..... and she's not a mare yet. :)

Hey sportz !!
are you putting up this weekends races ??

Already done that. Caul R5 and Rose R7. :)

oh i mean on the forum...i dont think Paddys around....heaps of good races to discuss :)

Okay.

thanks dude.....what would we do without you,,

Probably have a lot more room on the forum.

Ratings Challenge
 

Caulfield Race 5
14. Requisite
2. Lad Of The manor
9. Pretorius
6. Beautiful Gem
8. Niagara Falls
10. Sure Bet (1st Res.)
13. Umber (2nd Res.)

Rosehill Race 7
4. Lotteria
10. Danni Martine
1. Our Egyptian Raine
5. Hollow Bullet
3. Infinite Grace
15. Imana (1st Res.)
9. Hec Of A Party (2nd Res.)

Thanks,
QFB

LOL yes sorry for my presumptions.

Presumption 1 - Yes she is not yet a mare, hopefully nothing but time stands in her way in that regard. I just watch her and don't think of her as a 3YOF, there are NO 3yoF I have seen that good.

Presumption 2 - That she hasn't raced at WFA. But a formality. She is a WFA mare in the making, it doesn't matter that she's yet to compete at WFA, b/c before Fastnet Rock had raced against open age I was telling friends he's the best sprinter in the country. Sunline was a top WFA mare prior to racing at WFA. Lotteria is the same. (Technically, she has raced WFA, by racing set weights against her own age, but I know that's not the same so I won't claim that).

If she loses tomorrow (without acts of God intervening) I'll be very interested to figure out why. Mind you, I am only marking her about $4 on an 80% value market, but I'm being conservative.

Also BTW if they beat Grand Armee I'll run down Flinders St naked.

New and Unimproved..
 

i have tweaked methods a tad...hopefully for the better

Caulfield Race 5
2 Lad of the Manor 4.10
6 Beautiful Gem 4.10
14 Requisite 7.15
1 Mummify 12.3
5 Roman Arch 12.3

Rosehill Race 7
4 Lotteria 3.95
1 Our Egyptian Raine 5.90
5 Hollow Bullet 6.90
13 Trezevant 11.80
10 Danni Martine 16.00

Good luck all.

p.s. Duritz...i hope grand armee wins for your sake, cos flinders st spans a fair length, its raining in melbourne and it will be be very very cold...hahaha

MR5
2 Lad of the Manor (NZ) (11) 2.50
1 Mummify (17) 7.50
12 Speedy King (2) 9.30
9 Pretorius (NZ) (12) 9.30
5 Roman Arch (8) 10.70

SR7
4 Lotteria 2.60
1 Our Egyptian Raine 4.10
5 Hollow Bullet 7.50
3 Infinite Grace 10.70
14 Johan's Toy 15.00

CAU 5 3.15
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $4.5 LAD OF THE MANOR
8 1.2 $8.9 NIAGARA FALLS-NZ
9 1.2 $9.0 PRETORIUS
12 1.3 $9.2 SPEEDY KING
6 1.9 $16.2 BEAUTIFUL GEM
1 2.3 $22.9 MUMMIFY
5 2.7 $37.1 ROMAN ARCH
10 2.7 $37.3 SURE BET

ROS 7 4.15
seln mgn price name
4 0.0 $4.2 LOTTERIA
7 1.6 $11.6 BESAME MUCHO
3 1.8 $12.7 INFINITE GRACE
1 1.8 $13.6 OUR EGYPTIAN RAI
5 1.9 $14.4 HOLLOW BULLET
9 2.0 $16.9 HEC OF A PARTY
15 2.4 $24.8 IMANA
16 2.4 $25.2 CHATELAINE


Go the month of Duritz!!

Standouts in each of these races. Unbeaten Lotteria was showed impressive acceleration to emerge from the pack and swamp the leaders first up over 1400m. Being by Redoute's Choice, she will improve as she steps up in distance and even in a very strong field today, she's clearly the pick. Multiple Group winner Our Egyptian Raine, VRC Oaks winner Hollow Bullet and the high class sprinters Besame Mucho and Infinite Grace should battle out the placings.

I have them

4. Lotteria $2.2
1. Our Egyptian Raine $8
5. Hollow Bullet $8
7. Besame Mucho $10
3. Infinite Grace $10

In the Melbourne race Lad of the Manner picks himself: 3rd up, improver, high strike rate, likes the track, loves the distance...even if it rains he should win.

I have them

2. Lad of the Manor $2.7
6. Beautiful Gem $6
5. Roman Arch $10
12. Speedy King $10
13. Umber $10

Caulfield Race 5
Lad of the Manor $4.50
Beautiful Gem $5.50
Sure Bet $7.00
Requisite $9.00
Umber $12.00
Air Cooled $14.00

Rosehill Race 7
Lotteria $3.90
Hollow Bullet $5.20
Our Egyptian Raine $6.80
Danni Martine $9.00
Infinite Grace $12.50
Johan's Toy $16.50

MR5

2. Lad of the Manor $2.65
1. Mummify $4.50
6. Beautiful Gem $4.75
14. Requisite $17.00
10. Sure Bet $41.00
5. Roman Arch $51.00

SR7

4. Lotteria $1.40 (!)
5. Hollow Bullet $10.00
13. Trezevant $21.00
10. Danni Martine $41.00
9. Hec of a Party $41.00
1. Our Egyptian Raine $51.00

Cheers,

H.

Coolmore Classic

1. Lotteria
2. Hollow Bullet
3. Our Egyptian Raine
4. Johan's Toy
5. Trezevant


Carlyon Cup

1. Lad of the Manor
2. Beautiful Gem
3. Requisite
4. Umber
5. Pretorius

Filante, nice summation of your horses chances. Well done, good solid reasoning.

Good Punting.

1 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE $3.25
4 LOTTERIA $3.50
5 HOLLOW BULLET $6.50
7 BESAME MUCHO $9.00
10 DANNI MARTIN $12.25

1 Mummify $3.00
2 Lad of the Manor $3.50
6 Beautiful Gem $6.25
10 Sure Bet $7.75
5 Roman Arch $11.50

Carlton Draught Carlyon Cup

2 Lad Of The Manor
6 Beautiful Gem
13 Umber
10 Sure Bet
15 Air Cooled

12 Speedy King


Coolmore Classic.
4 Lotteria
5 Hollow Bullet
1 Our Egyptian Raine
14 Johan's Toy
10 Danni Martine

12 Golden Weekend

Gday All

this is how I see these races... they look so obvious that there will probably be an upset..

5 CAULFIELD
3:15pm Carlton Draught Carlyon Cup (Gr 3) 1600m
Group III $151,000.00
Apprentices Cannot Claim Handicap Min Hcp Wgt : 52.0
No. Form Price Horse Name (Barrier)
2 2x63 $2.7 Lad Of The Manor (NZ) (11)
1 00x0 $6.4 Mummify (17)
6 x221 $11.2 Beautiful Gem (9)
11 617x $14.9 Lightning Command (4)
5 5835 $20.7 Roman Arch (8)

7 ROSEHILL
4:15pm Coolmore Classic (Gr 1) 1500m
3yo+ Fillies & Mares Group I $606,675.00
Apprentices Cannot Claim Handicap Min Hcp Wgt : 52.0
No. Form Price Horse Name (Barrier)
4 11x1 $3.4 Lotteria (10)
1 x244 $6.1 Our Egyptian Raine (NZ) (9)
13 3x15 $10.7 Trezevant (14)
9 08x3 $10.7 Hec Of A Party (19)
7 90x0 $14.3 Besame Mucho (13)

CAULFIELD R5
2 LAD OF THE MANOR (71.0) $2.10
6 BEAUTIFUL GEM (68.5) $3.70
5 ROMAN ARCH (64.5) $10.00
13 UMBER (64.5) $10.00
15 AIR COOLED (64.5) $10.00
-------------------------
10 SURE BET (64.5) $10.00


ROSEHILL R 7
4 LOTTERIA (72.0) $3.90
5 HOLLOW BULLET (68.5) $8.60
10 DANNI MARTINE (68.5) $8.60
14 JOHAN'S TOY (68.0) $13.80
1 OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE (66.0) $16.10
-------------------------
9 HEC OF A PARTY (66.0) $16.10

Caufiield Race 5

2 Lad of the manor 2.7
1 Mummify 4.3
6 Beautiful gem 7.7
14 requisite 13.6
11 lightning command 22.1

Rosehill Race 7

4 Lotteria 1.7
5 Hollow Bullet 5.9
13 Trezevant 13.3
7 Besame mucho 32.5
9 hec pf a party 54.7

No change to the order, but I made a mistake with the rated prices for Caul R5. These are the correct prices:

2 LAD OF THE MANOR (71.0) $3.10
6 BEAUTIFUL GEM (68.5) $5.50
5 ROMAN ARCH (64.5) $14.80
13 UMBER (64.5) $14.80
15 AIR COOLED (64.5) $14.80
---------------------------
10 SURE BET (64.5) $14.80

For some reason, I just knew that Niagara Falls was going to run well today. I pushed it up higher in my ratings today when the rain came, but still not high enough to put it in the top 5. :o

Well done to Dr Ron, QuickFunBet and Duritz who did have it in their 5.

Quite a few people had Danni Martine in their top 5. Well done.

I ended up backing it. I was amazed at the price. $18.90!!! I thought it would be around 7 or 8 dollars. Good old outside barrier again gives you a better price. I had 3 of the first 4 home and the other one was one of my old favourites Forum Floozie which I've backed so many times. The first 4 paid $40343!

Dr Ron thrashed us all this week:

Dr Ron (80 + 25) 105
QuickFunBet (30 + 35) 65
Duritz (57.5 + 5) 62.5
Sportz (22.5 + 35) 57.5
La Mer (15 + 25) 40
Jimmy (15 + 25) 40
Heavyweight (15 + 25) 40
kiwi (20 + 20) 40
The mug (15 + 20) 35
zorro (17.5 + 10) 27.5
Filante (22.5 + 5) 27.5
Top Rank (15 + 10) 25
Chrome Prince (15 + 10) 25
xpt driver (20 + 0) 20
ubetido (15 + 5) 20

Brilliant effort by Dr Ron in MR5 getting the first 4 in his 5 selections. Well done! And after a couple of months, someone has finally scored a duck on one of these races. Bad luck xpt. :o

Overall leaderboard:

Sportz 715
zorro 660
La Mer 645
Top Rank 615
Jimmy 605
QuickFunBet 587.5
Dr Ron 575
Duritz 557.5
Heavyweight 552.5
xpt driver 530
Filante 510
ubetido 492.5
The mug 425
Chrome Prince 380
Shaun 292.5
kiwi 195

Thanks forthe acknowledgement sportz, this week I decided to add some bonuses for prepost odds, which obviously helped, especially with niagara falls being the second pick in fridays market at 8.00. It seems fridays market was more accurate than saturdays?

Anyway I was due for one half decent week. Maybe I will stick with my new bonuses.

A pity I missed that Wednesday tipping some weeks back otherwise I might be a bit closer Sportz?

It often is and usually provides better value.

May not have made a lot of difference. If you remember, I decided to only count the best 2 scores out of 3 at that stage, so as to not greatly disadvantage people who couldn't post ratings on that day. I don't think you would have missed out on a whole lot. Probably 20 points at the most.

I would assume that saturdays market is more betting based than fridays which be more of a raw assessment. or am I wrong in my thinking?

A lot of papers around the country use those WA Tabform assessments in Friday's paper. Some papers do have their own prices for their local meetings though. Some of them then have changed markets in Saturday's papers, I guess as you said reflecting movements in betting. But plenty of papers do stick with exactly the same odds in Friday and Saturday papers. If you have a paper that has different markets, I would go with the Friday one. It will often tend to produce better value.

The markets I referred to were in the Herald-Sun in Victoria.

I use the Courier Mail and they also had Niagara Falls at $8 yesterday. It was $15 today.

This week's races:

FLEMINGTON R6-3.15 SEPPELT WINES NEWMARKET HANDICAP 1200 M
1 FASTNET ROCK Paul Perry G Boss 7 57
2 SPECIAL HARMONY Lee Freedman Steven King 6 54
3 ALINGHI Lee Freedman D Oliver 3 53.5
4 KEENINSKY (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Gauci 2 52
5 DANBIRD Danny O'Brien M Pegus 10 51
6 DON'T TELL TOM John Collins S Seamer 9 51
7 FOREPLAY Mathew Ellerton N Ryan (a) 5 51
8 GENERAL BAYTON Donna Gaskin B Fenech 1 51
9 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT Tony Vasil S Baster 8 51
10 OUR QUIVIRA (NZ) Peter G Moody B Shinn (a) 4 51

ROSEHILL R7-4.15 DUBAI ROSEHILL GUINEAS 2000 M
1 JYMCAREW Bob Thomsen R M Quinn 10 56.5
2 OUTBACK PRINCE Anthony Cummings H Bowman 7 56.5
3 EREMEIN Allan Denham C Brown 8 56.5
4 CHEVAL DE TROY (NZ) Colin Jillings D Beadman 2 56.5
5 ULYSSES Tony McEvoy L Cassidy 4 56.5
6 SVENSKA (NZ) Graeme Rogerson D Beasley 5 56.5
7 DIGNITY PRINCE Neil Boyle J Sheehan 6 56.5
8 HIGH CEE (NZ) Bart Cummings C Munce 3 56.5
9 WINDON Neil Godbolt Dale Spriggs 1 56.5
10 NEVIS (NZ) David Payne J Cassidy 9 54.5

Small fields this week unfortunately. The Newmarket looks like a two horse race, but even so it will still be interesting to see who has which one on top.

Good luck. :)

Cheval De Troy in the Sydney race. Had a significant break before a fantastic first up third. Definitely the one to beat.

In Melbourne, Alinghi.

For mine Fastnet Rock is a weight carrier. He won't go any slower for extra kilos, and if that's the case isn't actually at any disadvantage, and should therefore win.

MR6
3 2x21-Alinghi (3) 2.60
1 1x11-Fastnet Rock (7) 3.10
7 3215-Foreplay (5) 8.30
9 7162-Not a Single Doubt (8) 10.70
6 11x6-Don't Tell Tom (9) 15.00
emerg
10 x718-Our Quivira (NZ) (4) 37.50

SR7
1 2011-Jymcarew (10) 3.50
3 14x3-Cheval de Troy (NZ) (2) 3.90
2 4222-Eremein (8) 6.80
7 x516-Outback Prince (7) 7.50
4 3113-Dignity Prince (6) 9.30
emerg
6 5423-Svenska (NZ) (5) 15.00

Duritz, I tend to agree Re: Fastnet. His run in the Oakleigh i thought was somewhat affected by the weight he carried but the fact of the matter is he still won. That was round the bend at Caulfield where i would argue the weight was more of a disadvantage, especially given a poor caulfield record in the past. This is back in the straight and i can see no reason why he cannot carry the weight. The fact that Alinghi only has 53.5 seems redundant information in that there is only a 0.5 weight difference between them from the last run to this. If fastnet rock is the quality horse that people say he is, and by that i mean some pretty heavy comparisons to champion horses, then a .5 weight difference should make little difference.

Just my two cents.

Tenacious,

Don't agree with either of your two cents.

Fastnet didn't handle the track at Caulfield (not the weight). He meets Alinghi a kilo worse. The extra 200m from their last encounter favours Alinghi more than Fastnet.

Anyway, one of the two should win.

Cheers,

F

FLEMINGTON RACE 6
3 ALINGHI
2 SPECIAL HARMONY
1 FASTNET ROCK
9 NOT A SINGLE DOUBT
4 KEEINSKY

ROSEHILL RACE 7
1 JYMCAREW
3 EREMEIN
2 OUTBACK PRINCE
4 CHEVAL DE TROY
10 NEVIS

FLEMINGTON RACE 6

3 Alinghi
1 Fastnet Rock
9 Not A Single Doubt
7 Foreplay
6 Don't Tell Tom

4 Keeninsky

ROSEHILL RACE 7

4 Cheval De Troy
3 Eremein
1 Jymcarew
2 Outback Prince
5 Ulysses

10 Nevis