To Ratings Aficionados
 

What elements of racing don't Ratings examine ????

Neil might have a answer for that.

depends on the ratings. Different ratings look at different things. Some might include something that others dont. You could rate the horses likeness for the weather if you wanted to.

Many things Shifty.
Blood counts.
How it has worked.
Has jockey had a gutbuster in the previous race.
And on it goes.

Which ratings approach are you referring to?.

(weight)(class (speed)(statistical)?.


Cheers.

Most public rating systems don't make the variables and weightings available.
Hence make your own and adjust accordingly.

That's an interesting statement Vortech. I know you are playing about with one, so if one was to think about doing their own what would you consider to be a Starter or Pre School kit.

I do not want to know what you do personally, that is yours, but where would one start and does it take a fair bit of time, and data.

I have no idea but it might be the next step on from the Neurals or a combination of both .

How does a rating system differ from an ordinary racing system. I hope I make sense.

Star

The way i see a difference is with a system it may say if the horse ran 1 or 2 it is included bit there is a difference in a horse that ran 2nd 1/2 head to one that ran 2nd 2 lengths.

Aslo maybe the horse was ran 2nd 2 weeks ago or maybe 2 months this would be rated differently according to the way your ratings are set up.

This is my first attempt with a ratings system so I might be well off the money.

I'm using a point allocation system based on the variables that perform the best over certain races.

I use the base rating per Bet Selector and apply points based on certain variables.

I have about 75 variables at the moment with different weightings applied.

At the moment I have tested back to 2001 with

473,930 races bet
A loss of $49,050.10 on NSW (Around 10% loss)

My target is around 10% profit so still a lot of computer hours to go.
The challenge I find is when two variables combined produce a better result.

I still think the number one variable in the game is the jockey. Have to be careful as they are over bet but geez its frustrating with a good horse that sits 3 wide or from a wide barrier the jockey sits out the back with a slow tempo.

Star what I have learnt over the last couple of years is to read read and read more about different opinions and test on your own merits. It is very difficult to make a consistent profit and you need patience. What some say is a stupid idea, with the twist of a rule or two can be a good idea.

Cheers

Thanks for the reply Vortech. With those 75 variables ( is their that many that can be listed and measured ? )

I am trying to think about that business saying, Starts something like. If you can measure it, you can plan it. or something like that. A good nights sleep will leave me with the answer in the morning.

With those variables, do you do it manually or do you use a computer program. Seems like you are a fair way down the track.

Star.

I use Bet Selector as the base and then apply some other little magic filters I have found on my journey.

:eek: :D

My thoughts exactly. But more power to Vortech.

Star

I use a similar approach but use only 9 variables and a couple of those may contain 2/3 variables with in them.

Days since last start is one variable but i use the last 2 starts for calculations.

Thanks Shaun. This is a approach I might need to lean towards.

So Vortech. Your ratings are a : Watch this space. 75 plus 2 more and counting.

Sorry, if that does not come across as I mean it, which is just how much effort this systems business can get.

What I am thinking at the moment should not be put in this thread incase somebody misunderstands exactly what I mean. I will wait a few days because I do not want to appear disrespectful to others here because we all use a different approach , have different temperments and a few long termers have a very long memory.

It will be the subject of yet another thread. I can hear a few moans in the background. Oh no!. Another thread by Star.

Np Star we all learn by asking questions and no ones opinion on the way things should be done is always the only way it can be done.

A certain poster on here said Ratings take everything into account. This poster uses R&S Ratings I believe.

IF your commercial Ratings take everything into account, then they've weighted ALL the Variables to achieve an optimum outcome. IF you apply your own filter / s to these ratings then the weightings of the Ratings variables will be tipped over so that they're out of whack / sync, and not how the developer had set them up. They will then be heavily weighted towards the filter you applied. And, the filter you applied may also impact directly on other filters, so it just ends up like a dogs breakfast and the logic of the original set-up is out the window ..... and you wonder why it doesn't work !!!!!

IF your commercial Ratings take everything into account, the ONLY filter you could apply is a price filter.

You could apply a race filter obviously ..... sigh

I think commercial ratings also very limited in relation to

- Track conditions
- Distances
- Gender of horse
- Location
- Field Sizes

Hi Vortech, would you tell me what variables the Ratings in the Herald Sun for instance would use / assess to come up with their figures. I've never really been a fan of Ratings, as I see these (rightly or wrongly) as being no different to the pre-post market.

I suppose if you had an unpopular filter, one that you've identified that goes against the crowd, and adds to the POT ..... then you could use the ratings and apply your filter !?!? Vortech ?!?!

Hi Barny,

Sorry to interrupt, I'm having a fiver on Frisky today.

Go you good thing. :)

The Schmile

Again i say to this question can't be answered properly until,
We know around 5 things.

What type of ratings are we dealing with 1st.

1-Weight ratings.
2-Class ratings.
3- Speed ratings.
4- Statistical ratings.
5 Paid for ratings (Bet Selector)(Cyber horse virtual form guide)etc,
That use all, or a combination of the above.

Once we know what type of ratings the Author refers to,
We can start to list certain elements.

Cheers.

Interesting subject this one has become, each reply brings up more questions. Without sounding like a smart Axxe in my opinion a commercial ratings cannot take everything into account.

That statement means that they regard themselves as OMNIPOTENT. But, Your statement about throwing other filters in can throw everything out of balance and it all ends up as a dogs breakfast.

Interesting thought.

It's logical.

If the ratings give 13 points out of 100 (you wouldn't know the figure anyway ?? = 13%) for running within 7 days ..... THEN you allot 20 points in a separate scenario for running within 7 days ..... You've now overstated the "notional" Ratings by 20 points ..... Where do you deduct 20 points from to keep things at 100% ????? A big dogs Breakfast !!!

It's the Stress Free way of losing your money The Schmille via having a "stable". You don't have to agonise over Barrier 14, will it or wont it go back, how long is the run till the track turns ..... it's in the stable so you back it !!! ..... don't have to worry about a Heavy 8 ..... it's in the stable so you back it !!! ..... Failed miserably two starts back, the only reason it had a long spell between two starts back and last start was that it took an extra few days to actually cross the finish line in the GR3 and it was knackered, but hey don't worry ..... it's in the stable so you back it !!! .... then there's the impost it's carrying today .... it's in the stable so you back it.

Stress Free ...............

My list of 100+ reasons why a horse gets beaten is great comfort and was compiled over 10 years ?!

Are you on next run no matter what The Schmille ?? ..... this stable thingy will get you in lol.

The Schmille
Thank god then the meetings been cancelled.
Saved you a few bob.

Star,
The only thing one should avoid in Ratings is Speed Ratings Which by our track standards are worse than useless.
Thats why the Official Race Club Handicappers rely strictly as a base - Weight.

Look at the deplorable strike rate of Time Form Ratings in Australia.

Bugga - Set the telly up outside with my deck chair, got the zinc cream on the snoz, and a cool green martini in a fancy glass with an umbrella sticking out of the top of it. Ah well, will do some dough next time it runs !!!!!!!!!

Is this you Barny? If so, nice legs. ;)

Although that umbrella looks a bit big for your glass.

lol ..... bewdiful !!!!!!!

Ha, Very clever.

And nor should they Star. There's dozens and dozens even hundreds of potential variables you could measure, most of which aren't independant so in using them your in fact doubling up on your measurements. Barny is alluding to this I think. Of those left many won't have much effect when you calculate their likelihood ratios. With the greatest respect to Vortech, I strongly doubt there are 75 independant variables that make a measurable difference. I suspect Shaun is about right.

Exactly what I wuz trying to say AngryPixie, thanks. I underlined a comment in your quote which I think is important !!

Thanks again.

Garyf, by assessing the top 5 starting prices you have approx 76 to 80% of the winners. Not a bad short list. Removes around 60% of other horses.
Obviously starting price is assessed around much statistical ratings.
What other variables listed above in weight, class and speed do you think are not assessed in the starting price?

The original question was this..

" What elements of racing don't ratings examine"

You forgot to mention statistical ratings which was my 4th set.
Let's list some variables here.

How much energy has the horse lost in being floated,
To the track especially long trips on hot days.

Is the horse feeling 100% for today's race,
Horses can't talk unless you're backing "MR ED".
EG Black Caviar.

Will the jockey give the horse every chance or,
Will it be a slaughter job. etc etc.

So what % of the 76-80% you qouted would account for,
The above scenarios do you think?.

I would think these would be some of the elements,
Ratings don't examine in answer to the original question.

These would be the 4th set that you forgot to mention.
In my post "STATISTICAL RATINGS" which can be made up of the,
Individuals own preference.

Cheers.

Thanks Garyf,

Some of your suggestions are very helpful.

REgards

Actually speaking there Vortech this part concerning,
A horse travelling from one place to another was someting,
I had never considered.

Last year a ratings service ran some contest that i won can't remember,
Exactly what it was but the prize was a free copy of Edition=2,
Trevor Johns book racing my perfect investment.

Chapter=5 page=19 is the heading,
"Have horse will travel" talks about,
Trainers who float there horses long distances,
In search of a race to win.

It poses the question why would a trainer in this day and age,
With float costs etc travel way out of there territory to win.

He goes on to explain that a few years ago in February,
Race 4-12 a horse called plan ahead was entered in a 3yo quality.
He said in fact it was just a race, just a normal 3yo race, pure and simple.

Plan Ahead was the only horse the trainer was bringing from Stawell
Around 505 km away and a 1,000 km round trip.
The horse was 5th up from a spell and in his last 3 runs had suffered bad luck in the run including 2 runs with severe interference.

He says so based on that little pen picture what price would you be happy with.

It won and paid $67.00 doesn't say what tote or bookies.

There are others examples as well.

Got me thinking both ways as my previous post.

Now look what i have done another "BARNY" post,
About to appear re his ideas think outside the square,
Can see what he is trying to say not sure if he uses this?.

I use this in one of many non-conforming filters you could say.

Let me say this you have to spend money to make money,
Even though this book i won i have spent plenty over the years,
Buying systems books and subscribing to paid rating,
Services to get where i am today.

Rules from systems books and experience is what i use Gleaned from all that money spent over the years.

And i will continue to do it.

Cheers.

Ok my programmer is hard at work with some ideas ready to roll next week.

I've used the Career performance assessment based on weight/class algorithms from R&S, the speed maps, the don scott method and some statistcal data from bet selector.

Been able to backtest for only a month which gave around a 17% POT.

Would love to have a little more reliable data but its just to expensive to purchase and very time consuming. If I can hit 5 to 10% POT for around 20 bets a week I'll be very happy.

Once its all automatic I'll send through my selections.

Big thanks to garyf.

I just wish I could use Bet Selector to more of an advantage.