On Saturday 18.2.06 I thought there were two standouts in Sydney for the day:
SR6 1 Mnemosyne 4th (did anyone else have reservations regarding the ride?)
SR9 2 Men At Work WON($4.00w$1.90plNSW)
Also in Melbourne:
MR7 2 Undue 3rd ( $2.70plNSW)
MR7 3 Glamour Puss 4th
MR711Rewaaya 2nd ( $1.60plNSW)
Investing in the ratio of 1x5 returned a respectable POT and if astute punters followed this betting approach then this season's punting should return an ongoing profit/income stream.

Cheers.

The class horses came good again today, well as least one of them did. Mornington race 7 the Hareeba Sprint - two horses stood out on class Hollow Bullet & Ellicorsam. Hollow Bullet I couldn't have as while is has won about $1.5mil it was first-up having come off a very bad prep last start when it has seven runs without winning. OTOH, Ellicorsam, having its second start for the Freedman stable, is a Group 2 winner in Perth having won over $500,000 & was racing at its pet distance of 1200m (5 wins from 7 starts) today. Beautiful & at $7.50 top fluc it don't get any better!! :-)

So the simple theory is to just back the best class horse 1x5 ew. in a race and we are forever in clover ?

So what are the rock solid rules for working out the above? Do we go on average prize money, SR or our or someone else's idea of a runners 'potential' ? Or, is it some sort of combo of the three [or more requirements] that has solid rules?
Except for those races where the Class runner is obvious, if there is no solid rules to define the class runner, we are back to making subjective decisions about class and which runner is the best class in a race.

These are serious questions, I'm not trying to take the micky here, just trying to define and get my head around what is on the surface a great idea, but below the surface seems very vague and loose.

Example of vague and loose: How could anyone say before the race [considering the standard of runners involved] MR711 Rewaaya
2nd ( $1.60plNSW) was the class horse of the race to back? When it comes to Stakes, Group and any other high class races with many classy horses running, we are back to good old fashioned personal preferences and tipping.

The Aust. stakes result only proves [finally] Rewaaya could hold his head up in that class of race. Before the race that was an unknown even to the trainer who said the race was it's big test of class. We can't make money on Class back-fitting.

La Mer,

You could have made the 'class' claim for a couple of other runners in that race if the result had been different. Your blatantly back-fitting class.
Race 8 was another listed race. What happened to the 'class' runners?
Ulysses is a good horse but others in the race had arguably better class claims. It's so easy to point the finger after a race and say the class horse won.

Also La Mer, there was a very good reason NOT to back Ellicorsam at Monington [and it's odds reflected that], as anyone familiar with it's lay-out would tell you -the barrier for the distance. A Shocker and more good luck and top riding was involved in the win than just class or distance specialist. Con's Army has the claim for distance AND track, not Ellicorsam. Sure it had the class claim but could have easily lost it due to barrier draw. I thought it's SP was unders all things considered. Of course after the race it's all so easy to claim this and that.

How about some [future] prediction for Saturday based on 'class':-)

Quote from first post in this thread: "Horses with a win strike rate of 20-25% and an overall place percentage of >80%are generally deemed to be class horses. Generally, horses with this proven consistency ratio can be expected to perform similarly in the future". End quote.

A wonderful way to determine 'class', but with all the good races coming up, that describes a large % of the runners !!

too much science
 

ellicorsam, ulysses and precise timing had all won or placed in listed company within the past 3 starts.

kountethecash i think had not placed at this level since february last year
i have no argument with class of the horses that won.

Either have I topsy but boy, the cherry picking going on with back-fitting for the class winner in this thread is spectacular.

For ever back-fitted class horse winning that has been mentioned, I'll give you 10 cherry picked back-fitted class horses that we would have lost on. Another worn quote here is 'the class horse winning in 'elite' company' that should have been backed.
Can I ask who the 'elite' 'horses where that the [obvious?] 'class horse' was running against? Er... other class horses perhaps?

A little intellectual challenge regarding punting reality doesn't go astray and shouldn't be confused with disagreeing for the sake of it [a handy accusation when houses made of cards fall to the ground].

i know the feeling as what happened yesterday doesnt always happen.
for example petite oiseau was the launceston cup favorite and placed group 3 in the hobart cup last start.
i saw it run the start before when it finished (fourth i think) it was unable to take a run when offered and appeared lack dash.
i disregarded it yesterday on that count and its price was unrealistic.

punting is always a question of being right now and again and hope that you come out in front.

backfitting is one way of proving your ideas but when practised ahead e.g. on todays racing it is not so easy as so many horses may fit the profile.
recent placings in listed or group racing and a good price is probably the best i can do.
however i did back the 3 horses mentioned (for a change).
i have nothing at all today sir craiglee is the only listed horse running at canterbury and hasnt won since the cows came home.
it would be a lost cause trying to backfit sir craiglee

good to see the brake slipped a few pills in you drink there crash,you were starting to get all lippy again.....................

Mogadons mate. There great. Just add coke and knock em down! Does the trick every time.