there will be discrepancy. As the odds go down the SR rises. I would not lay under $1.50 tote prices. On tote below $1.50 is 50% o/a rising to 82% at $1.20. I would not lay under $1.70 on betfair. I am looking at laying the top three with a backing bet on the fav to soften the sting but this will only work if the the top three are closely priced. Beton

Hi Beton,
Can you give an example of such a bet .
It would be interesting exercise.

Ouch!
 

Beton & Ocho- you are both correct - the below confirms your figures, and I can see why you do not lay under $2.00. Taken from Betfair SP Results:

Date Daily Progressive

1-Jun	$ 110.01	$ 110.01
2-Jun	-$ 150.00	-$ 39.99
3-Jun	$ -	-$ 39.99
4-Jun	-$ 28.09	-$ 68.08
5-Jun	$ -	-$ 68.08
6-Jun	-$ 30.00	-$ 98.08
7-Jun	$ -	-$ 98.08
8-Jun	-$ 30.00	-$ 128.08

Summary:
14 Races with a starter under $2.00
Average BSP: $1.54
Won: 10 - 71% SR
Lost: 4 - 29% SR (but all 4 placed)

Bhagwan
lets look at an average race 9 runners. 1st fav $2.50 2nd $4 3rd $6 and 4th $8. It is going to cost $12 to back the fav to get back $30 incl stake. laying SP you will cover 20 bets for the fav 10, 6 and 4.28 bets respectfully on the next three favs. If the fav wins then you win $30 plus the divs from laying the 2nd 3rd and 4th fav, less the $30 liability and the $12 stake. A plus.
If the 2nd or 3rd wins then you come up with a negative. I suggest dropping the 4th and only use the top three as there are too many 4th favs >$10. Unless we can set to lay all horses <$10. Still to be trialled. If any other horse wins then you come out in front. In 100 races you should win 35 times on the fav. Lose 20 times on the 2nd and 15 times on the 3rd, but win 30 times on the rest of the field. On a dozen random races supports this. I was trialling with good results until my bot (BetBotPro) decided that it would lay multiple times (6 x $30 ouch). Until this is sorted or I get another bot this is in abeyence. Also need to work out how to keep the target bet at $30 incl stake rather than target to win $30.
Beton

Bhagwan
if the odds are too small then you run the risk of putting too much on the back bet which is counterproductive in 65% of the races. If the odds are too long then there is too few lay bets to come out in front. Again counterproductive. Having said that on tote the majority of races have the fav between $2 and $3. The idea is to set up 2 bots, one backing and the other laying in the price ranges and forget. Should cover 60%+ of the races.
Beton

beton, In your example how much do you win/lose if the fav wins or the second fav wins, etc? I can't work it out.

Also, what would be the point of both backing and laying the fav. Surely they would cancel each other out or am I missing something. Why not just leave the first fav out then?

Ocho
Every race will be different because of the odds of the three favs.
On the above example laying the top three only. I don't think that there is any gain laying 4. 1st fav win $4. 2nd fav lose $16 3rd fav lose $12 4th fav plus win $24. 100 bets win $860 and lose $500 to come out $360 in front. Betting the fav is a sacrifical bet otherwise you will lose $14 on the fav each time. you only want to have it big enough to break even and be slightly in front on the fav or you will be givng any gains away. If the odds shorten too much then the bet size has to increase so it is a concern but also the lay bets also increase. You can do it manually and get an optimal result but you are better going down the middle road on autopilot. The top three at the above odds give 36 lay bets which would be average and your minimum. If the odds go out too far then you are not going to get even 30 lay bets. Thus you have a minimum odd size and a maximum odds size. Fortunately most of the races are in that range
Beton

Thanks Beton
So
94% Book value based on those prices.

If Fav wins = +8.00

If 2nd Fav wins = -$12.00

If 3rd Fav wins = -$7.72

If 4th fav wins = -$6.00

If all fall over = +$28.00

The O/L total ($40) has to be greater than the individual Liability ($30)

Alternatively
One could total the O/L for the 2nd-4th fav = $20.28

$20.28 divided by the 1st favs price $2.50 = O/L $8.11

$8.11 win bet on Fav.

+$2.16 Prof if fav wins.

This also keeps the Liab down by -$4.00 on each of the 2nd-4th favs
(as above) if they should get up to win race, rather than the original Beton example.

Well done Beton
A very interesting perspective .
Thanks for sharing your findings.

Thanks Bhagwan

I think that laying the 4th will prove to be counterproductive. You are right the sacrifical bet is to reduce the liability.
???? You have got me lost on the alternative. The fav is going to win 35% of the time and the 2nd and 3rd favs will win 35% of the time cancelling each other out and then you have the 30% of the time when the field gets up which will put you in the red.
Beton

The other problem that occurs is that often the best value is on the shortest horses on Betfair.

Hint hint...

Chrome Prince
Aye Aye.
the best vaue is the shortest horses. I just took my favorite breakdown and matched it with laying the top three and backing the top for a set level stake. I used the fav odds and the ave for 2nd and 3rd. Shorter the odds -sweeter the meat. Over $4 does not warrant the effort.
Beton

nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more ;)

I have absolutely no idea what you guys are talking about and I want desperately to know. Please! :confused:

This idea Beton is very good.

I like it.

Well done.

Hi beton, Bhagwan, Chrome Prince, et al.

I still don't understand where you guys are coming from with this. Does anyone else understand?

Why would you both back and lay the fav - surely they cancel each other out.

Bhagwan - How do you end up with this if your liability is $30 at the odds mentioned by beton:
If Fav wins = +8.00

If 2nd Fav wins = -$12.00

If 3rd Fav wins = -$7.72

If 4th fav wins = -$6.00

If all fall over = +$28.00

Chrome Prince wrote: "The other problem that occurs is that often the best value is on the shortest horses on Betfair.

Hint hint..."

Why are they the best value? Do you mean to back them or lay them?

There's probably heaps more questions but that will do for now.

I know I'm a (very) simple guy but I don't get it. Can you help me to understand?

Ocho Hi
If you lay the fav by itself. At $1.50 it will win 60% of the time in which you will lose $30 but it will not win 40% of the time which you will get $60 each time. a clear 33% profit. But $1.50 favs only account for 0.2% of races. Don't run and buy the porcshe.
At $3 where the higher percentage of races are 21.5% in a 50 cent band you will lose $30 29% of the time, but you will gain $15 71% of the time. A clear profit of 22%. However if you have deep pockets to ride out the periods where the fav is having a good spell then it is good.
You add the second and third fav then you can increase your profits. By backing the fav for a small sum then you even the ups and downs for a slightly less profit.
Beton

Beton, Can you do this with one bot rather than 2 bots? My bot can place difference back or lay amounts on different favs. So in your example I would lay the 2nd and 3rd favs for $30 liability but what would I do with the first fav - would I lay to $20 or $10 liability or back it for $10 or to win $30, etc (rather than laying the fav on one bot and backing on the other)?

Ocho
I have Betbotpro and just learning. So 2 bots. one backing the fav fixed stake $12. The other laying fav 1,2 and third fav. My working out mathematically it should give $360 per 100 bets, all races. I have worked out the SR in all price increments. There is potentially more in just laying the top three but there was eight loses straight at one stage today. The only problem I have is implementation. My bot randomly throws on multiple bets on races and rarely lays the three horses. I don't know what is occurring. What bot are you using? Beton

Beton,

I am using BF Bot Manager Version 2 that can handle multiple favs. I was just trying it out in sim mode today laying the 2nd and 3rd favs and, at one stage, there were 31 out of 32 races in a row where the 2nd and 3rd favs didn't salute WOW WEE.

As I'm writing though there have been 6 races in a row where one of those 2 favs have saluted in a row - Easy come easy go I suppose (even in sim mode) :). Todays high was +$256 and as we speak the bot is on +$104 :(

Getting back to the bot. I think I can implement something like what you are saying using only 1 bot as my bot has the ability to back or lay different favs.

Can you please let me know what the best setting would be to do it on 1 bot? I believe you say to BACK the 1st fav with a fixed stake of $12. Does the price matter? Is there a ceiling? The other bot would lay the 1st fav for $30 liability. But what about combining them with one bet? How would that work? What would I do?

If it's a saver bet then what about laying to $10 liability (or something) so that the 2nd and 3rd fav may then pay for the loss if the 1st fav wins?

Do you know what I mean?

(A lot of questions there, sorry) :rolleyes:

Ocho
I am only swimming here. I put it here as a contribution and hoped some feedback from the resident Gurus. The backing bet on the fav is a sacrifical bet to soften the ups and downs of the laying the three favs. The greater the amount the more you give away. I looked at a target of $30 and that was too high. I looked at a variable based on the odds and that was too hard to implement. So I figured that $12 would cover most ranges. The best return is only laying the top three if top =<$4. When I run my bot live it is not getting the three bets on and then I have the problem of multiple bets. If I could just be sure of getting the three lays matched then I would set and forget and just do the necessary each day to ensure that it is operating. Beton

Thanks Beton.

I will trial laying the 1st fav to $10 liab and the 2nd & 3rd favs to $30 liab but it will be a no bet race if the fav is over $4. This will be done on one bot. I'll try it on the UK races tonight and then on the Aussie races tomorrow to see how it looks.

I know you're only putting it out there for us but what do you think about laying the 1st fav for a $10 liability or have I totally missed the point (the point being I'm trying to use only one bot for the system)?

I think what you will find is that the races where the is 2nd fav <=4.50 will work strongest with what you are trying to do.

Also where the 1st fav is approx 2.50 & less.

Another way is add up the outlay for the 2nd & 3rd Fav
Then divide that figure by the Favs fractional odds to give us the amt to put on the Fav so it breaks even if it should win.

Example
Lay Bet 2nd & 3rd to say $30 Liab
2.88---O/L 9.22----Liab - break even
3.65---O/L 11.32---Liab - $14.65
5.90---O/L 6.12 ---Liab -$9.44

Total O/L $26.66

This makes the bet look like a 1/1 proposition as opposed to just taking the 2nd & 3rd fav on their own which would be double the Liab.

The Ocho,

I was alluding to the horse in the race with the shortest price, is often very good value with a very good chance.

An example on Friday there was a harness horse that closed at $1.70 on the tote and ticked all the boxes form wise, I managed average odds of $2.68!
Another example, is horses real short with the bookies, say $1.10 or $1.20, I've often secured $1.25 or $1.50 respectively.

While you may not win much, these sort of percentages on a regular basis, provide a nice profit and pay for commission.

I like to look at good overlays on hot pots, those that are not value, at say $1.15 or $1.25 (respectively) I like to lay.

But it also depends on the money on track, not all overlays are value, some are an indication that something else is being heavily supported.

Weeding out the good from the bad is the key here.

Thanks Chrome Prince. That certainly makes more sense but of course then you would need to be in front of the computer all day and it wouldn't be automatic (oh well, we can't have it all...lol).

Bhagwan. That is starting to make more sense but, again, you would need to be in front of the computer to work out how much to place on each 1st fav to break even on it.

There must be a way of generally coming out even on the 1st fav apart from backing and laying it on 2 different bots.

By the way, the UK races last night ended -$88 but the culprit last night was the 2nd fav being -127 and with the 3rd fav winning a few the total losses from these 2 picks was -160 (big turn around from the Aus races yesterday).

The 1st fav didn't win many races and ended up +72 at laying to $10 liab which means that the system would of finished ahead last night if all 3 favs were laid to $30 liability rather than just the 2nd & 3rd favs having a $30 liab and the 1st fav having a $10 liab.

The 1st fav example above though would not be typical because not many won last night. I'll give the above specs a go in today's Aus races.

Your right about the Favs falling over in the UK last night .

I counted nearly 20 in a row falling over, which can happen, but it is very rare.

There where heaps of 2nd & 3rd favs getting up, which I guess is to be expected, if the Fav is getting rolled all night.

There were severeal which got to 1.04 at the finish & they still got rolled.

Funny ahh.

Laying the fav at $1.05 in running last night using the minimum $5 bet would of gone alright then :rolleyes: (trying to find something that will work with $5 minimum stakes when I've not got much left in the bank - $20 :().

-$80.60 today for laying the 1st fav to $10 liab and 2nd & 3rd favs to $30 liab.

The same as the UK last night the first fav actually lost some races and won +$42 if just laying those ??? So if laid to $30 liab it probably would have broken even today. Looks like the favs haven't been following the script.

With favourites falling over the other day, the script was followed the next day with more favourites winning than normal.
This is the rollercoaster effect which follows with predictable regularity.

Beton - some input.

I have been away for a few days so just picking up with what's happening and here is some input on Laying the first 3. These figures are based on BSP results so there may be some drifters and some firmers which may not have been picked up in real time, but it should provide a guide. Also this does not include BACKING the favourite - it is just laying the top 3.

Period 1st - 12th June - Lay Top 3:

1st Fav: $2 - $3: Profit $194.05

1st Fav: $2 - $4: Profit $405.47

... I think you may be onto something here - well done and thanks for sharing it with us ... Fred

Betfair laying
 

Rules call for a minimum $30 liability, so using that 10:30 ratio you would have to lay the fave to lose $30 and the others to lose $90.

Gerry

Fred
Thanks
I have done a bit more breakdown on this. Backing the fav has a slight benefit when the fav is under $2 but a definate disadvantage over $2.
The majority of the races are in the $2 to $3.50 range. Beton

... more info

If the range is $2.00 $3.50 then the profit is $284.09.

Can I suggest another 2 rules???

a) Do not sit in front of the computer and watch!
b) Review results on a weekly basis!

.. I would enjoy it but it is a roller coaster ride - and I think you are on a winner with this one. Fred

-$131.75 today for laying the 1st fav to $10 liab and 2nd & 3rd favs to $30 liab.

I can't see how this can be working 4legs and beton.

Gerry, you're right but I was just trying something that could be bet on one bot and that came out roughly even should the 1st fav win and that ratio seemed to be the one as the losses have only been small when the 1st fav won.

I'm only doing it in simulation mode and don't actually have any money to do it in real mode but thought I'd give it a go but the losses are outstripping the gains so not sure what others are doing that I'm not doing.

Right lets look at the figures.
Lay the top 3 to $30 liability. For this exercise we assume the 2nd fav at $4 (about average) and the third fav at $6(ditto)
Top fav $2
1st wins then -$30 + $10 + $6 we lose -$14.
2nd wins then -$30 + $30 + $6 we are +$6
3rd wins then -$30 +$30 + $10 we gain +$10
4th plus wins we gain +$30 +$10 +$6 = +$46
At $2 the strike rates are 42% 20% and 13% respectfully.
Thus per 100 races we lose -$588 on the fav, but gain +$120 on the 2nd and +$130 on the 3rd and we have 4th plus at 25% thus we gain +$1150. Total gain $812. With similar working this is +$1227 at $1.50, +$1175 at $1.70, $521 at $2.50, $418 at $3.00, +$453 at $3.50, +$465 at $4.00 and +$337 at $4.50. Race weighted the average should be about $500 per 100 races. Please note that at $2.50 you lose on the three top favs laying but have a 30% SR with the 4th plus.

Bhagwan HELP Please what settings would you use with Betbotpro with this method.
Thanks Beton

Hi Beton,
If using BetBotPro

You are saying that your bot is making random bets, that are out of your control if so , it sounds like the program needs re-downloading.
It sounds like the set up program was not saved to Desktop first, before extracting files.

Make sure you have the licence number they emailed to you.
Then re-download from the members section.
Make sure you Save the Download program to say Desktop or Documents first, before extracting files, otherwise the program wont work properly.
I would then go to Desktop to open then do the Extracting of files, just to make sure things work.
Make sure you delete the existing program totally , that includes the recycle bin.
If you have any issues , contact Mark at BBP

Use these settings to make sure all your 3 selections get matched.

Set box at bottom 1st Fav
Set box underneath 3 (targeting 3 runners)

Max No. of bets 3
Min No. of bets 3
This means the bets will only go on if all 3 are matched.

Adjusted Bet Ticks +4 (if Laying) (-4 if Backing)
This is used to allow for any drop in prices as the bets are going on at the same time.

EXTRAS (In Actions box at top LHS) 1st Fav <= 4.00
This will now only target races where the Fav is <=4.00

Thanks Bhagwan
I will do this tomorrow. This is then laying to a liability but not SP. How many seconds would you recommend and what bank would be required. winners losers and max win and loss would have to be disabled??
beton

Min/Max winners & losers can be disabled by setting to 0

Set market % to approx 107%
You don't want to be betting in any markets greater than this if multi-betting.

Bank should be 40 x Liability
So one does not get cold feet during the betting process.
e.g. $30 x 40 = 1200 bank

Reset Liab if we lose 30%

Set Stop loss at 30% of bank (optional)

Profit objective 2-5% of bank.

Seconds till jump - I will leave that up to you .
Usually its 20 secs & less.

Min/ Max runners .
I use 12-23 if multi-bet laying.

Hi Ocho - my figures were based on BSP results so I would expect a variation when doing actual figures as there would be firmers and drifters which would move in and out of the target range in the last few seconds. However I would expect this to be a good guide.

In relation to yesterday it was not a good day, and the BSP results showed a $58.68 Loss. Even with the BSP results it showed large swings on a daily basis. I should be able to pull out the daily totals so I will post those later today.

Fred

If we could all lay at Tote prices we'd make a fortune. But I'm pretty sure $2 shots on betfair don't win 42% of the time, remember a $2 shot on BF would be odds-on on the totes. Not saying you won't find an edge in your favour either, but expect a wild ride.