Days Since Last Start.
 

I've been looking at days since last start in conjunction with Don Scott's prices. Unfortunately I've only been able to check the last three day's racing.

The two rules are:

1) Under $3.00 in Don Scott's market.
2) Last start less then 14 days.

Over the three days there have been 12 selections for 5 winners for a TAB return of $27.00, and 9 placegetters for a return of $14.10. At this very early stage it looks promising, and maybe also with some logic providing his prices are not too inaccurate.

Today's selections:

Ballarat
1/3
6/3

Ballina
5/3

Rocky
2/1


Let's see how they go...

Not a bad result for the first day of the system.

From the four selections there was one winner of $7.00 and the other three selections finished second paying a total of $6.90.

Well done Michael.

Thats a good result.

It also shows that the other selection were close to the mark which is encouraging.

Well done Michaelg. It looks good already. Maybe you can have them for the win but also have an all-up/parlay bet for the place. You only lose the 1 unit if the horse losers but keep going all up for the place for 3 or 4 races in a row and you never know.

Yes, so far so good. If it continues I will consider all-ups/parlays.

Today's selections are:

Geelong
2/9
6/6

Ipswich
3/8

Dubbo
7/2

Taree
4/10

No worries michaelg. I'm in Victoria and only have a TAB account where I can't go all up or parlay unless the picks are at the same venue. Strange. Unless I'm doing something wrong?

I'm not certain but I think here in NSW we also can't have all-ups with multiple venues.

Not a bad day today. From the 5 selections there were two winners paying a total of $7.60, and four placegetters (the losing selection ran third in a NTD race) paying a total of $7.70.

Well done again michaelg. You could definitely be onto something. I hope you don't mind but I placed 50c the win on each selection just for the heck of it. :)

I can't find out but I think BF may have paid 3rd dividend for Geelong race 6 no 6 as there were initially 9 horses in the race but I can't find out if they would have done that.

http://racingform.betfair.com.au/market.php?mi=100379923

Scroll downto the % -- & see 208%
So only 2 div

I think they have changed now ie: doing the same as the totes.

Nice one yetagain Michael !!!

Betfair

Win Market

$158,484.40 (101.3%)

Place Market

$6,057.31 (208.5%0

I agree with Sharntee they only paid on two places.

Ocho, although you may not be able to obtain all ups on the tote, you can, of course, obtain the same on Betfair manually.

Ok thanks OM Sharntee. I looked there but I didn't see that 200%. I don't know why they just don't list the actual results.

Yes thanks Merriguy. My bot can even do that but I'm using it to test it on something else.

Today's selections are:

Belmont
4/7

Kembla
1/2
2/4
6/9

Moonee Valley
1/6

Morphetville
3/7
5/2
6/8

Rosehill
8/10

Toowoomba
4/8


Here's hoping...

Yesterday's 10 selections produced four winners for a return of $11.40 giving a profit of $1.40 which is a POT of 14%. However betting S.P. on Betfair the return including their 5% commission was $13.46 for a profit of $3.46 which is a POT of 34%.

Place betting lost $1.60.

Today's selections:

Gawler
2/3
8/10

Hobart
8/2

Kalgoorlie
6/7

Moruya
3/2
5/8
6/1

Scone
7/5
8/6

Sun Coast
3/2

Warracknabeal
5/5
6/6

As far as I can tell these would be the selections for today:

Warrnambool (VIC) R1 No5 GOTTA TAKE CARE
Warrnambool (VIC) R2 No6 WELLS
Warrnambool (VIC) R3 No8 OMBRA SIERRA

Hi, The Ocho.

I agree with your selections for today.

Yesterday was a bad day. 12 selections for 2 winners paying a total of $7.40 ($8.54 with Betfair's S.P.) and 4 placegetters for a return of $7.10.

Hopefully today will recoup yesterday's losses.

Well done michaelg. Another very impressive result with 2 firsts and a second :)

It's still in front, in fact it's never been in the red (until tomorrow?)

Since listing the selections from last Thursday there have been 33 bets for 10 winners giving a profit of $6.50 (would be even better with S.P.) but a loss of $0.10 with Place betting.

So far so good.

Good one Michaelg,
As usual logic ,simplicity and good ratings.
Will add this to my Spot Play methods.
Cheers
darky

Would Warrnambool R6/7 have been a selection?

Bhagwan, you're right. It ran third paying $1.60, ($1.90 on Unitab).

However, if The Ocho and I both missed it I would not be surprised if its price was $3.00-plus before the race and only changed afterwards to $2.10.

You could be right there .

They do tend to have a habit of changing stuff after the event mainly due ,
I believe, to late scratchings.

One selection today:

Townsville
1/3

Are you noting the TC that they are rated for ?

Darky, I don't look at the track conditions. I'm hoping D.S. is more or less accurate even though his market is framed a few days prior without knowing the eventual t. condition.

Hope you didn't back yesterday's selection because it was unplaced.

Today's selections:

Murray bridge
5/2
6/2

Hi michaelg

As far as I can make out the picks today are:
Murray Bridge
5/2 only

Newcastle
6/2
7/3
8/6

Although I did do them earlier and Newcastle race 7 was not a pick then but is now.

Thanks, Ocho. You're selections are correct.

I was mistaking N'cle with/and M. Bridge. On my records I knew I had made a mistake but thought I had corrected it. You will notice on no.25 on this thread that I edited it - unfortunately it was not corrected. Last time this happened it proved to be a profitable day - hopefully this will also happen again today.

Gees Michaelg,
How did I miss that race 6 H 2 Darci Be Good (A moral to get ya on the winning path.)

Yes, it was a good winner, can't lose today on Win betting. Sorry you missed it. From tomorrow I'll show the names of the selections.

Only one winner from yesterday's four selections, paying $4.40, and two placegetters paying $2.80.

Today's selections:

Newcastle
2/13 - Price Of China
5/3 - Midnight At Ascot
6/2 - Sweetest Melody

Northam
1/3 - Spirit Of Sandra

Northam should be 1/13 Spirit of Sandra :)

Thanks, Ocho.

I think I need glasses or should check more carefully. Will do so from tomorrow.

Let's hope the selections perform as hoped.

Made a little again today michaelg. It's keeping it's head above water (I think).

How are the outgoings and ingoings going? :D

The method's now been going for 8 days.

There's been 12 winners from 42 selections for a NSW TAB POT of 15.9% (not bad) but a LOT of 3.4% on Place betting.

It's shown a profit in 6 of the 8 days.

Hopefully its not just going through an unusually good but a normal (or particularly bad) period.

Today's selections are:

Geelong
2/7 - Miss Brilliance
6/6 - Miss Noverre

Ipswich
2/3 - Raffles Miss
5/4 - Gran Torino
7/5 - Tizzy Lizzie

Taree
4/2 - Analie's Daughter

Interestingly, five of the six selections have a "female" theme. I wonder if this means anything?

It appears the time you look at the R&S site has a fair bit to do with the selections.
This morning out of interest - probably 8:30ish I had a look and neither Taree 4/2 or Geelong 2/7 was a selection (the others were) - but I just looked now and they are!

That is probably due to scratchings as I have seen the same thing happen.

4legs,

the two races you mention had scratchings in them. As they would not have been shown at 8.30a.m. they would have affected Don Scott's market.

I will have keep this mind because it's not unusual for the R & S website to be tardy in loading scratchings. I've seen some meetings that at 1.p.m the scratchings still haven't been recorded. Yet they've been shown on the TAB for a few hours.

Thanks for that - it now makes sense.

So in reality you would have to make sure all scratchings are in before you used the DS ratings.

It will be interesting to see what time the scratchings go up on a Saturday as there are about 12 meetings tomorrow.

Auto scratch!
 

4legs, you can always apply the scratchings yourself on the R&S site. Just click the ticks and press 'submit'. michaelg is right about their tardiness. Some days they don't get applied at all!