It looks like Opportunity could be an early scratching in the Sires Produce.

Yeah well done Sportz, too good. Too consistent. Too strong. (unlike, say, Cool Trent).

Sounds interesting BTW, your stable idea.

ratings methods
 

To follow Zorros lead I will explain my ratings method,

1. select base run from tas tote site based on latest run that comes close to current race conditions.
2 subtract weight to be carried over bottom weight.
3 Thats it.

I used this method for the first half to two thirds of the comp with abject failure. Then I started giving bonuses for prepost ranking. Suddenly after three weeks I have moved from near the bottom to near the top. I thinkthere is two lessons I can learn from that. Firstly I cantrate horses for crap. secondly why should I bother when the "herd" can do it for me and be far more accurate in the long term. Hence , this weekends races for the comp will be the last I rate. form now on I will look at the first five in the pre post, cull them down to 2 or 3 and then gain the best prices and use some cautious staking and hope for the best.

SATURDAY
RAND R5-2.35 AJC SIRES PRODUCE STAKES 1400 M ($422460) 2YO SW
1 STRATUM
8 FASHIONS AFIELD
9 MNEMOSYNE
10 OPPORTUNITY
4 POWER OF DESTINY

2 DOMESDAY
3 THE RHINE

RAND R6-3.15 AJC AUSTRALIAN DERBY 2400 M ($1937860) 3YO SW
4 XCELLENT
2 EREMEIN
5 STELLA GRANDE
1 OUTBACK PRINCE
8 KING JOHNY

3 JYMCAREW
12 HIGH CEE

MONDAY TO BE POSTED OVER THE WEEKEND

RANDWICK RACE 5

1 STRATUM
8 FASHIONS AFIELD
9 MNEROSYNE
2 DOMESDAY
10 OPPORTUNITY

RACE 6
4 XCELLENT
2 EREMEIN
3 JYMCAREW
5 STELLA GRANDE
1 OUTBACK PRINCE

MONDAY RANDWICK RACE 6
14 AL MAHAR
15 DANNI MARTINE
3 TOULOUSE LAUTREC
2 COURTS IN SESSION
1 DESERT WAR

that sounds awesome!

randwick r5
1- Stratum
8- Fashions Afield
2- The Rhine
9- Mnemosyne
3- The rine

4- Power of destiny


randwick r6
4-Xcellent
2-Eremein
1-Outback Prince
5- Stella Grande
11-Railings

3-Jymcarew

good luck all

Ratings Challenge
 

Randwick Race 5
9. Mnemosyne
1. Stratum
2. Domesday
8. Fashions Afield
7. El De Lago
12. Flora Danica (1st Res.)
5. Pendragon (2nd Res.)

Randwick Race 6
2. Eremein
1. Outback Prince
5. Stella Grande
12. High Cee
4. Xcellent
3. Jymcarew (1st Res.)
10. Sly Dog (2nd Res.)

Thanks,
QFB

SR5
1 5211-Stratum 3.50
9 x224-Mnemosyne 3.90
8 1112-Fashions Afield 5.00
4 1942-Power Of Destiny 6.20
2 1125-Domesday 7.50

SR6
5 11x1-Xcellent 3.40
2 2221-Eremein 4.10
4 x321-Stella Grande 4.10
8 3x53-King Johny 6.20
1 1634-Outback Prince 9.30

Inglis - Sires's Produce Stks.

1 Stratum
8 Fashions Afield
9 Mnemosyne
2 Domesday
4 Power Of Destiny

3 The Rhine
11 Another Time

David Jones - A.J.C Aust Derby.

2 Eremein
4 Xcellent
1 Outback Prince
8 King Johny
5 Stella Grande

3 Jymcarew
7 Svenska

Sorry Sportz I got the horse numbers wrong on race 6

RAND R5
1 STRATUM (69.0) $2.40
9 MNEMOSYNE (67.0) $4.20
8 FASHIONS AFIELD (65.5) $5.95
2 DOMESDAY (64.0) $8.50
4 POWER OF DESTINY (57.5) $47.60
--------------------
3 THE RHINE (56.5) $59.50

RAND R6
4 XCELLENT (74.0) $2.5
2 EREMEIN (72.5) $3.9
1 OUTBACK PRINCE (69.5) $7.9
5 STELLA GRANDE (66.5) $21.1
8 KING JOHNY (66.0) $25.3
--------------------
3 JYMCAREW (65.5) $28.1

Race 5

1 stratum
9 mnemosyne
8 fashions afeid
4 power of destiny
2 domesday

5 pendragon

race 6

2 eremein
1 outback prince
4 xcellant
5 stella grande
8 king johny

3 jymcarew

Race 5:
Stratum
Fashions Afield
Mnemosyne
Domesday
Another Time
Power of Destiny

Race 6:
Eremein
Xcellent
Stella Grande
Jymcarew
Outback Prince
Western Beau

When this is all over Sportz, it may pay for you to go back and see the difference between backing your top selection straight out and only when the price is over your estimate. It could be an interesting exercise, as you lead the comp at this point. I realise you changed your actual pricing method along the way, but it could still surprise you.

OK here's mine, for the second to last time. Until the next comp of course!

I've put in 6, just in case of a LSCR.

As can be seen in Race 6 I have 3 equal fourths, we'll take them as they are on the table there, which is to say, racebook order.

Good luck all.

RAN 5 2.35
seln price
1 $3.6 STRATUM
8 $5.2 FASHIONS AFIELD
2 $10.7 DOMESDAY
9 $14.9 MNEMOSYNE-NZ
7 $19.8 EL DE LAGO
11 $20.9 ANOTHER TIME


RAN 6 3.15
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $4.1 EREMEIN
1 1.0 $5.8 OUTBACK PRINCE
4 1.0 $5.8 XCELLENT-NZ
3 3.0 $17.8 JYMCAREW
5 3.0 $17.8 STELLA GRANDE
8 3.0 $17.8 KING JOHNY-NZ

Race 5

1.Stratum $1.60
8.Fashions Afield $3.50
2.Domesday $17.00
9.Mnemosyne $41.00
3.The Rhine $251.00

Then Power of Destiny, Another Time

Race 6

4.Xcellent $1.40
2.Eremein $6.00
5.Stella Grande $21.00
1.Outback Prince $61.00
6.Western Beau $101.00

Then Jymcarew, King Johny, Sly Dog

Still having trouble finding a way to compress the prices to make them realistic.

The Mug, do we assume it's *2.Domesday 3rd* and *3.The Rhine 5th*?

Gday all

here are mine

5 RANDWICK
Inglis Sires's Produce Stks (Gr 1)
2yo Group I
8 Fashions Afield (11)
1 Stratum (6)
3 The Rhine (12)
6 Johnny (2)
2 Domesday (8)

6 RANDWICK
David Jones A.J.C Aust Derby (Gr 1)
3yo Group I
4 Xcellent (NZ) (10)
2 Eremein (3)
5 Stella Grande (4)
3 Jymcarew (11)
11 Railings (9)

RANDWICK 5
1 Stratum $ 2.25
9 Mnemosyne $ 3.50
8 Fashions Afield $ 4.75
2 Domesday $ 11.00
11Another Time $ 15.00


RANDWICK 6
3 JYMCAREW $ 2.75
4 XCELLENT $ 3.00
10 Sly Dog $ 16.25 2 EREMEIN $ 3.75
1 OUTBACK PRINCE $ 9.00

Heavyweight, I assume you are adding up the rated points and then dividing each horse's points by the total to get a percentage and then a price.

Try this:

Instead of for example having one horse at 100 and the next at 98 and so on, start from the bottom, the horse with the least points.

Now calculate the difference between scores rather than the scores.

Example:

1.Stratum 100
8.Fashions Afield 98
2.Domesday 95
9.Mnemosyne 94
3.The Rhine 88

Do this:

1.Stratum 12
8.Fashions Afield 10
2.Domesday 7
9.Mnemosyne 6
3.The Rhine 1

So your prices will be compressed better.

This would be the result

1.Stratum $3.00
8.Fashions Afield $3.60
2.Domesday $5.14
9.Mnemosyne $6.00
3.The Rhine $36.00

I've only used hypothetical figures, and not the whole field, but you get the general idea.

If your figures are stil a little off, you can add a small bonus to the top scores, like top ranked x 1.5, 2nd top ranked X 1.4 etc. Play around with it until you get something that resembles a TAB market.

Ratings Challenge
 

Randwick Race 6 Doncaster Hcp
10. Sky Cuddle
14. Al Maher
8. Ike's Dream
16. Utzon
11. Winning Belle
15. Danni Martine (1st Res.)
2. Court's In Session (2nd Res.)

Thanks,
QFB

Doncaster Hcp

1 desert war
11 winning belle
14 al maher
2 courts in session
15 danni martine

8 ikes dream

Doncaster
14 3x21-Al Maher 3.00
8 1x31-Ike's Dream 5.00
2 1221-Court's In Session 5.70
10 x643-Sky Cuddle 10.70
15 4113-Danni Martine 10.70

Scores from the two races on Saturday:

xpt driver 45 60
La Mer 50 50
Jimmy 50 50
The mug 45 55
zorro 47.5 50
Dr Ron 47.5 50
Chrome Prince 45 50
Sportz 47.5 45
QuickFunBet 40 50
Duritz 45 45
Heavyweight 45 45
ubetido 50 40
kiwi 47.5 25

Doncaster:

8 IKE'S DREAM (76.5) $4.8
2 COURT'S IN SESSION (76.0) $5.5
11 WINNING BELLE (76.0) $5.5
1 DESERT WAR (73.5) $10.7
14 AL MAHER (72.5) $13.4
------------------------
15 DANNI MARTINE (72.0) $15.0

Doncaster Hcp
 

2- Courts in Session 4.70
14- Al maher 5.20
11- Winning Belle 8.20
1- Desert War 9.40
4- Modem 11.80

Good luck all..

Doncaster Handicap
Winning Belle
Court's In Session
Al Maher
Desert War
Ike's Dream
Danni Martine

OK here's my 80% market for the Doncaster. Have chopped and changed on this race, thought about it heaps, and have ended up with Desert War rated very highly, and being the horse I will back, because of these reasons:

1 - I think he might be a wet tracker... That win in the Epsom last spring prior to FLOPPING (with my money on him) in the Caul Cup was on an affected track, slow by my readings, and he hasn't hit one since. That was the wettest track he has raced on. (His other slow track run was a win two, but in a maiden at Gosford). He rated through the ROOF winning that day At Randwick over the same track, distance and state of the track.

2 - Last run looked a bit one paced (which wet trackers ARE), and possibly short of a run, which sets him up to peak today.

3 - Doncaster is a test of strength. He will get the PERFECT run, in a race which notoriously is difficult to lead all the way in. (I think, that's just on memory, not research).

4 - His home track. He performed so badly in Melb, maybe he hates travel.

5 - Trainer a genius.

Winning Belle is going to fly. No doubt about that. Huge run LS, will be suited coming back to the mile because it's such a tough race this one, the backup will just mean she is rock hard, will get nice run.

Courts in Session is very well placed, a very good racehorse who rates really well and has done so four runs in a row. Also get a very nice run.

This is a really interesting race. Am looking forward to it.

Good luck all!



RAN 6 3.05
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $3.8 DESERT WAR
11 1.6 $7.0 WINNING BELLE
2 2.0 $8.6 COURTS IN SESSIO
8 2.6 $12.3 IKES DREAM
14 2.9 $15.5 AL MAHER

Emergency selections in case of another biblical deluge:
4 3.3 $20.5 MODEM
7 4.3 $48.2 PATEZZA
17 4.5 $56.3 TUI SONG-NZ

Chrome Prince,
Thanks for your assistance. Still working on it. My problem seems to lie not so much with my pricing as with my cavalier approach to allocating bonuses and penalties. A hundred steps forward, 99 back again...

Sportz,
This has been a great competition. Thankz.

Sydney Race 6:

14. Al Maher $2.40
15. Danni Martine $6.50
2. Court's In Session $9.00
3. Toulouse Lautrec $17.00
17. Tui Song $21.00

Then Ike's Dream $26, Desert War $26, Winning Belle $31

Cheers all,

H.

Sydney Race 6

Winning Belle
Al Maher
Ike's Dream
Desert War
Court's In Session

Toulouse Lautrec
Danni Martine

Doncaster Hcp.

2 Court's In Session
11 Winning Belle
8 Ike's Dream
14 Al Maher
1 Desert War

15 Danni Martine
4 Modem

Doncaster Hcp. Handicap


14 Al Maher $3.50

2 Court's In Session $4.25

8 Ike's Dream $9

3 Toulouse Lautrec $13.50

4 Modem $15.00

Gday All

I see the Docaster this way... good luck with whatever you back

RACE 6 Doncaster Handicap 3yo+ Group 1
8 Ike's Dream
2 Court's In Session
14 Al Maher
4 Modem
11 Winning Belle

Well, we saved our worst for last. Not one of us had Patezza in our top 5. For what it's worth, here were our scores today:

zorro 15
Heavyweight 15
xpt driver 12.5
La Mer 12.5
Jimmy 12.5
Sportz 12.5
ubetido 12.5
kiwi 12.5
The mug 10
Dr Ron 10
Duritz 10
Chrome Prince 7.5
QuickFunBet 7.5

So, nobody improved on their scores from Saturday which means the final scoreboard for the comp looks like this:

Sportz 1065
zorro 995
La Mer 962.5
Jimmy 930
Dr Ron 927.5
QuickFunBet 920
Top Rank 860
Duritz 835
xpt driver 832.5
Heavyweight 817.5
ubetido 790
Chrome Prince 695
The mug 692.5
Filante 510
kiwi 475

Nicely done Sportz, congrats ;)

Yes well tallied sportz.

Well done Sportz

Thanks. It's been a very interesting challenge. Good fun. :)

Yes very well done Sportz, you were very consistent and deserved to win.

This has been a really fun comp, thanks for running it, if anyone wants to do another one I'll be in!!!

I don't have the patience or expertise to run one, however I'll participate.

Thanks again.

so, any word about this stable comp, Sportz?