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michaelg 6th February 2011 11:16 AM

These are the selections for Albany - all under 200 points.

2/9
3/10
6/10

Merriguy 6th February 2011 11:39 AM

Just a couple I'd "challenge" you on:

Colac 8/9 --- think it also qualifies;

and Sapphire 8/7 doesn't qualify.

Good Luck!

michaelg 6th February 2011 11:58 AM

Hi, Merriguy.

You're right.

I miscalculated with the number of runners in Colac R8.

And I don't know how I identified Sapphire 8/7 as the selection because it has only the fourth highest points.


Therefore,

Colac R8 no.9 is a selection for the under 200 points method.
Sapphire R8 is a no-bet race.

Thanks, Merriguy.

Merriguy 6th February 2011 12:25 PM

Would not be worried. I know my brain is "spinning" sometimes after doing what is, on the surface, an easy task.

First pick down. Actually I didn't lay it. I think it is good to leave out of contention any that is picked by Radio Tab, Guest tipster, and Late Mail --- as was Chosira.

michaelg 6th February 2011 06:35 PM

A disaster today.

Under 200 points method.

There were 5 accidents from 14 selections for a loss of $118.56, it's still in front by $175.61. However I think I will end it because the average profit per overall selection is slightly over $2. This means that it has been taking about 15 smiles to make up for an accident.


However, with the 200 points-plus system the average profit per overall selection is about $3.50. Over the four days of betting there is a profit of $157.51.

I have been using another method that lays fancied horses. I have been looking at it for some time now but never recorded the results because some days there have been no selections. However I started laying them yesterday, and after two days there have been 21 smiles from 21 selections for a profit of $122.60. So it looks good...touch wood. And it might have more logic than the neural system which has little, if any.

If there's any selections tomorrow I'll list them. Hopefully this will compensate for the reduced action.

Try Try Again 6th February 2011 06:51 PM

Michaelg,

Well done on your systems but how do you find time to follow and investigate all these? You always seem to have another "up your sleeve"!

michaelg 6th February 2011 07:00 PM

Its something I thought about some time ago, but now that we can lay S.P. early in the morning I'm remembering some methods I had thought of previously. And for the past two weeks I've had time on my hands because of my back.

This one I've been laying for the past two days has impressed one of my punting friends who does not want me to release it. However, if it proves profitable I might do so, not publicly but privately.

michaelg 7th February 2011 09:25 AM

200 Points Method

Two selections today:

Wangaratta 3/6

Muswellbrook 3/6




New Lay Method

Scone 5/3
Wangaratta 7/1
Murwillumbah 5/4

Stix 7th February 2011 12:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg

I've been looking at another "illogical" lay system:

1) Identify the top neural selection based on the default/factory settings.
2) Minimum of 10 runners.
3) Lay the top selection providing it has less than 200 neural points.

....if you bet at the following tracks only..... how does it go?

"Aarat", "Armidale", "Benalla", "Bendigo", "Cairns", "Camperdown", "Canberra", "Canterbury", "Caulfield", "Colac", "Coleraine", "Coonabarabran", "Coonamble", "Cootamundra", "Cowra", "Donald", "Dunkeld", "Echuca", "Flemington", "Gillgandra", "Gawler", "Gold Coast", "Grafton", "Hamilton", "Hanging Rock", "Hawkesbury", "Horsham", "Inverall", "Kembla Grange", "Kilmore", "Kyneton", "Leeton", "Mildura", "Halidon", "Moe", "Moruya", "Mt Gambier", "Mudgee", "Murray Bridge", "Murtoa", "Murwillumbah", "Naracoorte", "Narrogin", "Narromine", "Nowra", "Oakbank", "Parkes", "Penola", "Pt Augusta", "Pt Lincoln", "Pt Macquarie", "Queanbeyan", "Quirindi", "Randwick", "Rockhampton", "Rosehill", "Sale", "Sapphire Coast", "Scone", "Stony Creek", "Tamworth", "Taree", "Tatura", "Terang", "Townsville", "Wagga", "Wangaratta", Warracknabeal", "Warren", "Warrnambool", "Wellington", "Werribee", "Wodonga", "Wyong", "Yarra Valley"

I've found these to be some of the worst performing (S/Rate) tracks for neurals.......

michaelg 7th February 2011 02:19 PM

Hi, Stix.

Unfortunately I haven't got records of the method by the tracks. I see they range from metro to bush so it's surprising they would have the same poor results. But then again, the neurals themselves can be surprising.

I have also been looking at the class of race, but there doesn't seem to be any sort of pattern.

The two selections in the 200 Points method have already been run. They were both smiles for a profit of $14.46.


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