Thanks Chrome - now I have to do is have enough faith to back all of my selections. I didn't even THINK about putting a trifecta on the Adelaide race - even though I tipped it in two of these comp's. DUMB!!!

Well, I was away yesterday, at a wedding. I got to the pub (in between the wedding and the reception, which was conveniently next to the pub) just before Adelaide race 7. I then realised the topweight was scratched. I checked my ratings, and of course this is how they were. The top 8 here for all.

MPH 7 4.30
seln mgn price name
6 0.0 $6.4 GRUNDYS CROSSING
8 0.5 $7.9 MODERN ERA
3 0.7 $9.0 RATHER GRAND
1 0.7 $9.6 ALMOST NEVER
5 1.4 $14.6 GET UP
2 1.6 $17.5 SURE BET
4 1.7 $18.1 FINNISS DOR
9 1.8 $20.3 PURE VELOCITY



Naturally, the winner was the next pick, would've gone up the order had I known etc. I guess this is a lesson - if not near a computer, post more than 5 picks.

Sportz I'm with you on Sam Sung a Song in Sydney (say that five times quickly) - I had HIM sixth pick too, rated $15.40 80% odds. The 5th pick was rated $15.30.

This is not my comp I am afraid.........

Duritz.

Bad luck. Yeah, if you're not going to be near a computer on the Saturday, it's advisable to add an extra horse, just in case of scratchings.

This week's races are:

CAULFIELD R6-3.30 OAKLEIGH PLATE 1100 M ($352000) (GROUP 1)
1 FASTNET ROCK Paul Perry G Boss 6 57
2 TAIKUN Bart Cummings S W Arnold 9 55.5
3 LILANDO Andrew Noblet D Nikolic 8 54.5
4 DON'T TELL TOM John Collins G Childs 1 53
5 LEGALLY BAY John Hawkes D Gauci 3 52.5
6 STRIKELINE Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 4 52.5
7 FOREPLAY Mathew Ellerton N Ryan (a) 5 52.5
8 ALIZES (NZ) Tony McEvoy S Seamer 10 52.5
9 DANBIRD Danny O'Brien B Shinn (a) 2 52.5
10 SEGMENTS Peter G Moody L Nolen 7 52.5

CANTERBURY R7-10.00 CANTERBURY CUP 1900 M ($101200) (GROUP 3)
1 ANOTHER WARRIOR Alan Bailey G Colless 4 58.5
2 DON RAPHAEL Kerry Parker G Boss 12 56
3 WINNING BELLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse C Munce 9 55
4 SATURDAY FEVER Tony McEvoy H Bowman 5 53.5
5 MAHTOUM Kim Moore J Ford 2 53
6 MOORING'S MELODY Bob Thomsen D Beadman 16 53
7 LEG IRONS Alicia Willick R McLeod 11 52.5
8 GRANDLY David Payne J Cassidy 7 52
9 RED HOT PEPPER David Payne 14 52
10 BEALE STREET Joseph Pride S Pollard 13 52
11 CAUGHT COURTING (NZ) Guy Walter D Beasley 1 52
12 SERPENTINE Robert Murrell Dale Spriggs 17 52
13 NKUNI David Payne 3 52
14 LUTALO (NZ) John O'Shea C Brown 15 52
15E MY CHINESE KING Gregory Hickman 10 52
16E LINDY'S GROOM (NZ) Ron Quinton M Bell (a) 6 52
17E CASITA (NZ) Graeme Rogerson R Stewart 8 52

Guess I'll be the first.

I reckon you guys are waiting for me to post so you know what not to include ;)

Including 7 horses in case of scratchings, just take the first 5 starters in order.

CAULFIELD R6-3.30 OAKLEIGH PLATE 1100 M ($352000) (GROUP 1)
8 Alizes
2 Taikun
4 Don't Tell Tom
1 Fastnet Rock
3 Lilando
6 Strikeline
7 Foreplay

CANTERBURY R7-10.00 CANTERBURY CUP 1900 M ($101200) (GROUP 3)
12 Serpentine
9 Red Hot Pepper
8 Grandly
5 Mahtoum
14 Lutalo
3 Winning Belle
6 Mooring's Melody

Yes here are my top 8 also, so as not to miss a winner due to late scratchings like last week here are my top 8. I would post more but I only set the program up to rank them to top 8 and I couldn't be stuffed changing it!

CAU 6 3.30
seln mgn price
1 0.0 $7.0 FASTNET ROCK-NZ
2 0.1 $7.1 TAIKUN-NZ
7 0.4 $7.6 FOREPLAY
6 0.9 $8.6 STRIKELINE
8 2.5 $13.8 ALIZES
9 4.0 $28.1 DANBIRD
3 4.7 $39.6 LILANDO
4 5.0 $43.0 DONT TELL TOM

and of course


CBZ 7 10.00
seln mgn price
7 0.0 $5.5 LEG IRONS
12 0.0 $5.6 SERPENTINE
9 3.3 $15.6 RED HOT PEPPER
8 3.4 $16.2 GRANDLY
3 4.2 $24.2 WINNING BELLE
5 4.7 $31.2 MAHTOUM
14 4.7 $31.9 LUTALO
1 4.7 $31.9 ANOTHER WARRIOR

Though I must warn my millions of fans out there - I couldn't be bothered doing the form for that Canterbury race so I cheated and just took my computer's tips...... Go the computer!

Caufield race 6

2 Taikun
1 Fastnet Rock
3 Lilando
4 Dont tell Tom
7Foreplay
8 Alizes
9 Danbird

Canterbury race 7

3 Winning belle
7 Leg irons
9 Red hot pepper
2 Don raphael
5 Mahtoum
8 Grandly
6 Moorings melody

Just take out any scratchings thanks Sportz,

Red Hot Pepper and Nkuni are early scratchings from the Cup.

Hopeful........
 

Caulfield r6
2-Taikun 3.50
6-Strikeline 4.00
3-Lilando 5.50
7-Foreplay 9.00
8-Alizes 17.00

..no fastnet rock!??????


Canterbury r7
3- Winning Belle 4.00
12-Serpentine 6.00
7- Leg Irons 8.50
8- Grandly 8.50
4- Saturday Fever 10.0


all the best everyone

Bring it home the mug! You can still win!! Forget what they say! Rocky won! So can you!!!! ADRIAN!! ADRIAAAAANNNNN!!!!!!!!!!

Just as a general question and not having a dig at anyone. If you are doing ratings with any degree of certainty can anyone explain a system that would not have either Fastnet Rock in the Oakleigh Plate or Winning Belle in the Canterbury Cup at least in their top 2.


I realise so very well that racing is a game of opposing opinions but to me these two "neddies" I would have thought would be right at the top of anybody's ratings, no matter what method you use.

Of course I could be setting myself up for a big slice of humble pie but I just don't understand it.

Good Punting

CAULFIELD
1 FASTNET ROCK (74.0) $3.40
2 TAIKUN (73.0) $4.30
3 LILANDO (71.5) $6.00
7 FOREPLAY (68.5) $12.20
6 STRIKELINE (68.0) $14.30
----------------------------
8 ALIZES (67.0) $19.00

CANTERBURY
3 WINNING BELLE (68.0) $2.00
5 MAHTOUM (61.5) $9.50
6 MOORING'S MELODY (60.5) $12.50
14 LUTALO (59.5) $16.70
12 SERPENTINE (58.0) $25.00
----------------------------
4 SATURDAY FEVER (58.0) $25.00

where's the eye of the tiger song when you need it..
 

Duritz...
Your a funny man...I think ADRIAAANN is the only word one has deciphered in the whole of the rocky balboa script...The rest is just a blubbering of words overlapping each other..
For me to win as Ivan Drago said .." I MUST BREAK YOU"....haha

Top Rank..
My explanation for what its worth. You will notice i dont have fastnet rock at all in the top five. For me i found this ratings challenge more of an oppurtunity to experiment a different method, as i dont really use a weight rating method to make my betting selections. so i thought i would try and use the wizard to see how they fair. Just like every other rating methods, i believe they will throw up a discrepency now and then.
But i agree that fastnet rock will most likely start favourite..

An attempt to explain from a small time novice player.

Hi Top Rank,

I didn't have them in my top two for one reason only....

There are obvious chances which every man and his dog (or cat) will tip, then there's the overlooked horses capable of winning.

Alizes won first up last time carrying 58kg by 4 lengths.
Taikun by 1.3 lengths carrying 56.5

They'd both have to have a serious chance in this.

Ratings Challenge (Jan 26)
 

Caulfield Race 6
2. Taikun
3. Lilando
1. Fastnet Rock
4. Don't Tell Tom
8. Alizes
6. Strikeline (Res.)

Canterbury Race 7
3. Winning Belle
2. Don Raphael
6. Mooring's Melody
5. Mahtoum
14. Lutalo
4. Saturday Fever (Res.)

Thanks,
QFB

It's not January, you idiot.....
 

Whoops! Make that Feb 26, not Jan!

I feel better now.

Cheers,
QFB

Thanks for the reply Chrome.

Are you saying that you are tipping with the hope that you get a winner that the rest of the crowd will not get. You are not actually saying that The Rock or The Belle are not excellent chances with you.

I just thought we were tipping with what we really think about the race.

Good Punting

MR6
1 11x1-Fastnet Rock (6) 2.50
7 1321-Foreplay (5) 6.20
3 14x5-Lilando (8) 6.80
4 111x-Don't Tell Tom (1) 9.30
2 140x-Taikun (9) 10.70

SR7
3 Winning Belle 2.50
5 Mahtoum 5.00
8 Grandly 6.80
14 Lutalo 10.70
6 Mooring's Melody 12.50
7 Leg Irons (reserve)

Gday All

Sportz. I will be workin so I have thrown an xtra in In Syd... just mark em in order

Race 6 3:30 PM Oakleigh Plate. Handicap
Group 1 Apprentices Cannot Claim.
1 Fastnet Rock $3.91
7 Foreplay $5.21
3 Lilando $6.98
6 Strikeline $9.31
9 Danbird $12.22


Race 7 10:00 PM De Bortoli - Canterbury Cup. Handicap
Group 3 Apprentices Cannot Claim.
3 Winning Belle $3.63
14 Lutalo $6.48
12 Serpentine $11.34
7 Leg Irons $11.34
4 Saturday Fever $15.13
1 Another Warrior $15.13

They are excellent chances, and this is a ratings comp, not a tipping comp. I realise.

Just to demonstrate, here are the ratings I have.

12 Serpentine 58
9 Red Hot Pepper 56
8 Grandly 56
5 Mahtoum 55
14 Lutalo 54
3 Winning Belle 54
6 Mooring's Melody 53

AND

8 Alizes 64
2 Taikun 58
4 Don't Tell Tom 56
1 Fastnet Rock 55
3 Lilando 55
6 Strikeline 54
7 Foreplay 53

I'm not doing that well, so I've experimented with a different method

Best of luck today.

Caulfield Race 6:
Fastnet Rock $2.30
Foreplay $6.50
Lilando $8.50
Taikun $11.50
Strikeline $15.50
Alizes $20.00

Canterbury Race 7:
Winning Belle $3.50
Mahtoum $6.00
Another Warrior $8.50
Mooring's Melody $8.50
Don Raphael $11.00
Saturday Fever $15.80

Oakleigh Plate.
1 Fastnet Rock
3 Lilando
6 Strikeline
7 Foreplay
8 Alizes
Res 5 Legally Bay

De Bortoli - Canterbury Cup.
3 Winning Belle
5 Mahtoum
7 Leg Irons
4 Saturday Fever
2 Don Raphael
Res 12 Serpentine

Oakleigh Plate

1. Fastnet Rock $2.25
7. Foreplay $3.75
3. Lilando $7.50
6. Strikeline $8.50
8. Alizes $51

Then 9,2,4

Canterbury Cup

3. Winning Belle $3.00
5. Mahtoum $6.50
8. Grandly $8.50
6. Mooring's Melody $10
2. Don Raphael $12

Then 12,4,14

Cheers,
H.

CAUFIELD RACE 6

8 ALIZES 3.1
1 FASTNET ROCK 4.9
2 TALKUIN 6.7
7 FOREPLAY 8.2
3 LILANDO 10.9


CANTERBURY RACE 7

3 WINNING BELLE 2.9
2 DON RAPAHEL 3.5
5 MAHTOUM 15.1
8 GRANDLY 15.3
1 ANOTHER WARRIOR 16.3

Oakleigh Plate.

6
Strikeline $3

7
Foreplay $3.50

3
Lilando $3.75

1
Fastnet Rock $4.25

9
Danbird $8.75



Canterbury Cup

3
Winning Belle $2.25

1
Another Warrior $2.75

11
Caught Courting $3.75

2

Don Raphael $5.00

13

Nkuni $10.50

Good Luck to all today, I expect the winners to be well found today.


Oakleigh Plate

1. Fastnet Rock
2. Foreplay
3. Alizes
4. Taikun
5. Lilando

Canterbury Cup

1. Winning Belle
2. Don Raphael
3. Saturday Fever
4. Mahtoum
5. Moorings Melody

SEGMENTS?????? :o

I had it rated last at $114 on my ratings. Well, I guess it was technically a good overlay seeing as it started at $239 on Unitab.

This week:

Top Rank (42.5 + 75) 117.5
Jimmy (42.5 + 70) 112.5
Sportz (42.5 + 62.5) 105
zorro (42.5 + 62.5) 105
La Mer (42.5 + 60) 102.5
Heavyweight (42.5 + 60) 102.5
ubetido (37.5 + 50) 87.5
xpt driver (42.5 + 42.5) 85
QuickFunBet (30 + 52.5) 82.5
Dr Ron (37.5 + 45) 82.5
Duritz (35 + 30) 65
kiwi (27.5 + 35) 62.5
The mug (7.5 + 40) 47.5
Chrome Prince (25 + 7.5) 32.5


Overall:

Sportz 657.5
zorro 632.5
La Mer 605
Top Rank 590
Jimmy 565
QuickFunBet 522.5
Heavyweight 512.5
xpt driver 510
Duritz 495
Filante 482.5
ubetido 472.5
Dr Ron 470
The mug 390
Chrome Prince 355
Shaun 292.5
kiwi 155

Sportz you continue to flog us all.....

I am going to make a charge now. Watch, all, I am posied to pounce!!!!

March will be the month of Duritz!!!!!

Hmmm, don't know about that.

Anyway, I could possibly have been further in front. I should have had the first 5 home in Winning Belle's race on Saturday, but I let my personal opinion influence my ratings. As a result I had Saturday Fever rated 6th instead of in the top 5 as it really should have been. There's a lesson there. Don't let personal opinion influence the way you rate a race.

Hey Duritz "posied to pounce" - sounds a bit ********y to me!

This week's races:

CAULFIELD R5-3.15 CARLTON DRAUGHT CARLYON CUP 1600 M
($151000) Quality (GROUP 3)

1 MUMMIFY Lee Freedman D Nikolic 17 60
2 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted B E Johns 11 56
3 RIZON Cliff Brown S W Arnold 15 54.5
4 HOMEWRECKER (NZ) Ray Lawson M Pegus 16 53.5
5 ROMAN ARCH Robbie Laing D Oliver 8 53.5
6 BEAUTIFUL GEM Lee Freedman 9 52
7 BRIDIE BELLE (NZ) Chris Wood 18 52
8 NIAGARA FALLS Peter G Moody Steven King 5 52
9 PRETORIUS (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith N Ryan (a) 12 52
10 SURE BET Mark Minervini Dale Smith 3 52
11 LIGHTNING COMMAND Brian Mayfield-Smith J Benbow (a) 4 52
12 SPEEDY KING Graham Woolston B Shinn (a) 2 52
13 UMBER Kelvin Smith W J Hokai 6 52
14 REQUISITE (NZ) Michael Moroney G Childs 14 52
15 AIR COOLED (NZ) Jamie Edwards S Baster 7 52
16E GRUNDY'S CROSSING Barbara Marshman P Mertens 13 52
17E LANDSDOWN HOUSE (NZ) John Hawkes D Gauci 10 52
18E CAVEAT EMPTOR Shane Nichols A Findlay 1 52

ROSEHILL R7-4.15 COOLMORE CLASSIC 1500 M
($605475) F&M Quality (GROUP 1)

1 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE (NZ) Grahame Begg N Rawiller 9 57.5
2 UNEARTHLY (NZ) David Payne J Cassidy 3 55
3 INFINITE GRACE John Symons J Byrne 8 54.5
4 LOTTERIA Gai Waterhouse C Munce 10 54.5
5 HOLLOW BULLET John McArdle G Boss 11 54
6 TIMBOURINA Tony Wildman B Pengelly 16 54
7 BESAME MUCHO Bart Cummings M A Cahill 13 53.5
8 FORUM FLOOZIE (NZ) John Hawkes C Brown 4 53.5
9 HEC OF A PARTY Gai Waterhouse H Bowman 19 53.5
10 DANNI MARTINE Guy Walter D Beadman 20 53
11 BUSH HONEY Guy Walter R M Quinn 7 52.5
12 GOLDEN WEEKEND Paul Cave J Innes 5 52
13 TREZEVANT Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 14 52
14 JOHAN'S TOY Guy Walter D Beasley 12 52
15 IMANA Guy Walter J Ford 6 52
16 CHATELAINE Peter G Moody J Benbow (a) 17 52
17E PENTELIKON Kevin Moses R McLeod 1 52
18E NEVER SAD Ruth Cooper P Ferris 18 52
19E TUI SONG (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 15 52
20E PEKALAN Albert Stapleford M A Cahill 2 52

BIG fields, but a few of them are emergencies. Will be a real test. The Coolmore is notoriously tough to work out. Will be a great effort to rate that one correctly.

If possible name your top 5 and then a couple of reserves in case of scratchings.

Good luck. :)

Is this now the longest thread in forum history

CAULFIELD R5-3.15 CARLTON DRAUGHT CARLYON CUP 1600 M
($151000) Quality (GROUP 3)
2 2x63 Lad of the Manor (NZ) (11) $4.31
1 00x0 Mummify (17) $6.49
6 x221 Beautiful Gem (9) $8.62
13 5x22 Umber (6) $9.46
15 1332 Air Cooled (NZ) (7) $11.74
10 5131 Sure Bet (3) $19.74
5 5835 Roman Arch (8) $23.08
ROSEHILL R7-4.15 COOLMORE CLASSIC 1500 M
($605475) F&M Quality (GROUP 1)
5 x122 Hollow Bullet (11) $4.81
4 11x1 Lotteria (10) $6.81
1 x244 Our Egyptian Raine (NZ) (9) $8.08
14 5x33 Johan's Toy (12) $11.22
3 7x03 Infinite Grace (8) $11.47
10 x541 Danni Martine (20) $20.00
13 3x15 Trezevant (14) $20.26

Lotteria is the most impressive WFA mare I've seen since Sunline.

Not sure, but I think we'll take this challenge through to the end of the Autumn Carnival. Then we'll decide if we want to continue or do something a little bit different.

Interesting that the prepost on Mummify is around 20/1.

Perhaps that series of duckeggs will put punters off.
Was only beaten 2.3L in The Orr and the extra 200m and being fitter should give a place hope.

I don't have anything to say, just thought I'd make the thread a little longer again.






























Blah blah blah.

Mummify around 9.00 prepost this afternoon.

CaulfieldRace 5

2 Lord of the manor
8 Niagara falls
1 Mummify
5 Roman arch
6 Beautiful gem
10 Sure bet
12 Speedy king

Rosehill race 7

4 Lotteria
1 Our egyptian raine
5 Hollow bullet
14 Johans toy
10 Danni Martine
9 Hec of a party
3 Infinite grace

Duritz,

Interesting call considering she has never started at WFA and has only run against her own age.

But she is very good and is the one to beat tomorrow.