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It seems you are stuck in some old era Darky. You need to keep evolving in this game to stay ahead. Perhaps that has been your downfall. I know a few people who live off the punt and the majority of races they bet on involves just 1 selection. It can't be that stupid then, can it? |
Lets break this down a bit, i think most people would be happy with 50k a year from punting, now what would it take to get that sum of money .
We will ignore the fact you need winners with out them nothing is possible, now if you could obtain 5% POT you would need to turn over $1m this works out to a bit under $20k a week, now if you had 50 selections that's about $400 a selection. Working on a 2% of bank bet you would need a bank of $20k now none of this takes in to account compounding of the bank or downturns or anything else that might happen it is just basic maths. What this shows you is that you don't need huge amounts of money to make it on the punt, now 20k bank is not a small amount of money and if you don't have that then start with what you have and work on it. Remember this is a business and 50k a year is a nice wage and many businesses start up costs are a lot more. In my mind turnover is king and i would aim for 100 plus bets a week. |
I have found that the magic percentage to target per day , is 3.5% increase on bank per day.
No more than this. If one has the ability to do that every day, thats approx 25% increase on bank per week. Useing the Fibonacci compounding rule of 72 That means the bank would double every 2.88weeks. 72 divided by 25 = 2.88 It can be easily done with the right stratergy. e.g. Dutching multiple horses and using a well thought out staking plan. The secret is having the discepline to stop once the percentage is reached. What generally happens, is that a punter finds himself reaching the 3.5% fairly easy , then says to himself , "lets go again". For some reason , it starts to get harder & harder to get the next 3.5% until its all given back & some. |
Bhagwan,
If you are relying on staking plans and stopping at targets for the day, it generally means your selection method does not have a winning edge. |
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Good solid stuff Shaun, you and I know that is the facts as well (i.e trial and error) although I disagrree with 1 point though, the 2% bit is OK in itself sounds reasonable, but for the vast majority this after a 2 or 3 bad runs would bring on the "RUNS" big time! So I advocate either LEVEL stakes or at best 1% never reducing! |
Personalised percentages...
To my mind party the question of bank percentage is bonded to one's long term SR.
I comfortably run at way more than 2% of bank but that is only because I have the luxury of enjoying an upper end SR. On this subject I should point out that I feel many people don't know what their SR is. You might have been strictly sticking to a system for many months and think "OK I've got this sussed and the SR is x amount" but then the next year it might perform way better. So what then would the sytems SR be? ( or it might go belly up, but the same problem.....how to calculate SR ) Depending on the system, it might take years to get a spot on assessment. I think it might have been Bagwhan that said whatever you think your run of outs should be with a system's SR then it is a good idea to work on the assumption of doubling it. I use that as a guide anyway and think it good advice. |
Oh i agree with you both on the bet size and staking, i only used 2% as an example.
Only the individual punter knows what they would be comfortable betting, my example just shows that you don't need a massive bank but i would also say it might be best to have double what ever you think you need. |
Lighthuman 2010,
Betting 1 horse a race is a recipe for disaster. There is always a 2 or more horses in any race with a good chance of winning. |
Darky,
We really have to break down your thought processes and rebuild you for you to have any chance of success on the punt. Of course every race has more than 1 winning chance in the race. Every horse that jumps out of the barrier has some sort of chance of winning its race. There is many winning methods out there. Some professionals will only bet 1 horse per race on most occassions. Some professionals will bet multiple horses or savers per race on most occasions. There is people out there making good money using either of the above methods. That is FACT. For you to rule out completely, betting only 1 horse per race, is very naive and makes you look ignorant. (I really do worry you may never make it) There is no logic behind your theory. There is many smarter people than you who make good money, and have done so for many years, betting mainly just 1 horse per race. |
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