21 of 50 got up today (42% SR).
Yesterday there were 9 from 20 (45% SR).

Thanks to sport of kings.

Not sure if you meant to write 89 LAYS above. I actually wrote 89 DAYS out of last 100 DAYS. In that time I layed about 700 horses of which 11 won at an average price of $25. That should be pretty clear, I hope.

If you had simply coupled up the 2 shortest price neurals in each race today in a $10 quinella you would have won $960.
Out of interest was there a decent profit from the 41% winners?

Perhaps we should start a neurals thread instead of taking over Michael's DS thread?
Happy to do it if Michael wishes it to be.

SpeedyBen, no need to start a new (neural) thread. Please keep on posting here.

Laying Neurals update
 

When I reported in yesterday it was 5 o'clock and Ascot and Launceston hadn't run. That brought another 5 winners in for the Neural camp which meant 6 Back wins from 28 races after taking out Skyform favs. Not a good enough edge to Lay.

Interesting how in isolated areas, like TAS, No. 1 rated horses produced more winners. Reminds me of why the hi tech syndicates do so well in Hong Kong, only 2 racetracks and a limited number of horses to rate. Food for thought. Maybe if someone had the time, look at Win percentage of No 1 rated horses in Tas compared with the mainland?

MichaelG post mortum
 

Mate looking at the two horses that brought you undone yesterday, Executive Action, Ascot R8, was only having its 2nd start! Sacred Snaadee had dropped in class and they put a top hoop on board. It was a trainer's setup from the start! Had a kid on board in an Open last start, brought it back this time in a 0-71 Hcap and put a jockey on board with a near 48% strike rate for a place. This is what we're up against! I think your selection method is reasonable but once you get your shortlist have a look for anything sneaky.

Feeling versus Fact
 

True.

I just notice them more when I am going backwards.

Brilliant work on the trading by the way.

Regards,

Massive

Riconpaul, it was priced at $100 in Don Scott's market. However we applied a filter that no selection can have a T, D or C in its form, but a few days ago I decided to do away with this filter...look what happens!

And the other accident was having it's second career start - this is only the second time this has led to an accident, and I'm sure that including these selections are showing a profit because there have been many of them.

Thanks for your concern and observations.

Today's selections:

Gosford
4/16

Seymour
2/6
3/7

Yeppoon
1/3, 7
2/1, 10

Bunbury
3/1, 10
4/8
5/11
8/3

Riconpaul
Welcome,
Are you going to post your picks daily as Michealg does? I along with others are interested as to where this goes. Listing your picks allow some of us follow and maybe comment to improve.
Michealg posts his picks everyday and still maintains exclusivity (It must be the Kahunas) with his system. Beton

Living dangerously
 

Michaelg,
I didn't look at Yepoon but the only horses I was game to select were Bunbury R5/11 & R8/3 ; Seymour R2/6. The rest of your horses are all second starters, that's why there rated so poorly because they've got hardly any previous form for the computer to crunch, doesn't mean the horses don't have ability! Take Seymour R3/7 Gloreuse, last start encountered interference at 1400m & 1000m. Not saying it hasn't got a chance just unlucky first start. Look at Seymour R5/2 Spinning Time. 3 starts back came "0". 2 starts back came "1". It's your system and I wish you every success but I prefer to see at least 3 prev starts.

Reply to Beton
 

Hi Beton,
No mate, I'm not posting any selections, just observing other methods and help if I can. No, I gave up selecting horses years ago. As I say and keep saying if the ratings and tips were any good why would they be giving them away?
No, I just program 2 bots to Lay a specific price range for 1st Fav's and 3rd Fav's come what may, every race. Have a 4x recovery staking plan. Average a $70 -$80 a day profit on $5 bets. Never get rich but its good pocket money.

Thanks Massive. Much appreciated. :)

By any chance are you part of the West Stains Massive?

That's exactly what I'm looking for so that my bots do't go hungry. I don't suppose you can hint at the price ranges or email me at equalthree at yahoo dot com dot au?

I totally understand if you can't.

You won't get poor in a hurry either, mate, making 27,000 per annum tax free.

[QUOTE=Rinconpaul]Hi Beton,
. As I say and keep saying if the ratings and tips were any good why would they be giving them away?
QUOTE]

Hi Rinconpaul.

The Skyform Ratings you refer to in previous posts the T.A.B. pay a bucketload,
To everyrace.com for the use of their information.

Even back years ago when these were in a form guide called the Wizard,
This came at a cost, as did the Fax service they also operated way back then.

The ratings and the panels plus the D.F.S. service are only a small part,
Of what they offer to the T.A.B.

If you want everything EG.
Speed indicators
Rated prices.
Prev winning days + jockeys.
Negative or Positive "Form, Fitness, Distance, indicators etc.
You will have to pay a stack more, how do i know this, i have been,
Since 2007>

My advice is this, because it's free which it is not, somebody pays,
In this case the T.A.B. doesn't mean it's no good.

It is how you use that information that determines,
"PROFIT or Loss"

Cheers.
Garyf.

There's no such thing as a free lunch!
 

It might be unlucky for both of us to give my methods, but what I suggest you to do is go to Adrian Massey's website, www.adrianmassey.no-ip.org .Click on favourite statistics then after you've absorbed that click on custom report. Then start playing around. His database is over 10,000 races, all UK though. There are some sweet spots to be found wherein the return POT actually exceeds 100% for the Backers. Keep playing with it every possible condition is editible. For instance in the last 10 years 1st Fav's with a SP of 5-1 to 15-2 had a win stike rate of 12.9%. What does that tell you if you're laying, it has a 87.1% chance of losing. You then need to apply this research to Betfair stats locally.

Pity Adrian gave it up as it gets more out of date every day. It used to be right up to date for years.

Not a bad day - from the 11 selections there were 11 smiles for a profit of $76.57.

Well done Michaelg.

Riconpaul, you certainly have a different perspective to some on here and it comes across as a breath of fresh air. We can all do with that from time to time I feel so thank you for this. Can you explain briefly what the '4x' means with regards your recovery method?

Cheers LG

4x means bot increases stake after loss to recover a quarter of loss over next 4 bets plus original stake each bet. If all goes well at the end of a session you have made the original stake x number of bets. Where it can go pair shaped is if you strike 2 losses in a row and then another loss shortly after. This will test your nerve, best to set a max limit to lose and when triggered the bot stops betting.

ta mate.

LG

The psychology of longshot laying
 

Michael
You mentioned in an earlier post about the bank staying below a previous high for an extended period. I liken it to a share investment in that it has many small gains and then a correction to a lower level when it starts it's climb again. I have never owned a share which has outperformed my UK longshot lays, though.

Yes, SB, it's not a bad investment and buzz-inducer by laying outsiders via S.P. if one's got a good selection method.

Even though my current profit of $1,420 since 22 Jan Feb of laying a $333 liability (about 3 weeks of laying) is not at his highest it would well and truly be had I introduced the C, T, and D filter from day one. So I'm hopeful...

Worksheet data
 

I have the (Daily) worksheet data in excel if anyone is interested, I only request help in the summation of this data
I am on skype (feebles36)
Cheers

Thanks, Feebles.

As you know I am hopeless with computers. I identify the selections manually which unfortunately is always open to human error.

Today's selections:

Port Mac
3/9

Goulburn
4/2
7/2, 4, 10

Sale
1/16
3/3
4/11
5/11

Ipswich
3/9
4/6, 10
5/2, 4
6/11

Esperance
1/10, 11, 12
2/7, 10
5/9, 10
7/12

Moonee Valley
7/9

Hi Feebles.
I would be interested, and I would be more than happy to pass back any findings.
My addy is wally at wallyhughes dot com dot au.
Beton

Livin' in the 80's
 

Following in the footsteps of Michaelg and SpeedyBen I thought I'd try a twist on MG's system for laying longshots. Test on only 112 races. Rules: Tattsbet rating less than 90. Must have had 2 prev starts. No DWTC. SP > $10.
Based on $100 liability: 93 bets, no losses for a $281 profit after commission.
Encouraging, so I'll keep building a database of a 1000 races and let you know how it goes. For the Backers, of the 16 horses that passed the rules but had a SP less than $10, 6 won = 37.5% Win sr. You're right Michael about omitting DWTC form, this system would have gone down like the Titanic if I included it.

Rinconpaul,

But 2 prev starts do you mean career to date or this just run??

Cheers LG

Career to date
Cheers

As you say, Rinconpaul, it's encouraging.

With $281 in profit it means you can have two immediate accidents and still be $81 in profit.

Good luck.

Help with SP betting
 

Michaelg I've never used Betdfair SP before. In my calcs for livin' in the 80's I 've worked back from a $100 liability to end up with a stake of say $0.67 for a 150: 1 horse. Does Betfair make you start with the min $5 stake, so in this case the liability would be $745?
Regards
RP

Feebles
May God give you strength.
You wouldn't happen to have the neurals data as well would you?

That is a good strike for the win, R. Do you have the avge price of the winners?

Rinconpaul, what you have described is laying to a liability, but done in a roundabout way on the Exchange.

However, this can be done on S.P. (much easier and more convenient) where the minimum liability is $30. So if the S.P. price happens to be $30 and the selection is beaten then the profit is approximately $1. But if the selection wins the race then the loss is your nominated liability of $30.

Just divide the S.P. price (not known until a few seconds after the race has started) by your liability bet of $30, or in your case $100. If the selection unfortunately wins the race then the total amount you lose is $100. Even if the S.P. price is $1,000 you only lose $100.

That is why some of us believe laying outsiders on S.P. is less dangerous than doing so on the Exchange where the minimum bet is $5, but the amount lost can be almost mortal.

Reply to Michaelg & SpeedyBen
 

Thanks for the rundown, my bot will only allow a min of $5 stake with SP betting according to the manual, although it allows fractional on the exchange, so if I decide to start SP betting I'll just have to place them directly with Betfair.
As for Livin' in the 80's I'm up to 249 theoretical bets for 1 loss and a nett profit of $559 based on a $100 liability. Average stake is $2.73.
I've got my $70 for the day, with my Lay price bracket system, so I'm pulling the pin.
Got greedy yesterday and let it keep running and got slammed with a double whammy lose on each bot. It's always a tug of war with your emotions, switch from real money to simulation after you reach your target and watch it make a $200 more and kick yourself, or let it run and risk getting "T" boned.
Cheers
RP

Neurals
 

Yes I have
Regards
Addy feebles36@yahoo.com.au

Not a bad day - from the 25 selections there were 25 smiles for a profit of $101.62.