Today's selections:

Rosehill
3/8
4/10

Flemington
1/4

Dombeen
5/15, 17

M'ville
7/12, 14

Kembla
4/10, 11
8/3, 10

Muswellbrook
2/3
3/3, 10
5/11
6/5, 16

Grafton
2/8, 9
3/5
4/4, 10
6/7

Gold Coast
1/2
2/4
4/9

Toowoomba
1/4, 11
5/9

Ascot
6/5, 6, 9

Ballarat
1/7
3/2, 7

MichaelG, advise on SP betting
 

Mate, I'm placing live bets using my Livin' in the 80's system. With my rules I don't place a bet if SP<$10, as I've found that every now and then in historical trials you can get a horse with a 70-80 rating that starts favourite. In other words local knowledge reveals a smokie that they've been handbraking for awhile. This could happen with your system too as they are very silimilar.
When manually placing a SP bet you have control over your liability, you don't have any control over min odds to prevent getting burnt by a smokie. The only way I can control this is to sit at the computer all day and watch for such an occurrence and not place the bet. You obviously place all your bets beforehand in one hit, are you then confident that your system rules will always throw up a longshot and have no fear of it shortening into favouritism?
The other thing I notice is the rules select sometimes 150:1 shots or greater so you're risking $333 to make $2.20. Do you set a max odds, or just work on small bites high turnover?
Cheers
RP

My rules are set in concrete that leaves no scope for opinion/gut feeling, etc, so that I can identify the selections as early as possible and also lay them at that time.

As for the price of the selection, I have no minimum/maximum and just have to put my confidence/hope in the effectiveness of the filters which seems to be doing the trick with a current 98% strike rate.

Thanks for the feedback Michael. Maybe there's a bot out there where you can set min Lay odds on SP. My system has thrown up 59 bets today compared to your 35, so fingers crossed it goes all right.
Cheers
RP

Neurals
 

For anyone interested
I've been laying longshot neurals for the last few days with some outstanding results.
The rules I've used are
1. The two longest priced horses in the neurals page for each race
2. Minimum field size 8
3. 21.0 dollars and longer on Betfair 5 seconds before the start.
The results so far are
235 lays
1 loser @ 23.0
Median price of the lays has been 75.0.
There are lots of small wins of course but betting to a liability of 20% of my bank the bank has increased by about 72% in 4 days. I have reset the liability at the start of each day in line with the bank

Good one SpeedyBen, I'll check it out.
Livin' in the 80's went well today with still a couple at Toowoomba to run, 57 from 57. My trial reached 524 bets 7 losses, $752 nett for $100 liability. Very encouraging, so I'll start day 2 of live betting tomorrow. Just need to find a way to set min odds for SP Lay betting as well as liability. Can do it on the Exchange but I'd feel about as comfortable as a "sardine in a shark tank!"
Cheers
RP

Good luck, Speedy Ben.

I've never really had any success laying outsiders based on the neurals, so again, good luck.

RP, I hope you've had a good day. Not knowing anything about bots I don't know if you can set a minimum price because on Betfair S.P. I'm under the impression it can only be done with a maximum, not a minimum price.

A good day today - from the 34 selections there were 34 smiles for a profit of $222.44.

MG
I wanted to ask about Ballarat R3. My system threw up no. 5 rated 86 L3s X00 which won. I deleted it because it was $9.50, you didn't select it was that because it was a D Scott 100:1?
Cheers
RP

RP, I omitted it because it was credited with 3.0 points in the Form column on the Worksheet.

The original filter was a minimum of 3.5 points but I later noticed that there were quite a few winners in the fancied end of the market with 3.0 points, so I altered the filter to a minimum of 3.0...thankfully.

Betbotpro will do that for you Paul, I use it everyday for laying outsiders at SP and it works well. You'll find it here http://www.betbotpro.com/

Thanks Macs,
I've got Betbotpro and Betsender. Never been able to get Betbotpro to work unless I disable Norton Anti Virus, which I'm not game to do. I've emailed support about 4 times and they keep saying they're looking into it. Have you been getting emails from them in the last two days asking whether you're having problems with the software?
Cheers
RP

MichaelG Neural system
 

MG, just going over your calcs and I can't get it to balance. Lets say your bank is $500. 20% of bank = $100 liability. Median price of lays is $75, therefore stake for $100 liability is $1.33 less 6.5% = $1.25 nett. multiply by no. of winning bets 234 = $292.50 less one loss $100 = Nett profit $192.50. That's great, but you said your bank increased by 70% which is $350! Sure its not half that 38.5% or have I missed something. Still a good result though!
Cheers
RP

Just worked it out MG
 

Sorry mate, I didn't factor in you increasing liability by daily profit which really boosts profits after only 4 days, excellent. Great staking method.
RP

Hi, RP. I think you're referring not to me but to SpeedyBen. Unlike me, his selections are based on the neurals and he also employs a staking plan relative to the size of his bank. My bets are a constant $333.

Today's selections are:

Wyong
4/6, 13, 18. (No.6 is the fave in the Daily Telegraph, and ridden by G.Ryan)
5/11
6/6

Bendigo
4/10

Dubbo
1/3, 13, 14
2/19
3/6, 11
7/11

Yarra Valley
4/1, 10
6/13

Kangaroo Island/Kingsgate
7/4

Devenport
1/14, 16
3/6, 8

With a bot you could increase your stakes per successful bet rather than just per day. I remember even Maria would have preferred to do that. :)

Which website do you beleive?
 

MG, thought I'd point out that Wyong 6/6 has form of cDw, thats according to Skyform but doesn't appear at Tatts. I already went through my selections and found quite a few discrepancies between the two sites. I checked the rest of yours, there was only one scratching Yarra 4/1
Cheers and good luck
RP

Thanks, RP.

I get the info from Tatts. Due to time constraints I don't double-check it from any other source.

Tatts and Betfair still shows Yarra 4/1 as a starter.

It's good that the interest generated has affected some forumites to look at and devise their methods at laying outsiders that currently are successful. It has encouraged me to look at a Lay Outsiders Method based on the neurals, and I expect to list the rules and today's selections in a new thread.

No emails from them at all RP and it's been working fine.

Rincdonpaul
You can go into norton and get them to allow Betbotpro. Then you can operate norton as normal. Once you do this BBP works properly

Thanks Beton
 

I'll try that. Mate I might be going over old ground here but is there any money to be made Laying the field say > $25 just before the close, I mean every race?
Cheers
RP

Six months ago I was laying <$30. Then I noticed a decline. I had a check on some Betfair results which showed it as marginal. I have since done a run on back data. which showed laying the fav only was no good, laying the top 2 or the top 3 was no good and laying those <$20 was no good. Or at least not worth the effort. Laying the field to a set liability was ok but erratic lost 2 months in a row. Currently trying to back some and lay the rest.

Beton, I've had success Laying The Field for different liabilities, here, U.K and U.S but stopped because to do so I'd have to be at my computer. I sometimes Lay The Field here based solely on the Daily Telegraph Market, but not at the moment because my interest is with the Don Scott Outsiders method.

I used to Lay The Field using the liabilities of $30 to $34, or a multiple of them. I was at one time laying for the liabilities of $300 to $340 and showed a profit in the majority of races, and it wasn't uncommon to have an all-green field.

If Laying The Field interests you it might be worthwhile to experiment.


There are two further selections for today's D.S. Outsiders method (my form guide doesn't have Geraldton). The selections are:

Geraldton
3/6, 16.

Yep. I could do that with my GHB Lite bot but haven't bothered. It moves the bet up and down in line with the bank which I don't believe in. Long before I heard of Maria I have always operated what I think she calls the ratchet plan, which is to bet a fixed % of the highest point that the bank has reached and never reduce the bet.

That's the way I work it. See my post above. The % increase is on the original bank. If I lose one now it will be 20% of the current bank and thus more than 20% of the original. As I said it is like watching a share on the market. Lots of little ups and occasional corrections. It is like a share on speed though with about 3 months share trading crammed into a day or two.

A good day - from the 23 selections there were 23 smiles for a profit of $122.00.

20% is a very high percentage. Maybe you start to lower it for safety reasons.

25% stake is a material recovery staking level imho. Anything close to this and I have reset to scratch, with good results.

Cheers LG

Today's selections:

Grafton
2/8, 12
4/11

Benalla
4/14
7/15

macs, quick question on BBP, I've tried using it but found it chewing away at my internet usage in rapid pace and had to basically give up using it after 2-3 days. Have you found the same problem?

Evaj,
Still haven't used it due to the problems with internet security it causes. They emailed the following message a couple of days ago:

[font="Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"]When you recently visited our website did youcome across any issues or problems at all?

Did you have trouble taking the trial of any software?

Did you have trouble ordering the software? [/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"]Well the answer is yes to all of the above! I wouldn't recommend them at all.[/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"]Cheers[/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"]RP[/font]

On the bot that I use it has an option to adjust the "market refresh rate". The guy suggests that the lowest this should be in real time mode is 1000ms (milli-seconds I think). In simulation mode I run it at 5000ms.

There are also a number of other settings that uses milli-seconds to retrieve info. These are pre-set and are as follows "Get market info at start interval" 12500ms and "Get passed markets info interval" 60000ms.

Your settings might have one or all of those settings way too low and therefore why it may be playing up.

Having said all that then Betfair would have pinged you for excess data usage or something like that. Maybe your computer is the problem. :confused:

I haven't noticed Eva. I've got a 100GB allowance so the only time I take any notice is when some inconsiderate, pubescent individual (prat) finds it funny to download copious amounts of data and bring it to a standstill.

RP, have you bought the software or using their trial?

Look I couldn't get the trial to work so silly me bought it thinking that would cure things but it didn't.
Thanks
RP

Tip for anyone wanting to try Betsender bot
 

I've been using Betsender which I've had no issues with except you can't get any support, they never reply. But a tip for you while trialling it, if you can keep your computer running and the bot open indefinetly the trial period never ends! It's only when I had a power blackout that I had to pay.
Cheers
RP

There has to be a fairly simple solution, I use Norton 360 and don't have any dramas with it at all.

Today's four selections were beaten for a profit of $12.89.

I backed both systems of yours, well done.
RP

RP, glad you made some money. Let's hope it continues.

Today's selections:

Taree
3/1, 2, 4
4/8
7/9

Wagga
1/5
2/8, 11
3/9, 10, 11

Kyneton
4/2, 3
8/9