Thanks Ray.
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EPL Round 10
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I am a bit late with my EPL picks this week. I was away over the weekend.
So far, the home teams have had a surprisingly poor record: they have won only 38 matches while drawing 18 and losing 34. That’s not much of a home advantage. I can’t put my finger on any explanation. As we move along, I think the home teams will make their ultras (and betting supporters) much happier. Last week was a good example. Bournemouth and Chelsea provided the best value bets whilst playing at home. Both drew, so that using the betting trick I mentioned meant that betting supporters broke even. Of course, that happens when your money stays in your pocket too, so let’s look to more exciting bets to come. Cheers , Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 11
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I would pat my computer on the head if it had one. The computer's favourites won all 7 matches that weren't drawn. Value bets cashed for Brighton and Watford supporters. The other value bet was a break-even bet because Leicester drew.
Here are my predictions for Round 11. I will be away after Round 11 so my next send will be lucky Round 13. Good luck, Ray Stefani |
Doing well Ray, again thanks.
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EPL Round Lucky Round 13
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I have returned just in time to give you my predictions for EPL Lucky Round 13. The matches will be played 24-26 November, to give us time to build up the luck.
Cheers, Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 14
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I just returned from visiting relatives, so I am a bit late with Round 14. In Round 13, a nice value bet cashed for Newcastle supporters.
A lot of EPL soccer is about to be played. We will have 10 matches played over the upcoming weekend, 10 more at the subsequent midweek and another 10 on the then-following weekend. With congested fixtures, there is always the danger of teams saving players (becoming less effective) and/or playing for a draw. We'll soon know. Good luck, Ray Stefani |
Thanks for your predictions Ray. Cheers
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EPL Round 15
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There were no surprises in Round 14, as we started 30 matches in just over one week. Seven of my favourites won the 9 games that weren't drawn. Brighton supporters cashed a value bet. We haven't seen many draws lately either, which is great. Let's see how mid-week Round 15 plays out.
Good luck, Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 16
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If it seems like I just sent you predictions, that because I did. Here come another 10 matches. The number of draws went up to 3, which seems to happen with congested fixtures. My favourite did win 6 of the 7 matches that weren't drawn.
Good luck this weekend! Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 17
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Cheers to all as you get ready fro Christmas. The onslaught of holiday soccer matches continues. Happily, the fraction of draws is just what it should be as well as the fractions of home wins and away wins. It may be that we don't have to be as defensive about draws as we had to be last season.
I thought I was looking at match results for a few years ago when I found that Chelsea had beaten Man City 2-0, right after I had seen a commentator on CNN World News give a convincing argument of why Man City would win 2-0. Apparently, Chelsea didn't watch the broadcast. Good luck with Round 17, to be followed with more rounds soon. . Ray Stefani |
Manchester City warm favourites since the start of the season
Only danger Liverpool according to bookies Can Liverpool do it Ray? What do you think. Spurs any chance? |
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Let's see how the contenders stand right now. We are almost through the first round robin which will be finished with round 19. We just finished round 17. Here are the goal differences and league points. 1. Man City (+38, 44 league points) 2. Liverpool (+30, 45 league points) 3. Chelsea (+21, 37 league points) 4. Tottenham (+15, 39 league points) 5. Arsenal (+14, 34 league points) That is the same order as for my ratings. So, City is about 1/2 goal better than Liverpool (divide by 17) and 1 or more goals better then the other three. There is some separation between City and Liverpool with the other three and a huge separation after Arsenal. It gets interesting when we look at the schedule among the five contenders in the second half of the season when each plays the other four. Get this: City is home all four times, Liverpool is home three times and the other three are each home only once. So, City and Liverpool got some separation in the first half of the season among the five even though City had to play the other four away all four times and Liverpool played away in three of four matches. The bottom three were each home three times. With that really favourable home schedule, City and Liverpool ought to widen their gap. I don’t think that Tottenham (Chelsea or Arsenal) are likely to be tops. Liverpool is only 1/2 goal behind City but up one league point. I like City to win but Liverpool has a solid chance to go top. There can always be unexpected injuries and strategy changes. Klopp could pull it off; but, as I said, I like City. |
EPL Round 18 (with 19, 20 and 21 coming soon)
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Round 17 was something of an early Christmas present. My favourites won 9 of the 10 matches, with no draws. We only had one draw in the last 20 matches so I think it’s no longer necessary to bet on both draws and wins to break even on draws. Just bet on wins. In round 17, value bets were cashed by West Ham, Newcastle and Liverpool supporters.
The only loss by my favourites was very interesting. Southampton has a new coach who installed a more physical, active and aggressive style of play. In his second game he scored a major upset over Arsenal in Round 17. We’ll have to see how Southampton does for the rest of the season. Good luck with round 18. A lot of holiday soccer is about to be played. There will be 40 matches between now and January 3. Ray Stefani |
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Good stuff Ray Liverpool one of my main bets start of the season Extra bonus,,get my money back if they run 2nd behind City |
Yes, big thanks Ray. Still room to work either City or Liverpool as all-ups with my pacing, chasing & racing longer-shots.
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And Manchester United have announced the departure of coach Jose Mourinho after their worst start to a season since 1990-91
A new caretaker manager will be appointed until the end of the current season, while the club conducts a thorough recruitment process for a new, full-time manager, according to the official statement. |
EPL Round 19
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Merry Christmas everyone. The boxing day matches start shortly. The spirit of giving was alive at Chelsea and Man City. Chelsea lost at home to Leicester which had decimal odds of 11 to win while Man City somehow found a way to lose at home to Crystal Palace that rewarded their supporters with a payoff of 21. I wonder how many takers there were, even at 21.
I think the teams are playing exhausted and have 3 more matches through January 3. Also, Southampton's rating lies a bit behind where it should be with a new coach and newfound success. It takes a few weeks to adjust. Merry Christmas to all! Ray Stefani |
Making Sense of Congested Fixtures
Several times last season, I mentioned startling outcomes that happened when teams played matches that did not involve a week’s rest. These are the “congested fixtures”. There are two types of those pesky fixtures. First, a team could have had the normal rest before a match but the next match is to be played in 3 or 4 days. Wanting to play smart, the players may pace themselves to avoid injury and fatigue, especially considering that many players on top teams also play for country and in cup matches. The second case is where players take the pitch following a match played just 3 or 4 days before. Then, the players are more fatigued than usual. Generally, anything that disrupts the pattern of play by a strong team can be expected to aid a weaker team.
I went back to my 2017-2018 predictions. I had calculated bets for 14 rounds with congested fixtures and 16 rounds with normal rest. I found that there was a profit in only 21% of the rounds with congested fixtures, compared to a profit in 62% of the rounds played with normal pacing. The odd results generally happened during congested fixtures. For the 19 rounds so far this season, I had time to apply my betting methods to 17. Of the five with congested fixtures, betting to win provided profit in 20% (almost the same as 21% for last season). For the 12 rounds played with normal pacing, using bets to win, there was a profit in 58% of the rounds (almost the same as 62% for last season). Now, get this: last week during round 18, I had mentioned how odd it was for Man City to lose to Crystal Place, when Crystal Palace supporters cashed decimal odds of 21. In round 19, Man City lost for the third time this season, this time to Leicester. My point is that all three losses came during congested fixtures. With normal pacing, Man City were undefeated. Because of the largely unpredictable results during congested fixtures, keeping your money in your pocket for those matches may be your best “bet”. |
EPL Round 20
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Check out my comments about betting during congested fixtures. Rounds 20 and 21 both leave players with little rest and are congested fixtures. Later, rounds 24, 25, 27 and 28 will have congested fixtures.
Get ready for new years! Cheers, Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 21
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Last season, I demonstrated the unpredictability of congested fixtures by pointing out that over several weeks of those fixtures, a bettor could make a profit by following the preposterous strategy of betting on a draw in every match. That led to suggesting a system to take the risk out of draws by splitting bets between draws and wins. This season, here is an equally preposterous strategy. There were so many unexpected upsets during the congested fixtures of rounds 18, 19 and 20, that a bet on every underdog would have made a profit of 220% (round 18), 40% (round 19) and 70% (round 20). Round 21 starts tomorrow. It seems that the best strategy for congested fixtures is to stay away from betting those rounds (which also means you do not have to split bets between draws and wins on normally-spaced fixtures).
I suppose you could tinker with some kind of contrarian strategy for congested fixtures. Liverpool is now ahead of Man City in my rating systems. I think the rest of the season will be a battle between those two. Happy New Year to all. Ray Stefani |
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Go The Reds! Prosperous New Year to you Ray. |
EPL Round 22
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I hope many of you had a chance to watch the Man City-Liverpool match. There are good games, great games and then a new adjective is needed for that match. Of course, there were enough amazing individual skills to fill your screen. Even more impressive were the team tactics. One team would find a way to get through the defense to shoot on goal, only to have seemingly unstoppable goals cleared away from the goal line: all of this after both teams had just finished three matches with little rest between. It was a master class in soccer gamesmanship. City and the Reds are tied on goal difference. Liverpool leads by 0.1 rating points. Should be a race to the finish
Only 4 of my favorites won the 7 matches that were not drawn. a typical scenario for congested fixtures. I suggested for round 21 that contrarian betting methods seem to work, as crazy as that is. If you bet one unit on each of my 10 underdogs for Round 21, you would have gotten back 4 on Leicester, 4 on Burnley and another 4.33 on Crystal Palace for a total of 12.33, giving you a 23% profit on turnover, making four straight weeks that crazy strategy returned a profit. All teams have ample rest before the next round, so hopefully sanity will be restored. Good luck with round 22. Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 23
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In Round 22, Burnley and Watford supporters went away happy.
The league table is about where it was before the recent glut of 40 matches. Tottenham leads on points. Man City has a lead on goal difference. The top two have opened a small lead ahead of the contenders. We should have an really close race to the wire! Enjoy the fun. Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 24
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Rounds 24 and 25 have congested fixtures. Round 24 will be at midweek followed by round 24 that weekend.
I noticed a big change this season. A 13-season average for the EPL showed 27% draws. Last season, with 27% draws after round 23, there had been 62 draws in 230 matches. This season we have only had 19% draws, a record low. After 230 matches there have only been 44 draws. That’s 18 less than last season, almost one less draw each week. Maybe the EPL told the teams not to go through the motions sometimes and play to win instead. Works for me. Good luck with round 24. Ray Stefani |
Hi Ray
Just found this thread and I am eager to learn more. Using this current week as an example. Bournemouth V Chelsea - game fails Rules 1 & 3 Arsenal V Cardiff - fails rules 3 & 4 Fulham V Brighton - Value Bet? with Brighton RB 3.5 > RF 1.76. Working from a $1000 bank as an example - what bet would be made here? Hudderfield V Everton - Everton RB $1.97 > Rf 1.79 Is this a qualifying bet? Man U V Burnley - fails rule 3 & 4 Wolves V West Ham - West Ham RB 3.85 > Rf 3.01 Bet? Liverpool V Leicester - 3 & 4 Newcastle V Man City - 3 & 4 Southhampton V Crystal P - Crystal P RB 3.30 > RF 2.64 Bet? Tottenham V Watford - Tottenham RB1.72 > RF 1.55 Bet? I hope that makes sense but I am just trying to show my interpretation. |
Answers to your questions
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Thanks for your interest. First, you need to go back over this season and last season and read my commentary on congested fixtures. If a team had a week's rest then plays again in 1/2 week and when a team plays a weekend, mid week and another weekend, those are examples of congested fixtures when teams may chose to reserve players and/or energy. I suggest not betting any congested fixtures. Performances may be unexpectedly diverge for what we would expect. Please read my commentary. Round 24 will be followed by mid-week games, so fixtures are congested so I suggest not betting Round 24. Of course, if you have strong feelings about any games, that is your choice to make. There would be value bets on the teams you mentioned were it not for congested fixtures. Please read my example to understand my suggestion not to bet more than 10% of bankroll on any one game and not more 25% of bankroll any one week. The numbers based on 1000 are just suggestions, of course. Regarding Brighton, using the formulas I gave, the Kelly bet would be 1000 (3.5/1.76 - 1)/2.5/2. That would be 198 but I suggest not betting more than 100 (10% of the 1000 bankroll) Good luck, Ray Stefani |
Thanks Ray
I had noted the congested fixtures but had not looked if this round was one yet. I was more needing the clarification on staking and if my assumptions on what games would qualify were on the mark. You have answered that for me now! I will set off to read the past posts now and follow along before embarking on real cash til I’m confident I have the application down pat. Thanks for your reply and the extensive answers. Brian |
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Yes, interesting stats Ray, thanks |
Super Rugby Round 25
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The dreaded monster of congested fixtures has reared its ugly head again. In earlier commentaries, I pointed out that all three of Man City’s previous losses had been during an accelerated schedule (congested fixtures). I also pointed out that during congested fixtures, the play on the field becomes so unpredictable that the crazy gambling scheme of betting on every underdog becomes profitable.
Sure enough, in Round 24, Man City lost for a fourth time during a congested fixture. If someone bet one unit on all 10 underdogs, they would have more than doubled their money winning 5.00 when Bournemouth beat Chelsea and another 16 when Newcastle beat Man City. Liverpool have passed Man City in the computer ratings and have a nice five-point lead in the table. Tottenham did not drop points. Let’s see what crazy things happen in a couple of days during Round 25. I do caution about betting seriously on congested fixtures. Ray Stefani |
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Looking promising kiwiz |
EPL Round 26
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Warning again: Rounds 26-28 constitute congested fixtures. There has been a scheduling change: Everton and Man City will play 2 matches while the others play one.
The Round 25 crazies included Liverpool being held to a draw away to West Ham while Everton lost to Wolves at home. Good luck, Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 27
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Round 27 will only have 8 matches. The Everton-Man City match for that round has already been played. Man City will not be playing, so Liverpool will catch up in games played. The Chelsea-Brighton match has been postponed.
Round 22 will be played 22-24 February. Round 28 will follow a few days later in midweek. Good luck, Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 28
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We are in the congested fixtures mode. After just-finished Round 27 at weekend, we have Round 28 at midweek followed by Round 29 at the weekend.
Ray Stefani |
EPL Round 29
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Round 28 just ended so here comes Round 29 for the weekend.
Good luck, Ray Stefani |
Cheers Ray
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Still plenty of action to come
Last round Sunday 12 May |
Some interesting stats EPL so far this season:
Ten managerial changes Two of those replacement not finalised (caretaker) |
Top goalscorer,,Sergio Agüero,,18 goals
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Highest attendance,,81,332,,Spurs v Gunners,,2 March 2019
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EPL Round 30
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On one hand, Round 29 showed every sign that we are out of the congested fixtures mischief. My favourites won all 8 matches that weren't drawn. On the other hand, Everton and Liverpool played to a 0-0 draw when Everton had given up as many goals as they scored and were playing Liverpool who was fighting to go top. A match to ponder.
From now on, the teams have have a week between games except for a few still after a trophy. Good luck, Ray Stefani |
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