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-   -   My Attempt at it (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=24435)

UselessBettor 24th June 2012 05:10 PM

My Attempt at it
 
With all this talk on fulltime punting I thought I would give it a theoretical go if I had a big enough bank.

These are my real selections that I am betting but just not at the levels which would need to go fulltime. I have every confidence I could place the same bets at the required level with a larger bank without any hassle. My methods are high turnover with smallish bets.

There will be limited value in this thread for others as I will not post my selections as they could be backfitted to determine my methods. I will be using a combination of betting and laying selections. I will post my profit / loss on a theorectical bank and will also take money out for living costs.

I think I will need a bank of 40K to ensure I am safe with my bet size. This is 10 times what I think my maximum draw down could be.

I'll start by putting up todays results.

Each day I will take out a wage. It will be $200 per day which is approximately 73K. My profit on starting bank will hopefully be large enough to cover this as I will turn it over many times. My Profit on turnover however will be extremely small.

Day 1 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $40,000
Profit for the day : $590.47
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $40,390.47

So far so good.

moeee 24th June 2012 05:30 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
There will be limited value in this thread for others as I will not post my selections.
I'll start by putting up todays results.

Why bother?

UselessBettor 24th June 2012 05:35 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Why bother?

Accountability to myself.
Consistency.
Work Ethic.

All things you would need as a professional punter.

Lord Greystoke 24th June 2012 05:42 PM

I get it UB.

A is for Accountability.
B is for Blood_ hard work
C is for Consistency

The approach looks sound and commendable,
Especially given that you put it out there for all to see.


LG

moeee 24th June 2012 05:44 PM

Enjoy!!

UselessBettor 25th June 2012 06:55 AM

I got a small profit out of Ireland and the UK last night.

Day 1 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $40,390.47
Profit for the day : $49.51
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $40439.98

UselessBettor 25th June 2012 06:11 PM

Bad day today with a number of losers. It should be expected after a good day yesterday.


Day 2 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $40,439.98
Profit for the day : $(481.78) LOSS
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $39758.20


I've got a few going around tonight so hopefully I wake up in the morning to a nice profit.

UselessBettor 26th June 2012 06:43 AM

Day 2 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $39,758.20
Profit for the day : $103.23
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $39,861.43


A nice little profit to wake to over night. I already take betfair commission out of the above at the rate of 6.5%. I wonder how much the premium charge would effect me eventually. Something for me to keep in mind (although it would be a long time till I bet at this level).

I just realised I have taken out the UK commission incorrectly at 6.5% and it should only be 5%.

UselessBettor 26th June 2012 06:50 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Day 2 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $39,758.20
Profit for the day : $103.23
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $39,861.43


I just realised I have taken out the UK commission incorrectly at 6.5% and it should only be 5%.


Day 2 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $39,861.43
Adjustment for Commission miscalculation : +3.44
Closing Bank: $39,864.87

UselessBettor 26th June 2012 03:54 PM

Day 3 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $39,864.87
Profit for the day : $1033.41
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $40698.28

It was a good day today with it being a Tuesday and I only had bets on at 2 meetings. Almost all of the bets got up and the lays ran poorly.

Interesting to me is I have pulled out a wage of $600 so far and the bank is still higher then the starting bank.

Obviously the forum curse is yet to hit me but Im sure its on its way, I've got a few bets in the UK and IRE tonight so hopefully I'll wake up to a higher bank again tommorrow.

UselessBettor 26th June 2012 07:02 PM

Here are a list of my POSSIBLE lays tonight. Not all will be layed, and those that are layed will be layed for varying amounts, but I've posted them to show my selections are made before the races.

I have not included the list of horses which I will also be betting as I don't want to give away too much.

Ballinrobe, 5:45, Sughera
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Eja Eja
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Golan Heights
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Lady Lyrath
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Tamujin
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Painted Fingers
Ballinrobe, 6:45, Vasoni
Ballinrobe, 7:50, Theatre Gold
Ballinrobe, 7:50, In The Haven
Ballinrobe, 7:50, Georgie
Ballinrobe, 7:50, Split Ear
Ballinrobe, 8:20, Ms Kiltiernan
Ballinrobe, 8:20,Pasou
Ballinrobe, 8:20,Tawrific Laois
Ballinrobe, 8:20,Sir Ladyswell
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Annie Money
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Royal Chukka
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Billybhoy
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Mill Gale
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Gerbera
Ballinrobe, 8:55,Bracken House
Beverley, 04:00,So Cheeky
Beverley, 04:00,More Bottle
Beverley, 05:00,Queen´s Princess
Beverley, 05:30,Never In
Brighton,03:15,Microlight
Brighton,03:15,Toms River Tess
Brighton,03:45,Litotes
Brighton,04:45,Ben Croy
Brighton,05:15,The Wonga Coup
Brighton,05:15,Gay Gallivanter
Brighton,05:15,Johnny Splash
Brighton,05:15,Waspy
Newtot Abbot,07:05,Sieglinde
Newbury,08:00,Royale Ransom
Newbury,08:00,Netley Marsh
Newbury,08:35,Junior Diary
Newbury,09:05,Adaeze

UselessBettor 27th June 2012 01:36 PM

Sorry but I didn't get a chance to psot this morning as I was off to work early.
Here are the results from the UK. A sensational night.

Day 3 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $40,698.28
Profit for the day : $467.76
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $41,166.04

moeee 27th June 2012 02:08 PM

The more you win the more I lose :(

How come you not deducting $200 every day no more?

UselessBettor 27th June 2012 04:53 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
The more you win the more I lose :(

How come you not deducting $200 every day no more?

I deduct on the AUS Market Update (coming through in the next few mins). I was just checking a selection which cost me a bit. Trying to see if I could work out if I could have covered it with a new filter or anything that makes sense, but its probably just one of those things.

Plus I think I am just having a lucky streak. It will surely fall under the forum curse soon enough.

UselessBettor 27th June 2012 05:04 PM

Day 4 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $41,166.04
Profit for the day : $755.34
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $41,721.38

I hit a winner which cost me approx $1200 in the profits today. It was modestly priced at $25 on betfair. It was Gawler Race 2 : 8 The Wild Thing. He was a consistently poor performing horse and actually got worse as the distance increased. It was his first attempt over 2000m. Perhaps he liked the ground more then the other horses (soft). Apart from that I have no clue why it performed so well.

Still I guess I can't complain as while that winner reduced an awsome day into a great day I still made over $700 on the day. Remember I don't bet at these levels. I made $7.58 today over the same selections :)

I bet only at Canterbury, Gawler and Caulfield today. The resulting profits of each were:

Caulfield: $765.43
Canterbury : $830.99
Gawler : -841.08(LOSS)

I'll give it a couple of weeks then look at my state by state profit. Maybe SA is costing me a lot, but I have not looked into it yet.

Anyway it was a good day so can't complain.

UselessBettor 28th June 2012 05:57 AM

Day 4 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $41,721.38
Profit for the day : $719.02
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $42,440.4

A good night last night. If this keeps up I will need to seriously consider upping my bet size.

UselessBettor 28th June 2012 04:33 PM

Day 5 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $42,440.40
Profit for the day : $1,476.33
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $43,716.73


Another great day today.

moeee 28th June 2012 05:17 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Another great day today.

Perhaps it is time to change your name to AwesomeBettor.

UselessBettor 28th June 2012 06:50 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Perhaps it is time to change your name to AwesomeBettor.

lol It might seem like that at the moment but give it another week and I'll probably be floundering in a huge loss. Winning streaks come and go. I just hope I don't give it all back.

moeee 28th June 2012 07:06 PM

yeah - well I been losing Big Time past 2 weeks , but I think the tide has finally turned.
The New Year starts soon and I am gonna try winning like you are.

UselessBettor 28th June 2012 07:57 PM

Moeee,

Here are some lays for tonight. Some might be long, I'll let you work out how you like to stake them. This is just one of the meetings for tonight.

Yarmouth 02:50:00 Green Warrior
Yarmouth 02:50:00 Rasteaul
Yarmouth 03:20:00 Love Grows Wild
Yarmouth 03:50:00 Canning Vale
Yarmouth 04:20:00 Tiberius Claudius
Yarmouth 04:20:00 Kattys Secret
Yarmouth 04:20:00 Ellies Image

moeee 28th June 2012 08:04 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Moeee,

Here are some lays for tonight.

Sorry
I have confused you.
When I said I was gonna win like you are.
I didn't mean win like how you are doing it.
I just meant I'm gonna win.

UselessBettor 29th June 2012 07:27 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Sorry
I have confused you.
When I said I was gonna win like you are.
I didn't mean win like how you are doing it.
I just meant I'm gonna win.

Moeee,

They all ran as expected last night with none of those lays getting up. All my other bets did well too so overall another good night in the UK. I'll update the figures later as alas I need to run off to work.

UselessBettor 29th June 2012 04:59 PM

Here is the UK result for last night

Day 5 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $43,716.73
Profit for the day : $175.20
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $43891.93

A few abandoned races in the UK last night and tonight. Overall a successful night. I didn't have a good day in Aus though, I post those results later tonight.

UselessBettor 29th June 2012 05:34 PM

Day 6 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $43,891.93
Profit for the day : $-18.94 (LOSS)
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $43,672.99


This doesn't looks like such a bad day when you look at the final result. But the problem was Geelong. It contributed a loss of $973.28. Goulburn pulled it all back though. So as you can see I am a little dissappointed in Geelongs result.

I've got a few tonight so hopefully I can keep the momentum going forward.

garyf 29th June 2012 06:07 PM

HI U.B.


If it's any consolation i never have bet on dirt tracks.

Geelong Synthetic.
Sunshine Coast Cushion.
Toowoomba Cushion.
Canberra Acton but i don't bet in Canberra anyway.

There are some dirt tracks in Country Adelaide as well,
I have seen them watching Sky Channel again that,
Doesn't affect me as i don't bet in Adelaide.

So for me it's a grass surface or nothing.

There may be others around Cntry N.S.W. not mentioned.
I didn't make this rule up straight away as when these surfaces,
Were introduced i had to wait till i gathered sufficient data on them,
As my punting nowadays is based on betting on certain tracks only.

When sufficient data was acquired the results were less than stunning,
I could have introduced filters outside of what i use now but decided against.

This is as i have found over an eternity, some tracks continue,
To produce winners mainly in the betting where others don't.

Also where do my top 1-2-3-4 ratings produce as well.

So i share your pain in being gelded at Geelong.
(Maybe not to quite that extent)

Cheers.

UselessBettor 29th June 2012 06:24 PM

Thanks gary.

I'll keep that in mind and make sure I watch out for those sort of tracks.

UselessBettor 29th June 2012 08:55 PM

Here are a couple of tips for those who want something to bet tonight.

Chester 18:15 Savanna Mala
Musselburgh 16:55 Safe House

I don't mind giving away a tip here and there.

UselessBettor 30th June 2012 03:03 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor

Chester 18:15 Savanna Mala
Musselburgh 16:55 Safe House


Both these tips won.

UselessBettor 30th June 2012 05:24 AM

Another UK profit over night.

Day 6 - UK Market Update
Starting Bank: $43,672.99
Profit for the day : $361.62
Wage Deducation : $0
Closing Bank: $44,034.61

The nights profit covered the small loss and the wage for the day from the AUS punting and added a little bit extra to the bank. Saturdays have been particularly kind to me on Aus racing so Im hoping for another good one today. I think its mainly due to the better racing and its more obvious why a horse might be racing. Saturday will also be my wrap up for my first week on following this religiously.

UselessBettor 30th June 2012 04:37 PM

Its been a wild ride today and I'll update results at the end of the Belmont races.

For those interested here are some to lay at Belmont in the next couple:

Belmont Race 7 Numbers 3,5,6,8,10,13,16
Belmont Race 8 Numbers 3,4,6,9,12,14,15,17,18

UselessBettor 30th June 2012 06:14 PM

Day 7 - Aus Market Update
Starting Bank: $44,034.61
Profit for the day : $236.84
Wage Deducation : $200
Closing Bank: $44,071.45

What a wild ride today ended up being. At one point I was up over 2000 and at another point I was down 2000. I got hit by a few longer shots that got up today in the lays which included Belmont race 8 and Sunshine Coast Race 8. Still most of my bets got up which helped over the day.

At the end of the UK tonight it will be the end of the first week and unless something major happens and I have the worst night ever I should finish this week with a profit.

UselessBettor 30th June 2012 08:32 PM

For those who want something to watch go around tonight. These should win or come very close.

Newmarket 14:00:00 Michelangelo
Chester 14:10:00 Annunciation
Newmarket 15:00:00 Dandino
Windsor 16:00:00 Coupe de Ville
Lingfield 18:20:00 Royal Aspiration

UselessBettor 1st July 2012 05:38 PM

I'll update UK results when I get a chance. I did not bet today. I was sick throwing up.

moeee 1st July 2012 05:58 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I did not bet today. I was sick throwing up.

Yeah.
Its called withdrawal syndrome.
Happens to me too when I don't have a daily wager.

moeee 3rd July 2012 08:16 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I'll update UK results when I get a chance. I did not bet today. I was sick throwing up.

Jeeze!! - Those UK results musta turned out Real BAD!!

Seriously though , It's funny that here you are having a winning day every day for a week , and you feel unwell and throw up.
That usually happens to me after a week of LOSING Days :(

UselessBettor 6th July 2012 08:59 AM

Thanks for your concern moeee.

I was sick in bed and unable to use the computer for quite a few days. I'm getting back into it today hopefully. But not sure yet. I may just start it up again tommorrow. I'll leave off the UK for a while as I am not up to the extra analysis required for those selections.

Being sick brought up an interesting point though. If you were a professional punter and your sick for a week then you basically have no turnover(and profit) for that week.

moeee 6th July 2012 09:26 AM

Sick affects everyone not just Punters.
You don't go to work you don't get paid.
Unless you have some sort of agreement to allow for it.

UselessBettor 7th July 2012 03:53 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Sick affects everyone not just Punters.
You don't go to work you don't get paid.
Unless you have some sort of agreement to allow for it.

Hmmm In most jobs you get sick leave. I still got paid even though I wasn't there.

moeee 7th July 2012 04:12 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
In most jobs you get sick leave.

That would be the "unless you have some sort of agreement to allow for it."
Self employed and casuals need look elsewhere.


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