Lay Outsider System
 

I've returned to one of my faves - that is laying outsiders.

This one is different to my other ones because it provides much more action.

Over the past seven days there's been 127 selections for 127 smiles which is an average of 18 per day, and it doesn't interfere with my laying the field method.

I'll list the selections and hope the Forum Curse does not attack it.

Toowoomba
4/7
6/12
7/13
8/5

Hawkesbury
2/12

Geelong
6/3
7/3

Albany
4/1
6/10
7/11

Good luck with it MG.

But outsiders :eek:

I know, laying outsiders can be heart-attack material.

But doing this has made me a fair bit of money. On Monday I transferred $8,000 from my Betfair to my bank account. Maybe I've been very lucky, and that could now easily change.

O man. That's a nice transfer. I think I transferred $200 once. :(

LOL!

Not a bad start. After one scratching there were 9 selections for 9 smiles. One of them ended up at the maximum price of $1,000 yet it was only $168 on the TAB. I've never come across any TAB divvy (winner or loser) to pay around $1,000 or even remotely close to it. Maybe for more of a level playing-field Betfair could consider reducing their max price of $1,000 to $500 or whatever, even though a $1,000 winner would be a very attractive promotional tool.

Laying each of today's selections for a liability of $33 produced a profit of $3.88.

Today's selections are:

Ipswich
3/4
6/17
7/9

Coffs
3/2
4/8
5/14
7/12
8/4

Mornington
5/10
6/8
7/8
8/15

Canberra
2/9
6/14

Cranbourne
5/5
6/1

Not a bad day. There were 16 smiles from the 16 selections for a profit of $17.02.

I seem to remember a winner in a pommy race many many years ago @ $1000 on BF.

Probably a once/twice a decade type scenario which is still probably often enough to retire the layer, psychologically if not financially;), not one to mention to your mates about down the pub I would have thought.

Michael,

I'm not sure of the logic of your 'outsiders' picks.

Why is it that you choose only one in the races you are going to operate on? For instance in yesterday's Canberra Race 6 you chose one horse (14) whereas there were horses 3, 9, 13, and 15 all over 30 to 1 too (and none of them got even a place).

I realise that this means you have 5 horses against you instead of 1 (if you lay them all); but they were all as unlikely to salute as the one you chose (given the prices). After all there were 15 horses in the race anyway!

In the other Canberra race (race 2) there were only 8 starters (so 6 to oppose your choice); and I can see the wisdom of not choosing more than the one in that case.

It's a selection system I use to lay the worst-rated horse in certain races that have to adhere to a couple of (logical?) rules.

In the testing period there were 127 selections for 127 smiles, and since listing the selections here there have been 25 selections for also 25 smiles. So I'm hoping...and also enjoying it. Depending on my gut-feeling/opinion I often increase the size of the bets. Over the past two days my profit is approximately $350, but that could easily change.

I'll list today's selections later.

Thanks for that, Michael. Makes sense.

While I have not a way of rating the horses, I do believe that the market is a strong indicator that you can trust --- and like yourself I have been doing OK recently (touch wood)!

Was going to ask if you multiplied your bets in some way --- the returns seemed rather insignificant. Guessed you must have been operating somehow like that.

A couple of weeks back Angry made a suggestion about what to do with races in which there is an odds on fav.. Have found that valuable too.

Good luck today.

Thanks, Merriguy, and you too.

The price of the selection isn't too important because I'm laying them for a fixed amount. The selections are not necessarily big outsiders, and some of them have even started at single figures. For convenience of the results for this thread, I use a fixed liability of $33.

Today's selections:

Eagle Farm
3/12
4/15
6/15
7/10
8/15

Rosehill
3/8
4/5
5/14
6/1
7/15

Moonee Valley
1/7
4/11
7/11
8/14

Morphetville
2/8
5/13
6/13
7/1

Gold Coast
2/2
3/7
5/12
6/15
7/16

Newcastle
6/12
8/13

Werribee
3/3
4/11
7/5

Sapphire Coast
6/13

Tamworth
4/11
6/3
8/10

Ascot
1/6
2/1
3/13
7/15

Dubbo
3/1

Toowoomba
1/9
4/3
5/6

There are 40 selections, providing none are scratched. That amount is quite scary...

A good day. There were 40 smiles from 40 selections for a profit of $33.00.

Today's selections are:

Randwick
3/11
6/10
7/3

Sale
5/1
6/12

Wagga
6/12
7/11

Sun Coast
4/11
6/9
8/7

Narracoorte
1/6
4/8
5/6
6/5

Pinjarra
5/5
8/9
9/8

Wangaratta
4/12
6/12
7/2

Devenport
4/4
6/9
7/3

To be absolutely accurate, Michael, it was 39/39 yesterday. Eagle Farm 6/15 was a late scratching. Still not bad though!!!!!!! Best of luck today.

Hi MichaelG,

Regarding Narracoorte race 6 no. 5, should the selection be no.9?

The Schmile

Will end in tears. 2 or 3 winners and it's all gone. Good luck though.

Thanks, Merriguy.

I don't know what happened but I recorded it as a smile, for a profit of $0.19. I think I might have made the mistake because I had multiple bets in that race.

The Schmile, maybe we have a somewhat similar selection method but the Narrocoorte R6 selection is definitely no.5. After now confirming it as the selection I hope it doesn't win.

Mark, true but at least it can currently withstand about 5 accidents. I'm hoping the selection process and filters are worthwhile...time will tell.

In fact, I'm betting (not laying) another method that has some connection to the Lay method, and it's showing a good profit without the huge liability.

Not a bad day. There were 23 smiles from the 23 selections for a profit of $16.28.

Going along very nicely michaelg. Well done.

Yes. No accidents yet...touch wood.

Today's selections are:

Lismore
3/12
5/6
7/13
8/14

W'bool
6/11
7/1
8/7

Orange
5/13
7/13

At last, an accident.

There were 8 smiles from 9 selections for a loss of $29.62.

Since starting this thread last Thursday there have been 95 smiles from 96 selections for a profit of $41.50.

Today's selections are:

Townsville
2/6
3/7
6/8

Gosford
2/5

Kyneton
4/7

The five selections were beaten for a profit of $2.16.

Todays Racing
 

Any selections for today mick?

Hi, Mike.

I see someone is interested in the selections, even though that's all it might be because it's understandable that only few people if any might be laying them.

Last night I transferred another $2,000 into my bank account due to the profit I've been making from the method. After saying that I hope it does not now crash.

Dombeen
5/1
7/6

Warwick Farm
5/11
7/13

Sandown
1/10
3/6
4/8

Gawler
6/10
8/13

Ascot
6/10
7/15

Michael

Your clearly staking more than the profit/loss figures you post here then.

Yes, A.P.

For convenience I'm using the nominal liability of $33 per selection to record the results just for this thread.

Depending on the selection I will decide if to increase or maintain my minimum bet. The accident on Monday was ridden by D.Griffin which made me uneasy so I fortunately layed it for my minimum. There's also been some good jockeys on the selections, and even though they've been smiles with healthy profits my bets have not been substantial. Also, if their form in my opinion is strong I will not bet too heavy.

Nice to see you knockin' em dead Michaelg!!

The Schmile

Not bad day. The 11 selections became 11 smiles for a profit of $5.93.

Hi Michaelg,

Thanks for the earlier post regards MR. I will now change to backing the top 2 chances as I see them on the nose(only taking overs) and see how this goes. Who knows, I may even make it the local track one of these days and give the bookies a bit of 'what for' LOL!

Regards your results here, very impressive! If I am correct, you are running several rules to pick out the right races for each meet and 1 or more filter systems to weed out & confirm "the worst" in the field, with no immediate panic regards the long odds for each selection - irrespective of where they end up at the jump?

Are you able to give me a simple explanation for the staking method for the lay bet on BF? I am new to this side of the fence = it feels like putting my pants on backwards just to think about the concept of laying a horse (unintended visual aside!)

cheers LG

PS what also interests me is that you appear to have created opportunities to simultaneously back and lay in the same race thereby reducing the overall exposure-liability? (a 'push-me-pull-me horseplay'
and lets not go with too many visuals on that one either LMAO)

Hi, L.G.

Yes, I pick the "right" races and then apply a couple of filters to weed out the worst chance in the race.

Laying via S.P. is not a worry because even if the selection ends up being the biggest outsider I can only lose $33 (this is liability for each selection I use for the purpose of recording the results on this thread) but not with real betting. The only drawback with outsiders is that the profit is minimal.

I have no staking method - I lay each selection according to my opinion. But I do have a minimum liability and will increase on this according to my opinion. For example, for the purposes of this thread today's profit was $5.93 with level $33 liability lay-bets, but my real profit was about $100 with having different sized bets. The higher I might bet if I think the horse's chances of winning are slim.

I no longer back and lay (only lay) because the results are too hard to accurately determine, and I prefer laying.

Thanks mg

Your SR looks phenomenal, something akin to a high yielding online bank account ticking over with interest - the only risks I see being the bank falling over (too many successive longshots get up?) or the opportunity cost is too great (better use of funds elsewhere?)

If we assume that 'accidents' remain low and far between, perhaps as part of the holy grail of betting systems, we also have a low yielding money management system that generates an inflation busting return on funds lying idle in the bank = high smiles all around?

Surely it would make business sense(subject to current leglislation) for the likes of BF, TBA et al to make use of a pool of idle funds, in a similar way.

Just my thoughts.

LG

Hi, L.G.

Yes, the strike rate so far has been phenomenal.

I identify the "right" races by applying only one rule - and that is every horse in the race must have had at least three career starts. Then I apply two simple filters.

I've also been looking at a second "outsiders" lay method based on the above rule. I started about a week ago using it here, in the U.S. and in the U.K. and so far it has a 100% strike rate. The overseas bets are still small ($33 liability) but the Oz bets are somewhat substantial.

Is there any "rule of thumb" regarding what the return might be? Yesterday Sandown, race 1, layed your suggesion and one of my own (9 and 10) for $200 --- the return was a magnificent $2.43!!!

Don't mind a risk; but it would have been heart attack material had one of them got up, and eventually they will. While other races were better, it seems that the risk/reward ratio is too slanted towards BF.

Thanks --- and Good Luck.

Merriguy, I don't have a rule of thumb.

Almost all the smiles will provide an extremely small profit, but there's been one or two, not many that have started at single figures. I just persevere and hope over the long run it'll be successful because of the selection method.

Today's selections:

Rocky
1/2
2/4
5/13
6/13
7/5
9/11

Wyong
2/7
5/6
7/14

Ballarat
4/9

Geraldton
6/10
7/12

Cranbourne
5/5
6/1
7/11

THought that might be your answer! Anyway Good Luck today.

Wyong 7????
#4 = 2 starts.

Meant to add I hope it gets beat for you.