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-   -   My 75% plays (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25328)

Lord Greystoke 8th November 2012 09:31 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Speedyben,

What determines the number of results to be confident in your strike rate ? Is 100 bets enough, 1000 bets, 10000 bets ?

Personally I have found at least 6000 races are needed to check ratings before the strike rate starts to stabailise.

I am interested in other peoples findings though.


In that case...

We need that world famous system tester of yours back online !

LG

evajb001 8th November 2012 09:37 PM

Also UB is it based on how many races you've done your rating on or how many races you've actually used your ratings on for a system type bet.

For example i've done ratings on almost 2,300 races now but the system only bets on roughly half of these.

I agree my sample size isn't the largest or the best. But its shown a profit in every month since the start. If it was a bung system I would've thought it may have been a bit lumpy or lost a month or two by now.

SpeedyBen 8th November 2012 10:35 PM

With horse racing I like to see a full year's results covering all seasons. Even then, you have to be constantly on the alert for changes beyond your control which may affect your selection method.
What I'd like to say is that since you are starting with a small amount enjoy it and let the profits accumulate. If you want to you can take a dividend when you double your bank and adjust the bank and bet accordingly. It is a great feeling when you are playing with other people's money.
I hope that is some help.

UselessBettor 8th November 2012 10:39 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001

For example i've done ratings on almost 2,300 races now but the system only bets on roughly half of these.

I agree my sample size isn't the largest or the best. But its shown a profit in every month since the start. If it was a bung system I would've thought it may have been a bit lumpy or lost a month or two by now.

You have to start somewhere. And its going really well already. I say keep it going but just keep an eye on it as last month seemed to be the worst month you had yet.

evajb001 9th November 2012 12:37 PM

All of the following placed at the new unit size of $2.23

Kempsey - Race 6

No.
1 Bengal Angel

Kempsey - Race 8

No.
2 Annarism

Sale - Race 6

No.
3 Family Crest

evajb001 9th November 2012 06:19 PM

last play of the day:

Cranbourne - Race 6

No.
3 Severn Road

evajb001 10th November 2012 10:14 AM

Here are some of the early plays for today, fill continue to post throughout the day just in case conditions change anywhere.

Flemington - Race 2

No.
3 Galah

Flemington - Race 3

No.
4 Hoylonny

evajb001 10th November 2012 11:58 AM

Flemington - Race 5

No.
10 Sea Siren

Flemington - Race 9

No.
8 Tokugawa

Eagle Farm - Race 4

No.
5 Binalong Road

Eagle Farm - Race 6

No.
3 Run Royal Run

Eagle Farm - Race 8

No.
13 Flying Jet

Warwick Farm - Race 4

No.
7 Nat King Cu

Morphettville Pk - Race 3

No.
3 Warator

Morphettville Pk - Race 6

No.
8 Sparkling Bella

Morphettville Pk - Race 7

No.
1 Riziz

Morphettville Pk - Race 8

No.
5 Selessi

will post any ascot plays in a couple hours

evajb001 10th November 2012 02:23 PM

Ascot - Race 3

No.
2 Smart Twister

Ascot - Race 4

No.
6 Solsay

Ascot - Race 7

No.
10 Luke's Luck

Ascot - Race 8

No.
4 Peggie's Dream

UselessBettor 10th November 2012 02:47 PM

good luck with them today.


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