English Premier League, French, German, Italian & Spanish.

G01 Stoke v Middlesbrough 10 games 9 under 3.5 one game over 3.5
G02 Hull v Leicester 10 games 9 under 3.5 one game over 3.5
G03 Everton v Tottenham 10 games 9 under 3.5 one game over 3.5
G04 Caen v Loriet 12 games 12 under 3.5
G05 Wolfsburg v Augsburg 10 games 10 under 3.5
G06 Lazio v Atalanta 23 games 23 under 3.5
G07 Inter v Chievo 10 games 9 under 3.5 one over 3.5
G08 Empoli v Sampdoria 16 games 16 under 3.5
G09 Genoa v Cagliari 10 games 10 under 3.5
G10 Osasuna v Malaga 10 games 9 under 3.5 one over 3.5
G11 Gijon v A Bilbao 10 games 9 under 3.5 one over 3.5

Current market, A-League

Melbourne City FC $5
Sydney FC $5.50
Perth Glory $7
Brisbane Roar $8
Melbourne Victory $8
Western Sydney Wanderers $9
Adelaide United $12
Wellington Phoenix $19
Central Coast Mariners $41
Newcastle Jets $41

Latest betting A-League winner

Sydney FC $2.10
Melbourne Victory $3.60
Melbourne City FC $12
Brisbane Roar $13
Perth Glory $17
Western Sydney Wanderers $26

66/1 or better for the rest

Current odds - World Cup - Main Market

Germany 5.50
Brazil 8.00
Spain 10.00
Argentina 11.00
France 12.00
Belgium 21.00
Italy 21.00
England 26.00
Portugal 31.00
Colombia 34.00
Chile 41.00
Russia 41.00
Uruguay 51.00
Netherlands 51.00
Mexico 81.00
Croatia 101.00
Switzerland 101.00
USA 126.00
Poland 201.00
Serbia 201.00
Ukraine 201.00
Japan 201.00
Denmark 201.00
Australia 701.00

Early market, A-League

Sydney FC $4
Melbourne Victory $5.50
Melbourne City FC $7.50
Perth Glory $9.50
Brisbane Roar $10
Western Sydney Wanderers $10
Adelaide United $13
Wellington Phoenix $26
Newcastle Jets $26
Central Coast Mariners $34

English Premier League Predictions for Week 4
 

Hi to all,

As I promised my rugby friends, I located my soccer predictions program and updated it. I coded and ran last season’s 380 EPL matches to create the EPL starting ratings for this season. I give promoted teams the average ratings of the relegated teams, to start the new season. I just finished and now have predictions for EPL week 4.

As I do for rugby, for each team, I calculate an offensive rating, a defensive rating and the team’s constancy. I also calculate the home advantage in points. For soccer, I calculate three probabilities: for a home win, draw and away win (home loss). By the end of the season, my average probabilities are within 1% of the actual fraction of home wins, draws and away wins. I calculate the fair decimal odds for all three possibilities. As with rugby, whenever bookmaker decimal odds are higher than my fair odds, you have an edge. I added a page to explain my soccer predictions. In the future, I will post new predictions a day or two after the last game is played. These are late since I just finished.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

good one Ray

don't normally dabble much in epl of late, might try more, cheers ray

EPL Week 5
 

For about the first four weeks, ratings bounce around quite a bit. That’s due to the newly promoted teams, new players, new coaches and new strategies, plus some unusual early-season scores and upsets. By the end of week four, most ratings have settled.

An interesting case was that of West Ham versus Huddersfield in week four. West Ham had lost all of its first three matches while newly-promoted Huddersfield had been surprisingly unbeaten (two wins and a draw). Huddersfield was underdog with a high price, despite the odd start for both teams. Trading had to be suspended by TAB New Zealand on Huddersfield. When West Ham won 2-0 in week four, both teams’ ratings moved to a more centrist position.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 6
 

I wish the EPL teams would tell us when all the teams except Man U and Man City want to take the week off and play for draws. My favorites won four of the five non-drawn matches. On the other hand, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Brom were heavy favorites but they settled for three 0-0 draws. There were also two 1-1 draws. Five draws is twice as many as usual. Excluding the two Manchester matches, only 11 goals were scored in eight matches. Let’s hope they all come to play in Week 6, so trying to predict winners and looking at odds is worth it. Meanwhile, Man U and Man City are tied at the top in every way possible.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

This is the first I've seen of these predictions and they look impressive. though I'm not exactly sure how to "read"them.

Answer to query
 

There is a page that follows my predictions that tells you how to read the predictions. As to using them, I give the fair decimal odds for a home win, draw and away win. If a bookmaker offers a higher payoff than I suggest is the fair (break-even) value, you could take that bet. I suggest staying away from decimal odds above 5, as you don't win that often (less than 20% of the time).

I also estimate goal difference and total goals. Goals scored are so variable, it's hard to make money on goals betting though. There are many options in soccer, like draw-no-bet but those are more sophisticated and can be evaluated using my odds.

Ray

Hi Ray,

Just fount the page you mention, I should have scrolled down further.

Thanks, I appreciate you taking the time for the above explanation.

Mike.

EPL Week 7
 

Good, there were five draws in Week 5 and only one on week 6. That averages out about right. As we get closer to week 10, all the ratings due to odd early runs by weak teams and weak showings by strong teams are correcting, so that out matches are becoming more predictive. Bet conservatively for now.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray Stefani

EPL week 8
 

We had a good week 7, in that six of my seven favourites won matches that were not drawn.

Speaking of draws, there is a simple way to avoid losing money when your team draws, although you will earn less when your team wins. Here is how it works. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 4.0. If you put exactly ¼ of your bet on a draw and put the other ¾ of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back ¼ of your bet times four, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other ¾ of your bet. You only win ¾ of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 3.0. If you put exactly 1/3 of your bet on a draw and put the other 2/3 of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back 1/3 of your bet times three, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other 2/3 of your bet. You only win 2/3 of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Of course, you lose your whole bet when the other team wins, but that was going to happen anyway.

Good luck with week 8.

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray 👍

EPL Week 9
 

Last week was the perfect time to give you the trick to avoid losing money when your team draws. There were 5 draws in 10 matches. I found five value (favourable) bets last week. One was to bet on Watford with a payoff of 4.9, which paid handsomely. The other four values bets were for Brighton, Burnley, Man U, and Newcastle, all of whom drew. So, your five bets would have resulted in breaking even on four and winning on one.

On the pages after my predictions and the team ratings, you will now find an explanation of what the page of predictions means, about how my rating system works and the trick for breaking even when your team draws (as I wrote last week).

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 10
 

Every now and then the seemingly impossible happens. When I entered the 2-1 score by which Huddersfield had defeated Man U, I thought I saw smoke coming out of the computer. It recovered and finished the job, writing “Are you kidding me?”.

My favourite has won just 69% of the 68 non-drawn matches. I estimate that using my trick for breaking even on a draw, you would have a 10% profit on turnover for the last 4 weeks.

Good luck with week 10.

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 11
 

The ratings have settled down nicely, as have profits. Last week, my favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that weren’t drawn, bringing my season accuracy to 70% for my favourites winning non-drawn matches. For the last five weeks, profit on turnover has been 13%, using the betting scheme I gave you which guarantees breaking even for a match that is drawn. The details are at the end of my predictions pages.

Good luck with week 11.

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray. Nice work.

Thanks Ray, laid the unders, and those short favs that were close to your prices (to break even) for a nice 24% profit.

EPL Week 12
 

I am glad to hear some clever success stories in a week when Bournemouth beat Newcastle at Newcastle and Burnley beat Southampton at Southampton. Let’s look forward to week 12, to be played over 18-20 November. Good luck to all!

Ray Stefani

Not so good this week.

Sorry about the bad week
 

With one match unplayed for week 9, my favourites won 8 of the 9 matches that were not tied. What kinds of bets were you making? I am sorry that my predictions didn't work out for you.

Oops
 

Make that 7 of the 8 matches that were not tied.

Hi Ray, go for value from your prices.

Bourne v Hudd, B were top pick but under as was the draw. Loss.
******** V Tott, T top pick, laid A & draw. Loss.
Bright V Stoke, B top pick, draw was under, laid draw. Loss.
Burn v Swan, B top pick and overs, laid S & draw. Win.
Cryst v Ever, C top pick slightly under, laid and made draw worst way. Loss.
Leic v Man C, prices were almost exact to BF. No bet.
Liver v South, L top pick but unders, also laid S. Loss.
Man U v Newc, Again prices almost exact to BF. No bet.
Watf, W Ham, Wat top pick and value, laid draw & WH. Win
W Brom v Che, C top pick but under, also laid draw. Loss

6 losses & 2 wins for me.
Will get it back next week. ;)

EPL Lucky Week 13
 

Week 12 went well. My favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that were not drawn. Good luck with "lucky" week 13.

Better luck week 13
 

\
I look at betting a bit differently. First I look for value in the favourite, that is, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the favourite. If not, I look for value in the underdog, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the underdog. Otherwise, there would be no bet. If there is a small value bet, there would still be no bet, using 1/2 Kelly. The value bet can be split between the team and a draw to break even on draw.

Last week I only found 4 value bets. There was value in supporting Burnley and Watford, both of which cashed. There was value supporting Tottenham, but that was a loss. There was value supporting Brighton. If the bet was split on win and draw, that bet broke even. If the bet was only on a win, that bet was a loss. Using 1/2 Kelly to allocate the total bet, I calculated a profit either betting only to win or betting to win with a smaller bet to draw.

I am rooting for your comeback in week lucky 13!

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 14, more like week 13.2
 

I hadn't noticed that week 14 starts one day after week 13 ended. I hustled these predictions after yesterday's match. I am tired just thinking about playing games so close together, which probably explains why there were four draws where favourites were happy to take one point on a draw and rest for midweek matches.

Ray Stefani

You've lost me Ray. I had a good week and then a bad week and last week I stayed out. Based on your prices I found 17 "value" bets of which only 2 won. Value in Burnley? yes, but they lost. Slight value in Watford for a win. Value in Tottenham?? your price 1.49, best I saw was 1.30. Value in Brighton?, yes but they lost, not a draw.
Not having a go, you are generous and brave putting up your markets, but saying you 'cashed', or broke even on clearly losing bets is a bit disingenuous."

We are all friends here in the Ozmium forums. We exchange information and suggestions about sports in general and betting in particular in a friendly manner. I am happy to volunteer my time to give predictions and suggest betting techniques as I have been doing for 45 years in general and for more than 10 years with Ozmium. If you or any one has a question, I am most happy to answer. However, an accusation like “disingenuous” has no place here and I will not tolerate insult, if my predictions are to continue in soccer.

I am happy to explain how my betting methods created a profit for EPL week 12. I am attaching the Kelly betting methods which I have attached to my Super Rugby predictions each week. The first section explains the Kelly method. The second section gives an example for Super Rugby while the third section contains a table for EPL week 12. First, I suggest comparing my fair odds with a bookmaker. I use TAB New Zealand for internet access. Obviously, if anyone has different bookie odds, betting would be different. First look for a game where the bookmaker odds for either team to win is more than mine. If not, there is no bet. As in the first section attached, do not bet if the bookie odds to win is less than 1.5 or more than 4.3. Next use the first section to apply the Kelly method which is derived to provide maximum exponential return on bankroll. I use ½ Kelly to keep the sum reasonable for a weekly league betting. I suggest not betting if the fraction of bankroll is less than 1.5%. If there would be more than 10% of bankroll for one game, I suggest limiting to 10%. I suggest keeping the weekly bet at no more than 25% of bankroll.

I then provide a table for EPL week 12, using ½ Kelly against TAB New Zealand. There was a value bet of 15 total supporting Tottenham which was lost. There was a total bet of 51 supporting Brighton, which was returned due to a draw. The bets supporting Burley for 73 and Watford for 85 both won with 50 and 59 respectively being multiplied by 1.9 and 2.1, respectively for a return of 95 and 124 respectively. The total bet was 224 and the total won was 270, for a 20% profit.

I wish good luck to all of you.

Ray Stefani

Woah Ray settle down. There was no insult, I also said you were brave and generous, and meant it, but you chose not to mention that.

I too have been making a living from gambling/ trading for a long time, so understand betting markets.

The only results I questioned were Burnley & Brighton, which you have repeated as wins in your reply.

"There was a total bet of 51 supporting Brighton, which was returned due to a draw. The bets supporting Burley for 73 and Watford for 85 both won" ???

Watford agreed paid way overs, but Burnley...lost 0-1 to Arsenal, and Brighton also lost 0-1 to Man Utd.
You had Burnley top pick, you priced them at 2.57 fav, and fair enough I understand how you can break even, or even profit if they draw, but they didn't, they lost.

That was all, nothing more, nothing less.

I gave you kudos for great results a few weeks before and am in no way criticising you for an ordinary week, simply pointing out claimed wins that were just not correct.

I think we also may have got our weeks mixed up.

You do have your weeks mixed up
 

You do have your weeks mixed up, as you note in a follow-up post. You had mentioned having a good week 11 (4-5 November) but a bad week 12 (18-20 November). You then listed your specific bets for week 12 and that you had 6 losses and 2 wins. I then gave a short summary of my take on week 12. You came back with the claim of "disingenuous". I gave you my specific betting table for week 12 when Burnley beat Swansea 2-0 (winning bet), Brighton drew with Stoke 2-2 (even bet) and Watford beat West Ham 2-0 (winning bet).

In you newest commentary, you mention week 13 (24-26 November) games about which you had said you sat out and about which I had made no comments. The scores for Burnley losing 0-1 to Arsenal and Brighton losing 0-1 to Man U are indeed for week 13. To go further, as I included in the attachment to my last response, I do not suggest a value bet for bookie odds greater than 4.30, so Burnley (5.30) and Brighton (16.00) were not value bets and therefore not loosing bets.

Let's move on.

Ray Stefani

It's EPL week 15 aleady
 

Boy does time fly by: week 15 predictions are here.! It seems like it was just a few days ago when we were looking at the week 13 results and posting week 14 predictions. Actually, it was just a few days ago.

I am adding some more methodology for assigning bets. I had attached a section which explains what the predictions mean and a section explaining how to break even on a draw. I am adding a section about deciding which values bets to accept and deciding how to assign relative amounts to the various value bets using the Kelly method. Using those methods, week 14 came out quite well. There were five value bets. Bets supporting Burnley, Leicester and Everton were winners while bets supporting Brighton and West Brom broke even due to draws.

Good luck with week 15!

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray,
All your input has been very helpful for me
Big thanks for your time & effort

Thanks
 

I greatly appreciate your thoughtfulness.

Good luck!

EPL Week Sweet 16
 

The betting trick which has you breaking even on a draw is really growing on me. For week 15, my favourites won all 7 matches that were not drawn. On one hand, the three drawn matches were value bets for Bournemouth, Watford and West Brom which normally would have been losses. On the other hand, you would have gotten your bet returned using the trick I gave you. There was one other value bet which was a winner thanks to Man U. All 9 values bets from weeks 13 And 14 resulted in either draws (breaking even) or wins.

I have attached all of my betting suggested methods to the predictions.

Good luck with week 16,

Ray Stefani

EPL week (round) 17, 12-13 December
 

I should really write about “round 17” instead of “week 17”, because the EPL will be playing on 12-13 December (in the UK) and then play again this coming weekend after finishing their games on Sunday. There is no rest for soccer players or my computer.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 18
 

In just over a week, 30 games will have been played and predicted. Here is the next installment of 10.

Good luck with round 18.

Ray Stefani