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The Roller Coaster
Laying on Betfair can be one heck of a ride
Lets test the following races Betfair price (Lay) at jump<$6.00 Warwick Farm Race 1 No 7 Vader Race 4 No 5 Dragons Keep 7 Redhande Jill Race 5 No 1 Dehere Hunter 2 Prince Kristen Race 6 No 9 Dawnfire Dancer Race 8 No 10 Honourable Aussie Ballina Race 2 No 6 Pretty Tess Race 4 No 3 Da Baker Race 5 No 7 Federer Express 11 Che Sara Sara Race 6 No 8 Court Success Morphettville Race 5 No 5 Masterr Beckett 8 Sono Piccolo Race 6 No 6 Cruzero 7 Penzengi Race 8 No 3 Glancing 5 Mean Jean 7 Arakazel Wangaratta Race 6 No 7 Junee Boy 8 Prussian Dancer Race 7 No 1 Undercurrant 6 Dashing Shadow 8 Final Encounter Race 8 No 1 Canny Come Inn |
The Roller Coaster
Add the following:-
Warwick Farm Race 4 No 3 Riebeck Race 5 No 5 Maximian Race 6 No 12 Don't put it there Morphettville Race 5 No 7 Quick Thoughts Ballina Race 6 No 5 One Carat Racer |
The Roller Coaster
Update:-
Quite a ride, didn,t pan out the way we would of liked but still a good ride. Positives:- Vader Pretty Tess Dehere Hunter Federer Express Court Success Prussian Dancer Cruziero Dashing shadow Canny Come Inn Negatives:- Riebeck (2.2) Master Beckett (5.2) Junee Boy (2.45) Undercurrent (3.5) Will continue for balance of month, aim to increase bank by 40% Start Bank = $1000 Unit = 1% = $10 Positives = + $85.5 (after BF com) Negative = - $93.5 (12+42+14.5+25) Loss = - $8 New Bank = $992 |
The Roller Coaster
BF Price (Lay) < $6.00 at Jump
Goulburn Race 2 No 3 Im Mary Too Race 3 No 4 Cheerful Dane Race 4 No 6 Tempo Rouge Race 5 No 1 Hey Porter Race 7 No 2 Toby Race 7 No 6 Senor Dash Terang Race 3 No 8 Playawedge Race 6 No 5 Another Gear Race 6 No 11 Napash Race 7 No 6 On My Command Race 7 No 12 Kings Demand Race 8 No 6 Brilliant Park Townsville Race 2 No 1 Mazuka Race 3 No 5 Alotta Spur Race 5 No 4 Rock Alert Race 5 No 6 Brandy Beau Race 6 No 6 Molongle Race 7 No 7 Breakers Path Race 8 No 1 Grand Silence Hope to atone, Current Bank $992 (Bet Unit 1%=$10) |
A profit would have been easily made out of that lot using the...
Black Box Staking Plan. |
The Roller Coaster
Quote:
Thankyou, for the input, Bhagwan. Currently trialing to see if it stand on it's own feet. It has been said before, that if it can,t stand-up to flat stakes then, no amount of agressive staking will turn it. I do appreciate all input which may help and will of course check all avenues. |
The Roller Coaster
Amend: Terang Race 6 No 11 Napash
Delete as is not a contender |
The Roller Coaster
WELL!!! I doubt anything could of turned us around to-day
Bet Unit = 1%(Original Bank $1000) Opening Bank $922.00 G2 No 3 (2.9) -19..........$903.00 To2 No 1 (3.6) -26..........$877.00 To3 No 5 (3.1) -21..........$856.00 G4 No 6 +9.5................$865.50 Te7 No 6 (5.4) -4.4.........$821.50 Te7 No12 +9.5...............$831.00 G7 No 6 +9.5...............$840.50 To8 No 1 +9.5...............$850.00 We move forward in hope of an improving day |
The Roller Coaster
New Day, Wednesday 5/10/2011
Slight change, will reduce the max Lay bet to $5.00 Will also list contenders in race time order. Bet unit = 1% (Original Bank $1000) =$10... Current Bank $850 Belmont Race 1 No 1 Absolute Cracker (pp3.0) time 12:33 Ballarat Race 2 No 3 Tango Express (pp5.5) time 1:35 No 7 Podsanp (pp5.5) No 8 Your Grace (pp5.5) Canterb Race 3 No 1 Fine Drop (pp6.5) time 2:26 No 2 Nextanix (pp3.2) Gawler Race 5 No 2 Handsome As (pp5.5) time 2:58 No 3 Walcourt (pp7.0) Belmont Race 5 No 5 Lisetta (pp5.0) time 3:10 No 11 Caldo (pp2.8) Gawler Race 6 No 6 Sono Piccolo (pp3.0) time 3:38 Belmont Race 6 No 1 Doutable (pp4.0) time 3:45 Bathurst Race 5 No 3 Toranaga (pp5.0) time 3:53 Ballarat Race 6 No 2 Bedouin Express (pp5.0) time 4:00 No 13 Catch a Heart (pp3.5) DoombenRace 6 No 4 Martha's Vineyard(pp4.0) time 4:08 Gawler Race 7 No 2 Encosta Delight (pp6.0) time 4:18 Canterb Race 6 No 3 Rain Drum (pp2.8) time 4:20 No 5 Ridotto (pp5.5) Belmont Race 7 No 1 The Widder (pp4.6) time 4:21 DoombenRace 7 No 3 Gotcha (pp5.0) time 4:48 No 5 Wave Dancing (pp5.0) Belmont Race 8 No 1 Come Flirt w/me (pp3.0) time 4:55 No 2 Prince Kodiak (pp4.6) Ballarat Race 8 No 1 Simpre Arriba (pp3.5) time 5:20 pp is obtained from ************** |
The Roller Coaster
Update:
Scratchings: Belmont R6 Doutable Add: Belmont R6 No 12 Cooks Landing Add: Belmont R4 No 6 Grey Jubilee Add: Belmont R7 No 1 Elljay Scratchings: Gawler R 6 Sono Piccolo/ Race 7 Encosta Delight Scratchings: Canterbury R3 Nextanix Add; Doomben Race 2 No 7 Ten Seconds (pp1.8) Add: Bathurst Race 3 No 1 July Opera (pp6.4) Add: Ballarat Race 6 No 12 Democrat (pp9) Add: Ballarat Race 7 No 11 Red Rain (pp3.8) Appologies, forgot about time diff for WA |
The Roller Coaster
Update, Another up and down ride, not quite getting on top
Current Bank.................$850 Positives: Absolute Cracker The Widder Martha's Vineyard Gotcha Ridotto Tango Express Catch a Heart Simpre Arriba July Opera Return $85.50 (after BF Comm) Negatives: Lisetta 3.9 -29 Come Flirt with me 3.5 -25 Rain Drum 2.9 - 19 Ten Seconds 2.6 -16 Red Rain 4.4 -34 Positives + $85.5 Negatives - $123 Loss -$37.5 New Bank $812.5 |
If you reversed the prices would you be in front ? or would the commission also kill a profit that way ? It hasn't been many selections yet so it could easily bounce back yet.
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If you mean Back the lays and lay the Backs, I think it would have been close to even(For to-day at least)I havn't ckecked the back prices for the lays so it is only a guess at this stage |
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Yeah that is exactly what I meant. |
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Reverse analogy: 3/10/11 $90 out $86 in Loss $4 4/10/11 $40 out $99 in Profit $59 5/10/11 $90 out $97 in Profit $7 Food for thought |
The Roller Coaster
Thursday 6/10/11
Lay Bets Bank $812.5 Bet Unit = 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 Bendigo Race 2 No 1 Ra Ikane (pp2.3) Race 2 No 7 She's got a Secret (pp5) Rockhampton Race 1 No 5 Misty Rocket (pp5.5) Race 2 No 2 Boze (pp4) Port lincoln Race 2 No 3 Sari Bayir (pp1.6) Rockhampton Race 3 No 3 Black Morgan (pp4.3) Race 3 No 4 Rogerrab (pp3.8) Race 3 No 5 White Cap (pp6.5) Race 4 No 1 Schrapnel Gully (pp2) Port Lincoln Race 5 No 2 Takookachook (pp2.25) Bendigo Race 6 No 1 Perfect Pecs (pp3.8) Race 6 No 8 Surface Tension (pp7.1) Gosford Race 6 No 2 Quickmatch (pp4.1) Race 7 No 1 Rebel Prince (pp6) Port Licoln Race 7 No 4 Savage Monkey (pp7) Rockhampton Race 7 No 4 It's Elementary (pp7.5) Race 7 No 6 Hussana (pp4.6) Race 8 No 7 Desperate Woman (pp9) |
The Roller Coaster
Update; Still trying to turn this around
Current Bank............$812.50 Positives x4@$9.5....+$38.00 Negatives 1x$3.1......-$21.00 (Perfect Pecs) Negatives 1x$5.........-$40.00 (Hussana) New Bank................$789.50 for UB, reverse analogy Out $40 In $61 Profit $21 |
The Roller Coaster
In order to get selections on before race time I have to post before
scratchings, as I am not able to access my comp before 12noon most days. Because Today, (Fri) Sat & Sun could have a huge No of candidates, I will have to compress the data. Fri 7/10/2011 Pt Mc R2No4 Ipswich R3 No 2 Sale R 5 No3/6 Nowra R4 No 2 Pt Mac R5 No 5 Ipswich R4 No 1 Sale R 6 No 5 Pt Mc R 6 No 3/7 Sale R 7 No 1/9 Nowra R 6 No 9 Ipswich R6 No 3/7/11 Sale R 8 No 3 Nowra R 7 No 5/7 Pt Mc R 8 No 5/8/9 Ipswich R 7 No 6/7 M Valley R2 No 1/2 M Valley R3 No 1/2/3 M Valley R4 No 1 M Valley R5 No 3 M Valley R6 No 8/12 M Valley R7 No 3/4 Current Bank $789.50 Bet Unit = 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 |
I have found laying the price range 3.50-5.90 works well on those Radio TAB and guest tipster selections where they have an asterisk at top of their fist selection number.
That asterisk represents their specials for the day. I notice their specials sometimes get up if <=3.40 But fall over horrible if 3.50-5.90 Maybe this price 35.0-5.90 range could work for your selection process. |
That's meant to read 3.50 not 35.0
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The Roller Coaster
Update:
Add; Ipswich R4 No 7 (All Fear) Scr; Sale R8 No 3 (My Survivor) Add; Sale R8 No 17 (Agasha) Scr; Pt Mc R 8 No 6 (Abu Dhabi Gold) Scr; M Valley R6 No 15 (Kiola) |
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Thanks Bhagwan, I will look into that aspect of pricing. However, I will continue thru the month as is. had already Made an adjustment from <$6max to <$5max |
The Roller Coaster
Update:
Current Bank............$789.50 Positives x10@$9.5+ $ 95.00 Negatives 1x4.6.....- $ 36.00 (Meghalaya) Negatives 1x 2.7....- $ 17.00 (Spirit Soul) New Bank.................$831.50 an actual Profit on the day ($42) for UB, reverse analogy Out $100 In $68.85 Loss... $31.15 6/10......................Profit...$21.00 5/10......................Profit...$ 7.00 4/10......................Profit...$59.00 3/10......................Loss....$4.00 Current Bank....................$1051.85 We will call the 'reverse analogy' The UB Train in honour of UselessBetter and see how many carriages we can add till end of month. I will run it in conjunction with The Roller Coaster and see which fairs the better. |
The Roller Coaster
Saturday 8/10/2011
Morphettville R 1 No 2/5 Rosehill R1 No 7 E Farm R1 No 6 Pakenh R3 No 8/10 Pt Mc R7 No 4 Morph R5 No 1/3 Albury R3 No 1 G Cst R4 No 1/4 Pakenh R5 No 2/4 E Farm R5 No 1 Albury R4 No 3/4 Pakenh R6 No 3/10 E Farm R6 No 2/3 Caulf R9 No 8 Morph R7 No 4 G Cst R6 No 1/8 RosehillR7 no 4/8 Pakenh R7 No 13 K Gran R8 No 3/4/9 Albury R6 No 1/3/8 Morph R8 No 2/11 G Cst R7 No 1/7 E Farm R8 No 4.10 Toow R2 No 1/5 Morph R9 No 6 Toow R5 No 8 Bellm R8 No 5 Current Bank..........$831.50 UB Train Bank.........$1051.85 |
Lots of selections today. Good luck with it :)
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The Roller Coaster
Update:
Current Bank......................$831.50 ............UB Train Bank...$1051.85 Positives 12x $9.5...............$114.00 Negatives 12X$10.........-$120.00 Negative 1x2.8...................-$18.00 Positive 1x 2.8..............+$18.00 Negative 1x4.3...................-$33.00 Positive 1x4.2...............+$32.00 Negative 1x 2.3..................-$13.00 Positive 1x 2.3..............+$13.00 Negative 1x 4.4..................-$34.00 Positive 1x 4.3..............+$33.00 New Bank..........................$847.50 Newe Bank...................$1023.05 Slow climb up the incline for the Roller Coaster However, the UB Train has lost a couple of carraiges |
The Roller Coaster
Sunday 9/10/2011
Opening Bank.......................$847.50 UB Train Bank...$1023.05 Unit Bet (Lay) 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 (UB Train Back Bet =$10) Max Lay Liability $5.00 Max Back -Alt of lay( all at 10 sec to jump time) Cranbourne Race 1 No 1 Sun Coast Race 1 No 1 Cranbourne Race 3 No 3/5 Cranbourne Race 4 No 11/13 Coonamble Race 3 No 7 Sun Coast Race3 No 2/5/6 Devenport Race 3 No 1/6 Cranbourne Race 5 No 5/6/7 Coonamble Race 4 No 3/4 Devenport Race 4 No 1/2/3/4/7 Cranbourne Race 6 No 10 Coonamble Race 5 No 3/6 Tatura Race 4 No 2/5 Devenport Race 5 No 5 Hawkesbury Race 5 No 3/7 Penola Race 5 No 1/4 Coonamble Race 6 No 1/2/3/11 Sun Coast Race 6 No 1/3/7 Hawkesbury Race 6 No 4/6 Penola Race 6 No 2 Coonamble Race 7 No 1/2/8 Sun Coast Race 7 No 6 Tatura Race 6 No 1/2/37 Devenport Race 7 No 3 HawkesburyRace 7 No 7 Penola Race 7 No 12 CranbourneRace9 No 3/15 Coonamble Race 8 No 1/4/6/7 Sunshine Race 8 No 5/8 Tatura Race 7 No 7 Devenport Race 8 No 2/5/6 Penola Race 8 No 6 Cranbourne Race 10 No 2/6/11 Coonamble Race 9 No 2/10/12 Sunshine Race 9 No 1/6/7 Geraldton Race 4 No 3 Geraldton Race 6 No 4/7/9 Geraldton Race 7 no 5/7 |
The Roller Coaster
Update: Scrastchings
Cranbourne R 3No 3 Cranbourne R4 No 13 Cranbourne R 9 No 3 Hawkesbury R5 No 3/7 Sunshine Coast R 6 No 1 Sunshine Coast R 7 No 6 Sunshine R 8 No 5/8 Tatura R 6 No 3 Penola R 7 No 12 Devenport R 8 No 2 Coonamble R 9 No 2 |
The Roller Coaster
Update:
Current Bank..........................$847.50 Current Bank...............$1023.05 Positives 14x $9.5...................$133.00 Negatives 14X$10..........-$140.00 Hot Flash..1x $3.8..................-$ 28.00 Hot Flash....1x$3.7.........+$27.00 T Kisses....1x $3.5..................-$25.00 T Kisses ......1x$3.4........+$24.00 C Mcleod...1x $2.6..................-$16.00 C Mcleod......1x$2.5........+$15.00 Dbl Halo....1x $3.5..................-$25.00 Dbl Halo.......1x$3.4........+$24.00 Altonio......1x $2.9..................-$19.00 Altonio.........1x$2.8........+$18.00 My Quilter 1x $3.2..................-$22.00 My Quilter.....1x$3.1........+$21.00 Hvy Roller 1x $3.8..................-$28.00 Hvy Roller......1x$3.7.......+$27.00 New Bank..............................$817.00 New Bank.....................$1039.05 A slip on the downside for the Roller Coaster A carriage back for the UB Train. A very slooooow day, particularily with the DELAYS |
The Roller Coaster
Monday 10/10/2011
Opening Bank.......................$817.50 UB Train Bank...$1039.05 Unit Bet (Lay) 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 (UB Train Back Bet =$10) Max Lay Liability $5.00 Max Back -Alt of lay( all at 10 sec to jump time) Cessnock R 1 No 3 The annilator (pp3.9) Donald R 2 No 2 Viper Room (pp13.5) Leeton R 4 No 4 Redlingo (pp11) R4 No 7 Just a Hiccup (pp4.5) Cessnock R 4 No 4 Military Shrew (pp2.6) Donald R 5 No 1 Flaming Moe (pp7.5) Leeton R 5 No 4 Mrs Menzies (pp8.2) R 5 No 6 Club Zero (pp5) Cessnock R 5 No 6 Shizuson (pp17) Donald R 6 No 3 Barterer (pp15) R 6 No 7 Talia Mia (pp5.3) R6 No 9 Lascelles (pp8.5) Donald R7 No 7 Skimalong (pp5) R7 No 9 Strum (pp21) Cessnock R7 No 7 Catcha Rising Star(pp12) R7 No 8 Divine Klair (pp6.5) Donald R8 No 3 Palconi (pp6.8) |
The Roller Coaster
Update:
First race at Donald should read R 3 No 2 Viper Room |
The Roller Coaster
Update;
Opening Bank..................$817.50 UB Train Bank......$1039.05 Positives 2x $9.50 ...........+$19.00.Negatives 2x$10..-$20.00 Red Lingo ($4.7)............-$37.00...Red Lingo ($4.6).. +$36.00 Mil Shrew ($2.6)............-$16.00...Mil shrew ($2.6) ...+$16.00 Skimalong($4.7)............-$37.00...Skimalong ($4.6) ..+$36.00 New Bank......................$$746.50 New Bank.............$1092.55 Downhill slide continues for the Roller Coaster. Carriages back for the UB Train |
The Roller Coaster
Tuesday 11/10/2011
Current Bank(RC).................$$746.50 Current Bank(UB)........$1092.55 Unit Bet (Lay) 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 (UB Train Back Bet =$10) Max Lay Liability $5.00 Max Back -Alt of lay( all at 10 sec to jump time) Grafton R4 No 4 Dynamic Spy (pp4.6) Echuca R6 No 10Fantastic Porscha (pp10) R6 No 12 Golden ascent (pp7.5) Townsville R3 No 6 No limitation (pp6.5) Grafton R5 No 3 Just amaizin (pp2.9) Echuca R7 No 2 Orbicat (pp6.5) R7 No 5 I'm Mysterious (pp8.5) Echuca R8 No 2 Happyendo (pp8.50 R8 No 3 Resovre (pp5) R8 No 11 Winchester Atms (pp7) R8 No 13 Racer's Dream (pp10) Townsville R5 No 12 Miss Rubenstein (pp6.5) GraftonR7 No 8 Storm Fabulador (pp8.5) R7 No 11 Tzanann (pp10) Townsville Race 7 No 4 Unluckyforsum (pp14) |
I have been dabbling with this crazy idea of backing & laying the same horse in the same sequence of races .
It is not quite right yet. Further input would be welcome. This is how it goes. Lay bet flat 5 units to fall over if price is =>6.20 . Lay bet 10 units if price is <=$6.00 Back bet is 20 units with an increment of 10% on the last losing Back bet, Allow a max run of 6 outs then start again if no winner picked. Also start again if winner is picked. The general idea is to try & minimise ones total outlay if possible Its the losing bets that do the damage & punters should try & think in terms of Liability, whether its Win or Lay betting, rather than just profit all the time. Because if the looses are minimised , the profits will generally follow. The Lay bets try to pay half of the Back bet losses & soften the blow a little especially on a bad run , if that's possible First bet is always a Back bet say $20, with zero Lay bet made. Second bet would be a Back bet $10 +10% due to previous loss . Plus a $5.00 flat Lay bet to go towards the loss of the 1st bet. We wish to hit 3.5% a day, then stop , or option to continue for the day if you feel you can hit another 3.50% on the day. Example of a non winner series. Back----Lay 20------ No bet on 1st race. 22-------10 24-------5 26--------5 29-------10 32-------5 ect. |
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Hi Bhagwan, My Selections from yesterday Cessnock R 1 No 3.......Back 20(loss) Leeton R 4 No 4......Back 22(4.6)..Return 101.2... Lay10(4.7)..Loss(37.00) If we Stop here; 101.2-20-22-37= 22.2 Profit contunue; Cessnock R 4 No 4..Back 20(2.6)..Return 52.00 If we stop here; 52.00 20= 32.00 profit continue: Leeton R 5 No 6.....Back 20 (Loss) Donald R6 No 9......Back 22 (Loss)............Lay 10....Return 10 Donald R7 No 7......Back 24 (4.6)..Return 110.4..Lay 10(4.7)..Loss(37.00) If we stop here; 110.4-2--22-24-37= 7.4 Profit Each stage would have resulted in a profit All stages combined in a profit 22.2+32.00+7.4 = 61.6 But will it hold up? |
The Roller Coaster
update:
Current Bank(RC)...................$746.50 Current Bank(UB)........$1092.55 Positives 4 x $9.5...................$38.00 Negatives 4 x $10.........-$40.00 Racer's Dream ($4.9).............-$39.00 Racer's Dream (4.7).....+$37.00 New Bank..............................$745.50New Bank.....................$1089.55 Little action to-day |
The Roller Coaster
Wednesday 12/10/2011
Current Bank(RC).................$$745.50 Current Bank(UB)........$1089.55 Unit Bet (Lay) 1% (original Bank $1000) = $10 (UB Train Back Bet =$10) Max Lay Liability $5.00 Max Back -Alt of lay( all at 10 sec to jump time) Caulfield R 1 No 2/3/6 Randwick R1 No 1 Randwick R 2 No 3/4/6 M Bridge R 4 No 9 Caulfield R4 No 3/7/9 Randwick R3 No 7 Caulfield R5 No 3/7 Doombem R3 No 9 Randwick R4 No 1/2/4 M Bridge R6 No 1/3/8/9 Randwick R5 No 3 Cailfield R7 No 12/16 Doomben R5 No 1/8/11 Randwick R6 No 1/7 M Bridge R8 No 2/5/10 Caulfield R8 No 2/6 Doomben R6 No 5 Randwick R7 No 9/10 M Bridge R 9No 6/8 Doomben R7 No 9/14 Northam R 6 No 3 Northaam R 8 No 3/5/8 |
Hi Place2Win
It will hold up if we can hit 1 winner in 6 (17%SR) If the lot dont ever win , our total loss will be approx 60% less than we would have normally have lost if win only betting. The average bet size on the 6 bet sequence is 25.50 units x 6 = 153 units less 6 x say 10units ret = 60unit ret 90 - 153 = -63unit loss Thats a 90 unit difference Saving of approx 60% on win only bets. Therefore less winners & less liability required to recover. Remember , the idea is to reduce our Banks Liability exposure. Max leverage is on the 2nd & 3rd bets of the 6 bet sequence. Plus it adds a bit more fun to the process. If you hit a winner with one of your 9.00+ selections , you will be laughing like a Hyena. Has the selection process hit many $9.00+ winners? |
My maths is ballsed up .
Its meant to read 60-153= -90units Saving of 40% on straight level stakes, |
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To-day Randwick R 1 No1 Hendricus (1.68) x 20 = 33.6 Profit 13.6 (Stop) or continue; Caulfield R 4 No 9 Cosmonaut (3.30) x 20 66.00 Profit 46.00 (stop) or continue; Randwick R 3 No 7 Mc Bull (2.10) x 20 = -20.00 ( Loss) M Bridge R8 No 5 Belfast Boy (5.5) x 22 = -22.00 (Loss) Lay 10 rtn 10 Caulfield R 8 No 6 Facile Tiger (5.4) x 24 = 129.6 Profit 63.6 Lay 10 rtn(-45) Overall 13.6 + 46.00 +63.6 +10 -45 = 88.2 Profit All selections are from The Roller Coaster System where a single selection resulted. |
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