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HOLD YOUR TICKETS
This is unofficial but Savchuk may have won last night. The official site has her playing tonight and several bookies have priced up the game.
Funnily enough ESPN reported Savchuk as winning last night but I thought the mistake was there's and not the official site. Even if Tansugarn won and then withdrew for whatever reason, there's 3-4 players who would be promoted as the LL rather than Savchuk. Again, it's unofficial but this is such a small tournament with poor coverage that I wouldn't be surprised. Cross your fingers if you placed a bet. |
Regarding Savchuk - I was paid for a win, and very happy to receive it.
While I'm on, a big thanks to Marco, Betsy and Karla for all there info - I have been following you for a week or so, and am delighted with how it's going. Keep up the great work. CJ |
Thanks CJ -
I too have now been paid for the win so I guess that just about makes it official as I don't know too many bookies who willingly part with their cash. The amended update now reads: Bets 94; Won 68; Lost 26 Units Staked: 93 units; Won 17.44 units; ROI 18.5% |
You ripper - changed my whole day :)
Centrebet ticket - I took out the wager amount.. Thanks Marco
Karla |
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Bets 98; Won 70; Lost 28
Units Staked: 96 units; Won 17.27 units; ROI 17.6% Two wins and two losses for a very small loss. Both winners were avaliable at slightly better prices so it was possible to get a break-even position but I'll leave the early lines in the record. Pierce v Petrova Berlin: Round 3 This will be a big ask of Pierce but she's in superior form to Petrova at the moment and has had two good wins here in Berlin. She's also more experienced (90/41 clay record), rates clay as her favourite surface and, as mentioned yesterday, is very determined to play well during this swing. Pierce recently beat Petrova on hard which is only relevant because it is the Russian's favourite surface (Indian Wells 6:2 6:2). Mary should therefore enter this game with some confidence. Petrova certainly has the game to win today but a large part of her price reflects her reputation on hard where she's had most of her success. The slow European clay conditions don't really suit her game as she prefers it much faster (grass is her second-best surface). Petrova's clay record stands 44/30 but she hasn't beaten anyone of note on red clay for more than two years. Her best clay results have been on American green clay which has a higher speed-rating than red. That said, I'm going to be cautious and take a half unit. Pierce $2.50 HALF UNIT (This is an early line available at a few smaller books with poor margins. I expect better later). Shaughnessy v Bovina Berlin: Round 3 At the risk of contradicting myself I'm backing Shaughnessy - someone, as I said yesterday, I don't rate on clay. However if on current form she can beat Randriantefy in straight sets she can surely beat Bovina as red clay is far from the Russian's best surface. Sure she's competent but her second round match against Daniilidou yesterday showed her vulnerabilty as Daniilidou is very ordinary on the dirt. This was also evident in her struggle to beat Hantuchova in Warsaw last week as Hantuchova is another player who is ordinary on clay. There are minor concerns over Shaughnessy who has had a nagging back injury but according to reports, this didn't seem to hamper her yesterday. I'll take the long odds but another cautious approach for a half unit. Shaughnessy $4.75 @ Sportstab HALF UNIT (Maybe slightly better prices later) NOTE: If anyone with a Betfair account wants a small-stakes fun bet, lay Henin at around the $1.10 mark. A ten dollar bet returns around $100. My reasoning is Henin had to play 2 matches yesterday - both were 3-setters and she looked a tad ordinary in her losing sets. She must be knackered and played Warsaw last week with heavy strapping on her thigh. She'll probably come out and win but there's some 'beer-money' value at those prices. NOTE TWO: At this stage of the tournament Mauresmo stands out as the likely finalist from the bottom half of the draw. Henin, Clijsters, Sharapova and Kuznetsova are all in the top half. Mauresmo has to face Razzano today and maybe Petrova or Bovina, both of whom are vulnerable as explained in today's tips. She's worth backing now at $5.50 or more on Betfair which then gives you the opportunity to lay her back if she makes the final for a guaranteed profit. Mauresmo is currently rated 'number one' for clay form in my database (her record is 100/37 on clay). You could back her at the bookies but I doubt you'll get the same price as Betfair - Ladbrokes go $5.00. |
Bets 100; Won 70; Lost 30
Units Staked: 97 units; Won 16.27 units; ROI 16.7% A poor evening with two losses. Pierce was well supported in the betting and fought back in the second set but just wasn't good enough on the day. Shaughnessy was generally outclassed. Mauresmo v Petrova Berlin: QF Wrote about these two yesterday so won't repeat it here. Mauresmo's 101/30 record speaks for itself and after a very nervous start yesterday (trailed 0:4 first set), she went on to wipe Razzano off the court 6:4 6:2. There's a lot of ranking places and serious prize money up for grabs this week so I expect the top players like Mauresmo to be very focused. If she's on her game - and there's no reason to think she won't be - then Petrova faces a real struggle. Mauresmo $1.36 @ Ladbrokes (Early line) Kuznetsova v Schydner Berlin: QF Kuznetsova has been in great form over the past few weeks, displaying her power game in Warsaw and her determination in Berlin. Martinez really puched her yesterday in a close 3 setter, but Conchita is no mug on clay and her game is very difficult to counter. As a comparison, Kuznetsova beat Clijsters in Warsaw (2:6 6:2 6:3) while Schydner beat Clijsters yesterday after Kim self-destructed and then retired. Schydner was trailing 6:7 1:5 and saved 4 match points before Clijsters for some obscure reason, totally collapsed. Both Kuznetsova and Schydner are solid clay players but the Russian is in better form and is far more mentally stable than Schydner who, like quite a few of the players on tour, can throw in really shocking peformances. Kuznetsova is right on the value line but I'll take the bet. Kuznetsova $1.33 @ Will Hills (Early Line) NOTE: I still believe there's some value in Mauresmo outright around the $4.50 mark at Betfair. Her next two opponents will be Petrova and probably Bovina both of whom are very beatable on clay. In the top half of the draw, Henin plays Sharapova today which eliminates one of them so Mauresmo's price will certainly come in after tonight's game . . . should she win. Personally I'd only recommend this bet if you're able to lay back your stake at Betfair if needed should Mauresmo make the final. It will surely help our cause if Henin wins tonight. |
Bets 102; Won 70; Lost 32
Units Staked: 99 units; Won 14.27 units; ROI 14.4% Tough old game this punting. Not the best couple days after a promising start to the week. The semis are too tough to pick so we''ll wait for the finals. |
Rome Masters and Prague Open
http://www.pragueopen.cz/2005/index.php?setlang=en http://www.telecomitaliamasters.fed...home.asp?LNG=EN Two relatively large tournaments so a lot of games to be played over the next week. Bookies very slow to price up again so I'll post early lines. Better prices may be available from 5Dimes in an hour or so. Early lines from Pinnacle Daniilidou v Cho Prague: Round 1 Daniilidou is no superstar on clay but her Korean opponent is both inexperienced and unsuited to the surface (2/8 career record spanning several years). Cho is first up on the dirt while Daniilidou played with reasonable success in Warsaw and Berlin. Daniilidou $1.35 1 UNIT Nagyova v Tanasugarn Prague: Round 1 Nagyova is a competent clay player while Tanasugarn has a resord similar to Cho's. see last weeks write up Savchuk v Tanasugarn. This is basically a bet against the Thai. Nagyova $1.40 1 UNIT Kostanic v Osterloh Prague: Round 1 Kostanic has a solid clay record and is at home on the surface while Osterloh is a hard courter who relies on her big serve to keep her in games. The slow conditions won't suit her and historically she has struggled on the surface. Kostanic $1.25 1 UNIT Fedak v Stosur Rome: Round 1 Fedak came through qualies, has a better clay record than Stosur and has been in marginally better form over the past month or two. Stosur prefers it much faster, is first up on red clay and has a moderate 20/21 career record. Fedak $1.60 HALF UNIT Garrigues v Jidkova Rome: Round 1 Garrigues is a specialist clay-courter who shows a bit of tenacity on the dirt. She has a superior clay record to her opponent which is a poor 30/34. Garrigues also has better recent form - Jidkova lost in Berlin's first round to Vento-Kabchi who is very ordinary on clay. Garrigues $1.42 1 UNIT Jankovic v Randriantefy Rome: Round 1 I have a lot of respect for Randriantefy and she's won quite a few bets for me but her recent form is on the decline. In contrast, Jankovic is on the up and she is mentally very strong. Put in a very solid peformance in Berlin - showed she can play with the "big girls" on the dirt. Jankovic $1.33 1 UNIT Groenefled v Serra-Zanetti Rome: Round 1 Zanetti will be the home crowd favourite but she has a negative clay record with her best results coming on the Challenger tour. She did ok in Acupulco this year but Groenefeld has the better record and better recent form. The German showed her power htting in Berlin last week and has a couple of Challenger tournament wins on clay. Groenefeld $1.40 HALF UNIT Dechy v Camerin Round 1: Rome Camerin will be another home crowd favourite and while her clay record is ok, her recent form is terrible. She was beaten two weeks ago by 634 ranked Cornet on the Challenger clay circuit and was beaten in the first round of Amelia Island and Charleston. Dechy played well in Warsaw and should have enough today. Dechy $1.25 1 UNIT |
Bets 110; Won 75; Lost 35
Units Staked: 106 units; Won 13.37 units; ROI 12.6% Short on time so abbreviated picks: ALL 1 UNIT Smashnova-Pistolesi v Likhovtseva Rome: Round 1 Pistolesi has the clay skills to win this game against an indifferent Likhovtseva. Pistolesi $2.15 Pinnacle Garbin v Linetskya Rome: Round 1 Returning-from-injury Linetskya with moderate clay record meets in form Garbin. Garbin $2.20 Pinnacle Pennetta v Asagoe Rome: Round 1 Some concern over Pennetta's foot but home crowd favourite with great clay credentials. Pennetta $1.83 WillHill Razzano - Vento-Kabchi Rome: Round 1 In-form Razzano meets Kabchi who rates clay as her least favourite surface. Razzano $1.55 Pinnacle Vinci v Chladkova Rome: Round 1 Similar skill levels but Vinci will have crowd on her side and has recently won clay challenger. Vinci $2.25 Pinnacle Ivanovic v Golovin Rome: Round 1 Another game of similar skill levels. Ivanovic as been on red clay for a few weeks whereas Golovin's been off for a few weeks. Ivanovic $2.10 Pinacle |
Well done marco. You have a ton of ability on WTA form. Keep up the great work.
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