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-   -   Staking to a profit (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=15862)

Crackone 14th May 2007 09:19 PM

[QUOTE=Crackone]47 bets on the races (had a couple on the trotts)
$127.46 return (betfair) no commission taken out
14 winners 29.78 strike rate
ave. price $3.60
Longest run of outs 8 and a 7.

47 units out
50.4 unit in

Bhagwan 15th May 2007 01:15 PM

Thanks for sharing your findings & well done.
The average price is excellent.
You are doing the right thing as to starting again a soon as any profit is shown.


Using that $10 as a starting point with a 6/1 divisor .
$10 = 1% of bank.
I feel a $1000 bank should do the trick.

One can go a lot of outs before bank becomes half.
If bank does become halved.
One idea is to rule off & start again with the remaining $500.


Dont forget their argument is... eventually it will fall over , well in that case , so will level stakes betting.
So if ones starting bank is $1000, whats it to be level stakes or progressional staking, chasing Favs?

Cheers.

crash 15th May 2007 02:19 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crackone
Hi Bhagwag
This is what I tried on Sunday backing every Fav. (51 bets)
$10 bet Div. 6 Target $60
When in profit start again.
When $60 down start again.
Ended the day $68 up, lost bank 2 times.
Use retirement plan would have won $120.

Wesmip1 it dose work thanks


The only way you could back 51 SP favorites on Sunday was after the jump! Me thinks a bit of post-race back-fitted 'betting' is going on. With all the other hoodwinking going on here we don't need a 'dose' of that too.

wesmip1 15th May 2007 03:38 PM

crash,

You can automate anything so it is very easy to place 51 bets on a sunday.

Good Luck.

crash 15th May 2007 04:20 PM

Oh really? A program that places a bet on the SP favorite which is often not known [it's called market time lag] until after the jump? What program would that be? Lol Lol :-))

I think it's called the 'back-fitted favorite program' isn't it?

michaelg 15th May 2007 04:53 PM

I think they are referring to the Betfair fave.

Interestingly, at Ballina race 8 today there were equal Betfair faves (nos. 7 and 10) when the race began, even confirmed on BAT. As the race was one of my Lay The Betfair Fave I was able to lay no.10 at the scheduled start-time at the price of $3.85 as it was the clear fave at that time. If the Staking Plan was automated I would presume it would have bet no.10 which was beaten by the other equal-fave.

But then again, - swings and roundabouts.

Crackone 15th May 2007 06:13 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
The only way you could back 51 SP favorites on Sunday was after the jump! Me thinks a bit of post-race back-fitted 'betting' is going on. With all the other hoodwinking going on here we don't need a 'dose' of that too.
Believe what you like Crash, I have no reason to make it up. As Michaelg has said these where betfair Fav. before the jump, believe it or not
Cheers

crash 16th May 2007 06:37 AM

All forum members are free to claim/doubt anything here. So feel free to claim anything you like.

Chrome Prince 16th May 2007 01:30 PM

I don't think anyone mentioned SP faves, did they?

I had 34 faves or dual faves, but they were only the ones covered by IAS and Betfair, so certain meetings were left out.

partypooper 16th May 2007 03:13 PM

I've done extensive research on Pre-post favs v SP favs, for preceisly that reason (you often don't know what is fav til it's too late) however I'm told that there are bookies who will accept wagers on the un-named favourite if that's the way you prefer to go.

My reasearch shows however that there's very little difference if any in the long run backing the pre-post fav instead, usually it's the same horse (some win some lose about 30% in both cases,) sometimes not and it wins sometime it loses .

Boy I managed to make that sound difficult, what I'm saying is that the SP fav wins about 30% of the time, and the pre-post fav. wins about 30% of the time though the selection will differ sometimes. Phew!

But taken overall theres very little in it, so to make life easier if I'm operating a mechanical plan I'll use the pre-post fav so my bets can be placed well before racing if necessary.
A word of warning though ALWAYS use the same source of the pre-post fav as publications differ.


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