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-   -   Interesting email (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=15719)

Chrome Prince 18th May 2007 08:42 PM

10.40 units profit today.

May Tally

627 wagers
26.36 units profit (less 5% commission)
4.20% POT

April/May Tally

1530 wagers
118.54 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.75% POT

Chrome Prince 19th May 2007 05:58 PM

A loss of 11.51 units today, after it was looking very good around 2:30pm.

May Tally

679 wagers
15.43 units profit (less 5% commission)
2.27% POT

(well behind target, but still in profit)

April/May Tally

1582 wagers
107.60 units profit (less 5% commission)
6.80% POT

Chrome Prince 20th May 2007 05:23 PM

Today, Sunday was an 8.35 unit profit.

I seem to be playing pogostick for May, with no real headway nor no real loss ensuing, but sooner or later it's going to turn dramatically one way or the other, still I'm happy to be in profit after some 1,634 live bets and a profit of nearly 116 units or 7.10% POT.

My actual unit profit is a little higher, as I have been reporting with 5% commission taken out, my commission rate is a lot lower, but for fairness sake, I wanted to post the starting rate of deduction.

Chrome Prince 20th May 2007 05:31 PM

Mark,

There have been 176 favourites @$2.00 or less opening for a profit of $17.20 units on laying.

Using my method on those shorties is showing less than half that profit, so I think you are correct and we should just lay all of those ones.

Interesting to note that the close @ $2.00 or less would also show an $18.20 unit profit laying.

So you can use that approach two-fold.

Mark 21st May 2007 10:52 AM

CP

If they are a lay, I'm happy to lay, but if the system says back, I stay out.

Chrome Prince 21st May 2007 06:11 PM

Today was a small loss of 3.11 units

Crackone 21st May 2007 08:35 PM

Hi Chrome Prince not sure if you have the unitab ratings. If you have you may want to look at the drifters that are rated at 100 , and the firmers as well.

Chrome Prince 21st May 2007 09:38 PM

Yes, Crackone,

I have 'em, might be interesting to run that scenario when they coincide with the selections.
I have the theory that the result might be similar, but I'll run it tomorrow and post back the results.

Chrome Prince 21st May 2007 11:45 PM

Sorry Crackone,

I have to reneg on my posting, as I only have the metro ratings and it would take me too much time to download them all or even look them up manually.

As I said before, I have a feeling that the results might be similar.

If anyone wants to do it, then they can post it here.

Chrome Prince 22nd May 2007 04:03 PM

A nice profit of 19.31 units today.

May Tally

785 wagers
40.14 units profit (less 5% commission)
5.11% POT

April-May Tally

1688 wagers
132.31 units profit (less 5% commission)
7.84% POT

P.S. Maximum win dividend still $8.00
*Average win dividend $3.40

Back to my very first posting on this thread, the hypothesis of the email is incorrect because it was a generality and assumed that you are going to back ALL firmers, or Lay ALL drifters.
By applying a little investigation, it can be proven that by selectively backing some firmers and laying others, and by selectively backing some drifters and laying others, a profit can be made over thousands of races, providing you are betting into low percentage markets.


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