Is this your own spreadsheet from when you started?

Yes

Are you absolutely certain that the drift/lay bet percentages are calculating correctly? I.E. that firmers are sometimes bet or lay propositions as are drifters.

Yes


EDITED: Actually, upon thinking about it, you could be experiencing a temporary trend.
I thought about what you said a few weeks ago myself about a high priced horse spoiling an otherwise good day. It sometimes certainly works out that way, but to balance it out, when a drifter goes from $3.00 to $5.50 and you can get up to $6.00 on Betfair, it makes up for it.

This is what I thought, it may be trend or a correction, time will tell. (only watching for now)

Crackone,

Here's some more information, if you find it helpful.

Laying the horses (fitting the criteria) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

194 wagers
57.11 units profit (less 5% commission)
29.44% POT


Backing the horses (fitting the criteria) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

107 wagers
7.83 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.32% POT

Laying the horses (regardless of the rules) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

301 wagers
49.29 units profit
16.37% POT

Backing the horses (regardless of the rules) opening @ $4.00 or longer:

301 wagers
-51.88 units profit
-17.23% POT

** These figures are based on opening price at the 0min 0sec mark, not the flucs, not the final and not the Betfair price. The actual profit and loss is based on the Betfair price.

Hi Chrome

I must be doing something wrong (or right!). Yesterday was my best day by far using your system. ps I never, NEVER, back odds on, and I did chicken out of some bets, both lay and back, using my own judgement.

Good stuff Mark!

There are plenty of variations to my original criteria, and as Crack One pointed out, there's a lot of variation to make money out of.

The whole thing rotates on identifying a profitable trend one way or the other, and identifying when a horse is backable or layable. Within that there is plenty of room to make adjustments to suit personal style.

Well done.

Poor day today...

A loss of 16.17 units, which I think breaks the record for the worst day ever.

However,

May Tally

476 wagers
11.93 units profit (less 5% commission)
2.51% POT

April / May Tally

1379 wagers
104.11 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.55% POT

After such a strong April, if I lose the profit for May at anytime I will stop betting and record the rest of May, before restarting in June.

Perhaps the only funny thing about this was Sunshine Coast Race 3 where the caller says "And they settle down to fight it out clear of Catchit"

I wasn't aware that cats left deposits on the Sunshine Coast track :D

Chrome

I love a good conspiracy theory. Things have gone downhill a little since you made your method public. Wonder who you sent it to ;)

Angry Pixie,

I don't think it's who I sent it to at all, and I was very careful not to publish it fully on the forum.

It's kind of easy to blame a bad run on things like that, if anything it could be that those using it are betting back onto IAS causing some fluctuations (although I also doubt that), the whole idea was to solely use Betfair so things like that did not occur.

That could be one explanation, but in reality there are probably quite a few other reasons for the downturn, which is why I'll stop if May goes to a loss and reassess.

Having said that, it's quite likely that the next few days could recoup all losses.

Yes natural ebb and flow I suspect. It's a very interesing approach that appears to have opened the door to quite a few variations. :)

Yes, natural ebb and flow AP.

Got it all back plus more today.

Just waiting for the last to jump and will post tally ;)