OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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- Horse Race Betting Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=10)

- - Some Simple Systems (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=31713)

Quote:

Originally Posted by grizzle

That's because it's not "their" sports system, they're using someone else's sports betting service. ;)

..using the Kambi Group sportsbook

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun

Not sure what to do with this one, look at TAB fixed opening prices and back every runner listed $2 or less, a couple other filters are barrier 6 or less and leader or midfield runner.

Lots of winners and placing but prices short, BF is best, i have been playing around with stopping at 3 units profit or 2 units loss.

Hi Shaun,

Good Question, the stats say, early races produce more wining fav then late races, if that's the case, stopping at "", unit profit would be the way to go. The most important decision to make is when to invest, last minute? The stats suggest, the market early will be around 135%. At jump, it could be as low as 110%. This indicates, investing early, will give you better value.

Now, your $2.20 fav early, could change, to be as low as $1.90.

So, in your system, betting $2.00 or less, you would have missed out on considerable value and long term, you will lose, even betting in those early races.

Time wise is so critical, in investing at the pointy end of the market, there is not a lot of margin and you need every edge possible.

You are correct, BF is better than Tab odds, around 16% better than tote on average, after commission around the 12% mark, now that's an edge not to overlook.

For interest sake I ran your System through my data base, results below.

Tab fixed price at jump time =<$2.00, BP<7 and Settling <6.

Code:

                WIN      PLACE    
Races Bet:     612       588
Races Won:     319       464     
S.R./Race:      52.1%     78.9% 
Outlay($):     612.00    588.00    
Return   :     532.75    540.84    
$ Profit :     -79.25    -47.16    
% P.O.T. :     -12.9%     -8.0%     

Top Win Return: $568.41   Top Win Profit: $-43.59   Top Win % P.O.T.: -7.1%

Quote:

Originally Posted by humdinger

Starting point for a simple system:
Look at each runner last five starts
If they started at 10/1 or less, at two of those starts or more & are 20/1 or over today, take a closer look

Continue to have lots of fun with this quick & simple approach! Thanks humdinger :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by punts2

Continue to have lots of fun with this quick & simple approach! Thanks humdinger :)

Me too :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by humdinger

Not much of a speed map fan but might take another look. Thanks jake

Do find speed maps useful, I especially look at nags drawn on the speed with good recent form over slightly longer distances (say 100m - 200m longer) than today's race