Plays for today gents, still $2.30 unit size, i feel some winners coming haha. Also i'll update my database tonight (if I get a chance) and provide you with a bunch of stats for those interested - based on my live betting and also historical stats including testing such as venue, day, saddlecloth, race no. etc.

Doomben - Race 7

No.
12 Seeking More

Doomben - Race 5

No.
6 Longshoreman

Gosford - Race 3

No.
5 Oceans

Gosford - Race 5

No.
8 Sweet Talkin Woman

Gosford - Race 6

No.
8 Gibraltar's Gem

Gosford - Race 7

No.
3 Ricci Royal

Sale - Race 5

No.
5 Phantom Brew

Sale - Race 6

No.
4 Now And Zen

Hi Guys,

Sorry I haven't got any stats posted yet, been quite busy with work and personal stuff. As soon as I get a chance i'll get everything in here, todays plays:

Rockhampton - Race 4

No.
7 Ten Seconds

Rockhampton - Race 5

No.
2 Cyclone Billy

Wyong - Race 6

No.
3 Night Moves

Warrnambool - Race 6

No.
2 Run Diego

Port Lincoln - Race 1

No.
4 Going Strong

Port Lincoln - Race 6

No.
1 Son Of A Gun

Northam - Race 7

No.
3 Clever I Am

Plays for today, will post more later for other races:

Kyneton - Race 8

No.
1 Kid Dynamite

Orange - Race 4

No.
1 Private Taber

Another placing at Orange, i've been getting a LOT of 2nd and 3rd's lately which makes me think even though my SR is down compared to testing, is that I need to stick at it because i'm around the mark and it may just be an average month. Here are the last few plays for tonight:

Narrogin - Race 5

No.
4 Milnathort

Narrogin - Race 6

No.
4 Enshrined

Cranbourne - Race 7

No.
7 Montana Man

Sunshine Coast - Race 4

No.
1 Endless Tower

Here's todays plays gents. It's been a poor run lately, maybe i'm hoping or wishing but I just got a feeling there could be some winnings today:

Eagle Farm - Race 2

No.
2 Theft

Eagle Farm - Race 4

No.
1 Marked

Eagle Farm - Race 5

No.
6 The White Hope

Rosehill - Race 3

No.
3 Cantonese

Rosehill - Race 4

No.
6 Zauberflote

Rosehill - Race 7

No.
5 Leviosa

Moonee Valley - Race 2

No.
2 You Think So

Moonee Valley - Race 5

No.
5 Shihabi

Moonee Valley - Race 6

No.
13 Mouro

Moonee Valley - Race 7

No.
4 Hollywood

Morphettville Pk - Race 4

No.
6 Fidesdi

Morphettville Pk - Race 6

No.
6 Esprit De Bullet

Morphettville Pk - Race 8

No.
8 Zai Jian

Ascot:

Ascot - Race 1

No.
2 Excelorada

Ascot - Race 3

No.
8 He's Starkers

Ascot - Race 4

No.
5 Moonlight Bay

Ascot - Race 5

No.
5 Kerrific

Ascot - Race 6

No.
12 Peggie's Dream

Ascot - Race 7

No.
1 Luke's Luck

Ascot - Race 8

No.
5 Barakey

Ascot - Race 9

No.
1 Luckygray

Ascot - Race 10

No.
2 Geiger Rio

Strike rate was up but odds were very unfortunately very poor.

The Paradox
 

This illustrates something that I find philosophically interesting. We "raters" use methods which are designed to find the winner of a race and which are not designed around 'price'. We leave it up to the ratings user whether or not they accept the price that is on offer.

However, many users want the strike rate (that a good rater generates) combined with odds that are an expression of the extreme unlikeliness of the happening coming to pass.

For the past few Saturdays I have circulated my subscribers (at no extra cost) with a "laylist" which sets out +/- 75 of the unlikeliest chances for Sat. Metro races. Yesterday we were pottering along as usual with <2% SR when my lay in Ascot R3 "The Regulator" crossed the line first @ $36+. That horse hasn't been closer to the front than 4 len. for a year and yet on a big race day it performed :-) This happenstance generated some acrimonious correspondence but illustrates the dichotomy that faces both the 'rater' and the 'punter'.

Should the punter be satisfied with an evens Fav. and doubling his money when it wins or should he join the search for the (unreachable in my opinion) goal of a 50% SR with $36 dividends ?? Which takes me back to my first paragraph.

All part of life's rich tapestry :-)

Food for thought indeed, demodocus!

I also find that immensely interesting from a human perspective - shines some light on what is achievable, what isn't.. also the illusions most us carry when it comes to assessing a horses chances given existing information v the returns we expect.

And also...
Is this a sport on which we can have a bit of a flutter or play out an obsession of a kind or something we prefer to focus on every day/week = 99% of punters?

OR

Can - should it be treated as a business in which to yield a return on an investment.. Just as owners / jockeys / trainers / bookies / race tracks-clubs / advertisers and the media do, and run as such as best we can = 1% of us??

Perhaps it is also a reflection of the nature of the gambler and also us as human beings.. In reality I suspect that most of us are looking for a free ride or windfall, easy way out, short cut to riches and early retirement, winning the jackpot etc but expect to give very little in return for the prize.


Come down to basic human nature. I suppose.. what would we do without it, eh (and can we do to change it, if anything?)


Cheers LG

Hi Guys, plays for today and below i'll reply to your posts:

Sunshine Coast - Race 6

No.
9 Mishani Warrior

Goulburn - Race 1

No.
1 All Conquering

Goulburn - Race 2

No.
1 Tiger Territory

Goulburn - Race 6

No.
3 Grecian Melody

Goulburn - Race 7

No.
17 Browden

Ballarat - Race 4

No.
10 Gypsy's Best

Ballarat - Race 5

No.
3 Fantastic Porscha

Ballarat - Race 7

No.
3 Hot Lover

Ballarat - Race 8

No.
4 Sertorius

Ballarat - Race 9

No.
10 Rare Bear

Clare - Race 6

No.
5 Tasteofenergy


Ok in relation to the discussion, my ratings/plays aren't built on chasing odds or strike rate, it's about finding the horse with all the right elements/form to win the race whether thats a $10 horse or a $2 horse. Maybe I should look more into only betting overlay's etc however my testing shows my current method works and overall my average odds make up for the strike rate.

For instance in the last week or so when I haven't been having the best time with my ratings in terms of being profitable, there's been a very high rate of placings. Also yesterday I unfortunately was playing with the track conditions at MV which lead me to bet Muoro instead of Lord of Brazil. So I went from potentially winning @ $6 odds to losing my stake which was quite annoying and something i've addressed. Also note while the win strike rate was back at a decent level (7 winners from 22 bets), there were also 8 placings in addition to that, a lot of them coming 2nd. This makes me feel like i'm certainly around the mark and that my ratings haven't suddenly got worse, but just that they are going through a rough patch which ill be riding out. Essentially if i'm on LOB yesterday and 1 or 2 more of those placings get up, i've had a really profitable day.

I by no means have a complete polished product which is why i'm live betting it with small amounts to adjust and tweak moving forward so I can eventually through more money at it. But I do feel i'm pretty close to where I need to be.

demodocus, i've got some queries on your service, am I able to email you?