I don't know what your lays are and assumed 1 per race.
4 lays x $999 = $3996 risk.
More than 1 per race obviously reduces the risk. And if you're getting a rush from laying then you're in trouble. My opinion only.

I do concede that your strike rate is commendable.

Onya MG. Goodluck with it.
RP

Mark, I now know you mean a total liability of $3996m to win a paltry $22.

Today's smiles were very small which is not unexpected, however every now and then up pops a horse that is fancied in the market. To me it's the strike rate that has been the method's winner.

Just read your posting - again thanks for the good wishes, and hope the many filters continue to prove worthwhile.

I'll be checking your selections so there's no errors. With that sort of liability do you foresee any difficulty getting your order matched?
Cheers RP

Six Hundred three score and six
 

MG I notice you skipped the Devils number 666 and went straight to the next level. Way to go.
RP

Hi, RP.

Thanks for checking the selections.

No, I don't think I'll have any problems with getting my bets matched because they are layed S.P. About a year ago I layed two horses each for $10,000 S.P. to see if there would be any problems being matched - there wasn't and fortunately they were beaten. I'm under the impression Betfair matches (or they arrange) for S.P. bets to be matched.

In general you are right. If you go and try to lay at SP for $10,000 and there is only $4K being bet on SP then they are going to look at the exchange to work out how to price the SP odds for the horse. If there was $2K at $100 and 2K at $500 and then $2K at $800 then your SP price is going to blow out to the $800 mark.

It all depends on liquidity. The more you lay the higher the price will be that you lay at. Its kind of like the tote but not quite as severe.

Mind you 10K to lay at $200 is only $50 for someone to bet so I am not surpirsed you can easily lay the $10K.

As mark posted MG, at a ratio of 20/4000, your risk reward is way out of whack, but there's no denying that the method is holding up, so hats off & upwards & onwards, we are here to gamble afterall.


Just don't forget to breath;)

Hi, U.B.

When I had my $10,000 Lay bets I looked at the Exchange when each race began. There was little difference between the Buy and Sell Price which is normal but the S.P. price also was on a par with the Exchange. Maybe I was just lucky there was suitable liquidity.

Today's selections:

Canterbury
3/5
6/5

Ascot
1/6
6/12
8/14, 17, 18
9/9

Launceston
6/8, 12


Hopefully I've got them right and that there are no accidents.

Looks like the larger liabilities can blow the SP out, eg PR1 SP $168 & around $40+ the totes/fixed price, or is that the normal ratio you expect with these?

Yes, it was $168 S.P but it's Lay price on the Exchange was $300.

In the same race No 4's S.P. price was $32 yet on the exchange it's Bet price was $36 and it's Lay price was $38...???

I've had a quick look at horses that are at least $30 on S.P. - it seems their Lay prices on the Exchange are higher than S.P.

This might suggest if one wants to Lay an outsider it could be better to do so on S.P. than on the exchange?

Today's 10 selections were beaten for a profit of $126.14.

Michael, if I could make a suggestion/observation, call it what you will.

While I am very much the skeptic when it comes to the long term viability of laying long-shots one or two out, there's little doubt your onto something & doing well, so you have opened my eyes a bit, along with many others I am sure.

As there is a limited amount of funds available at the wide end of the market, I now believe you are doing yourself a disservice listing the selections each day & I am certain you will start to see your average SP drifting, if that isn't already happening & suspect it is with many jumping on your bandwagon. (No, I am not one of them & not posting this trying to protect my pocket).

Much the same as someone who develops a successful favourite system, then lets the world know but then cannot make a profit as he can no longer get the prices he needs, you could well be facing a similar outcome. In fact it wouldn't surprise to see your system pop up in a magazine shortly & that would surely kill it off.

Anyway best of continued luck to you as you have done what most cannot, but reckon you should consider letting this thread slip off the front page.

Thanks for your advice, Stugots.

I will periodically check the S.P. price (for this and the neural system) and if it continually exceeds the Lay price on the exchange I'll know something's amiss, then I'll have to do something about it. But I hope it never happens.

Today's selections ($999 liability bets):

Goulburn
3/2
6/16

Sale
4/13
5/5, 15

Rocky
5/14

Albany
1/8, 12
2/1, 5
6/10
7/13

I am a good friend of MG and I have warned him of this 6 mths ago
He is such a nice guy he can't help himself, helping others
He works very hard at these systems and I told him that it will one day, pop up as a successful system in some publication ( for a price).
I am sure his lay prices are much larger than when he first started.
I only wish him the best in future

They are!
 

I've been following MG 's system but don't get a fill on his selections very often because I set the bot to max odds of 50. I can't see the risk/reward over that. Then you get ripped off on prices! Look at Goulburn 3/2 Irish Rocks: 82 on the tote, 550 BF Back & 640 Lay.
Forget it!
RP

Thanks for the kind and encouraging words, gents.

I don't know if my (or anyone's) large lay bets are affecting the S.P. price. Goulburn 3/2 was a very disappointing price, but I think this is quite common for long shots. For example no.3 in the same race was not a selection but it's price(s) was also just as disappointing. Both horses' S.P. price was much lower than their Lay price shown on the Exchange which does not worry me, especially as their S.P. price is slightly higher than the Bet price on the exchange.

Today's 11 selections were all beaten for a profit of $103.16.

Michael I think you will find that the exchange prices are now often longer than they previously were as punters are also laying your selections on the exchange, & in doing so they are matching up many of the lay bets that previously would have converted to SP if unmatched at the jump.

Anyway there's an easy way to check & that would be to calculate your % returns since you moved to the larger stake, for example yesterday I believe there were 11 bets so -

$103.16/10989 = .939%

If you do this daily & list the results I would be happy to create a graph to display if your returns are diminishing or not.

Thanks, Stugots.

I began laying for $999 last Tuesday. The results since then as described by you are:

Tuesday = 0.179
Wednesday =0.79
Yesterday = 0.939

How do I calculate if there is an accident? I'm still not convinced the prices are diminishing so I'm going to do some further research.

Today's selections:

Ballarat
2/10, 13
3/10
4/1, 2, 7, 14, 17

Thought you had been going longer with $999 so if you include the $333 results as well it should provide a clearer picture & for now exclude any accidents & just record the results for your wins.

Today's 8 selections were beaten for a profit of $90.98.

Stugot's factor = 0.878. I haven't included the total $666 liability of the two Neural Method selections, To keep it simple and convenient I'll do it for just the Don Scott method even though the factor will not be entirely accurate.

Today's selections ($999 bets):

Queanbeyan
1/12
2/8
3/10
5/10
7/10

Kembla
1/4, 12, 15
2/2
4/12

Morphetville
8/12

Toowoomba
5/10

good luck today.

Thanks, U.B.

A good day - there were 11 smiles from the 11 selections for a profit of $252.13.

A factor of 0.44

Today's selections ($999)

Albury
3/2, 8, 10
4/16

Bendigo
4/3, 14

Sun Coast
2/7, 11, 13
6/12

Murray Bridge
4/5, 13
5/10

Wangaratta
2/1
3/7, 10
4/9

Devenport
5/4, 11

Bunbury
3/6
5/11, 12, 18
7/4, 7, 10, 11, 13
9/3, 12, 13

A disaster - from the 29 selections there were 3 accidents for a loss of $2,118.33.

Since increasing the liability to $999 last Tuesday there has been a loss of $1,523.68.

I've still got some confidence in the method because if I had layed every selection for $999 from day one I'd be almost $10,000 in front.

Ouch bad day. You will probably go 5 days without an accident now.

I hope your'e right, UB.

Today's selections:

Coonamble
1/2, 3
2/9, 13
5/11
7/14

W'bool
1/1, 8
3/6
4/12

Toowoomba
1/4
5/10

Esperance
1/10, 11
2/10

Geraldton
1/5
2/8, 15
3/9
5/10
6/8, 11

MG, how many winning days in a row up until yesterdays accidents?

I ask because theres probably a fair argument to be made for either suspending betting after X amount of winning days in a row, or even start backing them to win for a short period.

The only thing I really know about laying is you can't stop them winning;) You look to have a profitable method but it will still bite you now & then, as you well know.

There was 6 successive winning days.

I suppose it's like in roulette waiting for red or black to be successful for a certain amount of spins and then change colour relying on the law of averages.

It might have some logic but I wouldn't get a kick out of doing that.

Yeah, but are we here to make money or get a buzz on? If moneys not the motivation then I get it, but otherwise...

Simple motto I use - 'whatever it takes' - unfortunately it is also Essendon FC's slogan this year but that's another story;)

My motivation is to make money and also get a rush from it.

However I don't at the moment get the same buzz from backing that I do from laying.

A good day - from the 19 selections there were 19 smiles for an excellent profit of $420.94 mainly thanks to Geraldton 2/8.

The aim should not be to make money. The aim should be to make the right decisions that, then, leads to money being made.

And you can quote me on that. ;)

Of course everyone gets a rush from money jumping into their betting bank but I bet they get more satisfaction at the way they arrived at their pick to win or lose the race for them or, for me, that I traded right therefore winning on a particular race.

Whatever you are doing in life, whether you are using rules, systems, trading, etc, you first need to make the right decisions before you can make money.

Laying requires a different mindset from backing. Backing longshots is having a series of small losses with a good winner here and there. Laying longshots is lots of small wins with a large loss now and then. You know the losses are coming and you have to accept them. If a person can't do that he shouldn't be laying.

Today's selections ($999).

Muswellbrook
1/5, 16
2/4, 8, 10, 13, 17
4/4, 8, 9
5/8
8/15
9/13

Traralgon
1/7
3/3, 15
7/14
8/11, 12

Not a bad day - from the 19 selections there were 19 smiles for a profit of $207.12.

Good work Micheal.