OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - MELBOURNE CUP 3200M 6th November, 2007

I've finally had a good look at the form today and boy is this a weak race. You could build a house with all the hype [it's that solid] talking this race up in the media.
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MASTER O'REILLY
The one to beat on recent form.
ZIPPING 6g
Won a G2 a year ago and had a 3rd in a G2 over 1600m at MV Sept. this year.
Strung 6w together in a row in 2005 in modest races, but only 2w out of 10 since. Has been consistently racing above his class in my opinion. Keeps looking good but never goes on with it [you know what I mean]. Might place.
PRINCESS COUP 4m
Needs a good or dead 4 at worst.
MAHLER
Only had 6 starts and too inexperienced I think for such a big event.
PURPLE MOON 5g
Won over the distance but it was a weak $6k race. Best efforts: Won at York in Aug. over 2800m HCP 280K and won a Listed race $45k. Place chance for me.
SIRMIONE 4g
An Encosta de Largo smokey from Bart who has come good, right on queue. If sneaky old Bart is ever going to win another MC this is his big chance, as it is as weak as water.
MAYBE BETTER
Been up for 7 runs this prep. and the form has been woeful. Won a G3 a year ago but hasn't fired a shot since, not even a place. Maybe never again in this life.
EFFICIENT 4g
Inefficient and bored with racing. Done nothing since last year but could win a country C1 to pay a few feed bills perhaps?
GALLIC 8g
A Zabeel horse. Age is a worry but going strong. Barrier is another big worry. Can place or even win if it gets lucky enough from b24 ?
ESKIMO QUEEN 4m
Another one bored with racing and going nowhere in this life. Try back to own sex.
ON A JEUNE 7g
On a hiding to nothing. Apart from a 3rd 1st up at Balaklava last year, hasn't won or placed since 2005. Not even in a miserable $20k race.
BLUTIGEROO
Name sound like 'Glue' dosn't it? Hasn't gotten closer than 7ths. this prep. from 6 starts, but did win a G1 at Rosehill in March this year and 1 lth. off Gallic over Cup distance for a 5th. in a G1 in May. Dead or slow is OK. Place chance.
DOURO VALLEY 6g
Another by Ecosta de Largo and at least the form has been consistent and good this year [a rare thing among a lot of these runners]. Wet OK and a winning or place chance for sure.
SCULPTOR 5h
A heavily raced horse [44 starts]. Has never won a Group race in 10 Group race attempts in NZ [he placed once in a G2 in 2005]. The fact he won a G3 on Sat. is a clear indication of how bad this season's runners have mostly been. OK in the wet.
THE FUZZ
Peaked start before last in my opinion and needs a spell.
BLUE MONDAY 7g
Last win was a weak G3 over 2200m 14 mths ago. Considering the competition here, a place chance?
DOLPHIN JO 5g
Form OK. Beat the Fuzz at Flemington 3 starts back but has been up for 7 starts. If he has one more good run in him he might place or even win this as he ran a 2nd [New Kid in Town/Dolphin Joe/Sentire] 5th up at the distance at Sandown in the slow last prep. and Sandown form is good Flemington form. He'll grow and extra leg on the wet track and is a win or place chance.
TAWQEET
Last win was a over a year ago. A bit of an improvement last start but has been racing like a donkey who doesn't want to be there.
SCENIC SHOT
Last start was a shocker and probably needs a spell.
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No thanks:
TUNGSTEN STRIKE ?
LAZER SHARP
BLACK TOM
SARRERA [heavy tracker].
RAILINGS [how did he get in?]
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My early selections in order:
MASTER OREILLY, DOURO VALLEY, DOLPHIN JOE, SIRMIONE, GALLIC, BLUTIGEROO, PURPLE MOON

Considering the weights, odds and the Sandown form over this distance in the slow, I think Dolphin Joe is a good e/w smokey.