Those figures are from the standard vegas/offshore line. TAB won't be nearly as efficient (slow to move lines etc).

Those results for the +6.5 and +7 don't include point buying (buy to +7.5).

I'll check out the TAB prices this week and see what they're like.

BTW, longer lined underdogs have done that well :wink:

Well their closing lines were all within half a point of the standard offshore line. Looks like they were generally shading the favourites a little.

Mr J,

After what you said, I thought I'd probably done way better than I could have expected out of this idea, so I decided to stop betting on them and just watch them for a while. Since that time 3 straight losers. Can you say again what you think would be the best way to go long term backing homedogs in the NFL? I don't want to back all of them, because I don't want a lot of bets. Do you suggest backing those given starts of 8 points and more??? Your figures show a 60% strike rate over 18 years.


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-11-24 10:41 ]