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- - Living on the punt... Part1 (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=14361)

jfc, I have not breached terms and conditions by disagreeing with the mathematics.

Others did by namecalling etc.

Please show me where I breached the Terms and Conditions and I'll remove myself!

The EasyRun made wild claims regarding mathematics, it didn't matter how he selected his horses if the basics were missing.

If I were to post the same wild claims, I'd expect to be challenged as well.

I'd either explain myself or leave.

jfc, your demonstrations were nothing more than demonstrations and not applicable to the real world of punting where losing runs happen.

Whatever the case, the easyrun could easily have copped the challenge and made me look silly by proving me wrong.

He couldn't or chose not to.

I have no issue with someone coming up with a new angle or idea, but the maths don't add up, and I believe that his figures are totally unrealistic.

Others can decide for themselves.

It's incredibly difficult to make money on a straight win over prolonged period of time on a Tote due to their take.

Exotics are far more complex in the TAB take, as there are so many more combinations, and can offer the best value. Pkus the way I work out exotics is to find out which horses cannot win, rather than look for those that can. Especially attempting to discount favourites as many punters go

Favourite-Field-Field

Nearly snatched the Melbourne Cup biggy last year as I opposed Makybe Diva for winning and had On A Jeune, Xcellent, Lachlan River, Leica Falcon, you name it for the first two places. I know it didn't happen, but I had many reasons to take on Makybe Diva, it didn't pay off, but if it had I would be driving a Ferrari now. All for a $230 bet...

Value is the name of the game, especially on the tote, and from my experience the bigger the pool the more chance of finding value and the better chance of making a profit.

Chrome Prince,

After taking the trouble to review relevant material before replying I now find my completely innocuous posts have been removed!

They were essentially mathematically impeccable calculations on how many bets it would take to double or triple a Bank given Odds, Edge and #Bets parameters objectively derived from the verifiable Gold Specials.

And in particular they satisfied the question about losing runs. If you use the Kelly Criterion then you cope optimally with the dilemma of wealth growth versus losing runs.

And they were as applicable to the real world of punting as any hypothetical post of this nature could be.

Quote.

"All this before TheEasyRun had an opportunity to mention what "it" actually was"

TheEasyRun has had plenty of opportunity to state his case and still does.

He has had plenty of detractors with regard to this thread (including myself) but on the other hand there have been any number of supportive posts.

TheEasyRun has posted several rambling contributions to his thread but so far,other than some very odd claims has said very little.

I have no animosity whatever towards TheEasyRun,but this is a (reasonably) open forum and like every other member I have a right to challenge any statements that I choose.

OK EasyRun,,it's dead simple,,,Prove your detractors wrong.

No Staking Plan
No Each Way Betting.
No Exotics.
Jockeys,,unimportant.
Trainers,,unimportant
Barriers,,unimportant
Form,,unimportant.
etc etc etc.....

Its a simple challenge.Tell us the secrets of "Listing to the right"

shaun is on the money and i would say mark is too, but still interseted to hear more from ITS SOOOO EASY . LEAVE HIM ALONE

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfc

Assume for argument's sake that TheEasyRun is genuine and might actually have something of interest to contribute.

Why on earth would he want to continue now?

He has clearly been welcomed with prejudicial hostility which is obviously set to continue.

Not just from Chrome Prince.

Now apparently his crimes are "saying nothing new" and "saying very little". There are very few here and everywhere that could pass those tests.

And the so-called challenges are far bigger offences than anything he might be likely to say. But don't get me started...

This joint will continue to remain in its prolonged rut while antics like this prevail.

jfc,

Let's assume that TheEasyRun is genuine and has something to contribute, if it works and he believes in it, he has had more than enough opportunity to repond to any challenge.

He never reponded with anything of substance, just threw out all conventional maths, form, jockeys, trainers, barriers etc.
Then continued on in the same way without addressing one question put to him.

He just kept deflecting any debate by saying I'll move onto this topic next.

Prejudicial hostility?

Common sense.

If I came on here and said I'd picked every winner of every race over a month backing one horse, I'd expect to be challenged as well, because it's never been done and flies in the face of reality.

There are ways to achieve the sort of returns he was talking about, but certainly not in the way he was describing. (a la Mark and a few others).

To me, it all smacks of a huge wind up.

Since when is a challenge an offence?

Surely to come onto a public forum and post as if this is the way to do it, is not going to cop some flak when it's all wishy washy and doesn't add up.

Frankly, I know when someone's having a lend of me, I've been round the block enough.

When the maths don't add up I know that this "advice" is either made up or a wind up.

The antics you refer to keep the forum honest.

TheEasyRun is more than welcome to answer the questions put to him at any stage.

I don't see it happening anytime soon.

[QUOTE=Chrome Prince]

1. If I came on here and said I'd picked every winner of every race over a month backing one horse, I'd expect to be challenged as well, because it's never been done and flies in the face of reality.

2.Since when is a challenge an offense?

3.The antics you refer to keep the forum honest.
QUOTE]

1. ....and where exactly did the easy run say that?

2. Since when the guy is a new member and came here just to explain how he punts and what he has found possible, not looking for challenge [which you threw down straight after his first post].

3. Those antics keep this forum empty of [possible ...we'll never know now] progressive thought and fresh ideas ....obviously feared by some.

Hi all

I am sure that most here are intelligent and capable individuals and very astute.

However i feel when someone may want to express themselves we should all take on board this principle:

ONE NEVER STOPS LEARNING

If we start from there we may be more open to allow forumites to say what they feel based on there own experience is correct.

One can always offer a reason of a flaw or praise in the strategy or whatever from a mentoring angle rather than an attack.

Cheers
ubetido

Below is the thread that started all this. I was looking forward to see what TheEasyRun had to say ... you know, some light entertainment. If I treated it like that it would be OK, otherwise it could be seen as an affront to my intelligence. Why would TheEasyRun disappear? I'm not going to guess here, but I have a few views of my own.

I must admit I found the following went completely against common sense. It is LOGICALLY flawed AND WRONG. ***** to say "It simply cannot be done" is BLATANTLY FALSE.

"4. It goes against any real common sense that an ** School Teacher, Mathematition, Engineer, Accountant or any highly educated induvidual, can come up with a numerical/class/time rating system that leads to first a steady income, then on to great wealth. It simply cannot be done."

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheEasyRun

Hi guys.

This is not a post intending to upset anyone, as punting is a game full of memorable moments that I would never wish to take from anyone. It is however a small collection of what I have learnt in the game over the past twenty seven years, posted up to give food for thought to those who would like to take their punting activities to a higher plane......... those who would clearly like to punt horses for a living, or very close to it.

First up, a few basic misconceptions.

1. So called big money "professonal punters" really are not. They are men propped up by money from their buisnesses, inheritence or high incomes, or from stake money hits from horses they own.
In essence they are big money gamblers, not pro punters.
They all have one major thing in common.....they did not get their money from the punt, and if they had to start from scratch and punt up a liveable betting bank they would soon starve!

2. It is a falacy that a massive turnover is needed to show profit over time.
This is for men who have that poor of a selection and staking method, that a very large turnover of money is needed to capitalize on a very skinny profit margin. In reality these type of punters last only as long as other money (or imagination) is proping it up.

3. It's quite false that a very high starting bank of $10,000 to $30,000 or more is needed to start a betting bank off. And false also is the thinking that the bank must be turned over and over like it was inside a washing machine.
The fact is a betting bank must be protected from heavy turnover!

Here is another fact, if the average man clears $30,000 a year in his regular employment, then to match that in punting earnings, he can start off with a bank as little as $4000. And still keep his job. Nirvana for the average bloke on the punt would be around $50,000 a year.....roughly $4000 to $5000 a month. A $6000 starting bank for that is plenty.

4. It goes against any real common sense that an ** School Teacher, Mathematition, Engineer, Accountant or any highly educated induvidual, can come up with a numerical/class/time rating system that leads to first a steady income, then on to great wealth.
It simply cannot be done.

Those are just a few misconceptions and there are of course plenty more, but I would rather go on to selection and staking methods, punting psychology, how to relax into a life on the punt, and why you should never except odds on any bet unless it can return you over $7 to the dollar.

I will post the rest up tommorow in Part 2, and then in Part 3 on Tuesday.

Happy Hunting
TheEasyRun

1. So called big money "professonal punters" really are not. They are men propped up by money from their buisnesses, inheritence or high incomes, or from stake money hits from horses they own.
In essence they are big money gamblers, not pro punters.
They all have one major thing in common.....they did not get their money from the punt, and if they had to start from scratch and punt up a liveable betting bank they would soon starve!

Agreed Mr Logic, and what total **** the above statement is.This appeals to the "duh,yair, yair" brigade, but logic ?? lolololol.